09-10 Overall Record: 20-14
09-10 Conference Record: 7-11
09-10 Conference Efficiency Margin: -0.05 (8^th)
Percent of Returning Minutes: 79.5
Percent of Returning Freshman Minutes: 20.7

Almost all of the room for improvement on this Northwestern squad lies on the defensive end. Sure, replacing Jeremy Nash with a better shooter in Alex Marcotullio and losing human turnover Kyle Rowley from the roster could lead to gains on the offensive end, but the Wildcats were already very good at putting the ball in the hoop. Northwestern doesn't need to become a lock down defense to reach the NCAA Tournament, but some improvement is mandatory. Luckily for the fans in Evanston, there is some reason to hope for a less permissive Northwestern defense.

First off, the Wildcats are tall. Of Big Ten teams, only Illinois and Minnesota had higher effective heights than Northwestern last season, and even the loss of seven footer Rowley shouldn't drop the Wildcats much in this category. With height usually comes blocked shots, and this held true for Northwestern--the Wildcats finished 37th nationally in block percentage. The other more powerful effect of height is two-point field goal defense. It makes sense: it's tough to hit twos over taller players, most especially when there's a significant threat of a blocked shot. This is where the equation fell apart for Northwestern. The Wildcats allowed Big Ten opponents to shoot 54 percent on twos, a ridiculously high number. When including nonconference games, Northwestern allowed 49 percent shooting on twos--better, but still bad.

To show how unusual this combination is, let's take a look at the 36 teams that posted a higher block percentage than Northwestern and what kind of two-point percentage they allowed. Of those 36 teams, only one (Washington State) allowed a higher two-point shooting percentage than Northwestern. A full 28 of those 36 shotblocking teams finished in the nation's top 100 in two-point field goal defense. In general, blocked shots and good two-point defense go hand in hand; for Northwestern, for whatever reason, they didn't. Some improvement in two-point defense seems inevitable, even if it remains a weakness.

Another reason for optimism is that Bill Carmody has a better defensive track record than he showed last season. Over the past seven seasons, only once (2007-08) did he put a worse defense on the floor than last season's. Now, it's not like Carmody is a defensive genius--his best team over that stretch was 62nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency--but his Northwestern teams have almost always been less permissive than last season's edition. With a lot of returning minutes, and arguably the most talent Carmody's had to work with, it's not hard to believe that the defense could improve.

Northwestern should be fine on the offensive end, as they should again be among the conference's most efficient teams. John Shurna, Michael Thompson, and Drew Crawford form a potent core, and it seems likely that the supporting cast will be better this season. Assuming a small improvement on the defensive end, these Wildcats look capable of holding their own in a tough Big Ten. It won't be a slam dunk by any means, but this Northwestern team should have a legitimate shot at the NCAA Tournament.