It was supposed to be The Year. Coming off a solid NIT campaign in which they won eight conference games, the Northwestern Wildcats returned nearly everyone of consequence (save the efficient Craig Moore) and had realistic expectations of reaching the school's first-ever NCAA Tournament. Then, mere days before the season opener, leading scorer Kevin Coble suffered a foot injury that would keep him out for the season. Expectations were greatly diminished, as the Wildcats no longer had a returning double figure scorer on their suddenly young roster.

Surprisingly, the Wildcats shook off Coble's absence and started the season 10-1, including solid wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State, and NC State. Their only blemish was a home loss to eventual national runner-up Butler. Could these Wildcats still make 2009-10 The Year?

An overtime loss at Illinois in the Big Ten opener did not bode well, but it was hardly the only missed opportunity on Northwestern's schedule. The Wildcats pulled off resume-building victories over Purdue and Minnesota, but they suffered devastating losses to Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State (twice!). If Northwestern had simply taken care of business in those four games, they'd have finished conference play with an 11-7 record, and a 23-8 mark overall heading into the Big Ten Tournament. That resume, while lacking a bit in signature wins, may have been enough to sneak the Wildcats into the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they settled for another NIT bid, where they lost in the first round at Rhode Island.

The success that Northwestern did achieve last season was almost exclusively due to their offense. Bill Carmody's Princeton system produced 1.09 points per possession in conference play, behind only Wisconsin's offensive juggernaut. John Shurna had a phenomenal sophomore season, playing 94 percent of the possible minutes and posting a 56.1 effective field goal percentage. Freshman Drew Crawford burst onto the scene as an athletic sharpshooter. Michael Thompson continued his progression as a steady, tough floor general with great touch from deep. Sophomore Luka Mirkovic rebounded, blocked shots, and was possibly the Big Ten's best passing big man. These four players all had excellent seasons, and they're all back for 2010-11.

So with all this offensive firepower, how did Northwestern only win seven Big Ten games? With a putrid defense, that's how. The Wildcats allowed conference opponents to score 1.12 points per possession. Let me state this another way: do you remember the 2008-09 Indiana Hoosiers? The team that was almost entirely 3-star freshmen, rebuilt hastily from the ashes of the Kelvin Sampson era? THAT team's defense was slightly better than last season's Northwestern defense. For the Wildcats to finally land their NCAA Tournament white whale, they'll have to improve on the defensive end. We'll delve into whether we think that will happen in our next post.

- Posted by Mike Portscheller