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Report User Another season, another Big Ten title and Final Four appearance for Tom Izzo. Based on the fact that the Spartans return almost everyone in the rotation, and welcome a strong recruiting class, most analysts put Michigan State atop the Big Ten and in the top 5 overall. But I don’t think that’s right.
It’s not that I think MSU is due for a big step back, it’s just that I don’t think last year’s team was tremendous as the banners would indicate. In the Big Ten, the Spartans were the 4th-best team by efficiency margin, and they really weren’t in screaming distance of Wisconsin:
| Team | Points per Possession | Opponent Points per Possession | Efficiency Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 1.11 | 0.94 | 0.17 |
| Ohio State | 1.08 | 0.96 | 0.12 |
| Purdue | 1.05 | 0.95 | 0.1 |
| Michigan State | 1.05 | 0.97 | 0.08 |
But really, one can make the argument that it’s worse than that. The best player for each of the other three title contenders missed at least a couple of games in the Big Ten season, while the Spartans stayed relatively healthy.
That health did not last into the NCAA tournament, of course, where Kalin Lucas injured his foot in MSU’s matchup with Maryland. Even without their undisputed leader, Michigan State went on to win three more games and just three points away from playing for the national championship, again. But as Final Four runs go, this was not among the most impressive. First was the fact that the Spartans won four games by a combined thirteen points. Then there was the fact that MSU Farokhmaneshed their way out of facing #1 seed Kansas, and Tennessee dispatched of #2 seed Ohio State (against whom Michigan State lost their only matchup of the season, in East Lansing). In short, it was a busted bracket.
Now, I don’t want all of this to sound like I’m dumping on Michigan State or Tom Izzo. Certainly, MSU was still a very good team last year. And I think the fact that Tom Izzo took a less than fantastic team to the final weekend only serves to underscore his genius. And while I’m a big fan of reality-based stats, there’s no denying the fact that banners fly forever. Every Wisconsin fan would gladly trade seasons with Michigan State, efficiency margin be damned.
But when it comes to making predictions, numbers are superior to banners. In the next post, I’ll go over what the numbers think about Michigan State this season.