The offseason could have gone better.  Michigan State went into the offseason knowing that its best player would spend all of it recovering from a serious foot injury.  The recovery is still ongoing, as it sounds like Lucas has yet to regain his exceptional quickness.  Because of Lucas’ injury, the offseason became much more important to the rest of MSU’s backcourt.  

But it didn’t go very well.  For one, Chris Allen was finally kicked off the team, ending the saga that began prior to the start of the Big Ten Tournament.  The circumstances of Allen’s suspension and subsequent dismissal are still cloudy--there’s just been talk of “not being a good teammate” and not meeting “obligations.”  I can’t say I understand the punishment here, either.  Allen is first suspected for a Big Ten Tournament game, but he comes back and plays in each of MSU’s NCAA Tournament games.  Then, he’s on thin ice the entire summer until his dismissal in early August.  Suffice to say, the boundaries of Tom Izzo’s doghouse aren’t entirely clear, but we don’t have all (any) of the facts here, either.

Speaking of Izzo’s doghouse, backup point guard Korie Lucious is currently logging some time in there because of his DUI arrest.  Lucious followed this up with a torn meniscus, which robbed him of some development time.  Even though Lucious should be fully recovered by the time the Spartans open the season, the lost practice time was not ideal considering the sudden lack of backcourt depth.  Though it’s subject to how well freshmen Keith Appling handles the ball, there’s a distinct possibility that the second best point guard on the team right now is Draymond Green.  

But it’s not just ballhanding, either.  Consider the outside shooting numbers of the Spartans in conference play last season (minimum 10 attempts):

As the table illustrates, Allen was Michigan State’s only consistent perimeter threat last season.  Sure, Summers had a great NCAA Tournament (17 for 33 from three point range), but the numbers here indicate that the jury is still out on whether he can be the outside threat that MSU needs.  While the Spartans figure to be interior-focused again this season, if an offense stays in the paint too much for lack of outside skill, the offense slumps.  Just ask Connecticut. 

But let’s talk about what MSU will surely do well this season--rebound.  Green and fellow junior Delvon Roe figure to be the best rebounding frontline in the Big Ten.  This is nothing new to Michigan State, tenacious offensive (and in recent seasons, defensive) rebounding is a staple of Tom Izzo’s system.  The real barometer for MSU’s success has been the offense’s turnover rate.  When it’s low, MSU is nearly unstoppable on offense.  When it’s high, the offense stagnates.  And that’s why I’m not ready to anoint this Spartan team as a likely Final Four candidate.  The offensive rebounding is there, and in Draymond Green Michigan State has one of the best, and most entertaining, players in the country.  But the backcourt is suffering from key offseason losses, injuries, and discipline issues.  The Spartans will be good, but it’s going to take a big effort from the backcourt to make them special.