09-10 Overall Record: 10-21
09-10 Conference Record: 4-14
09-10 Conference Efficiency Margin: -0.19 (11^th)
Percent of Returning Minutes: 90.2
Percent of Returning Freshman Minutes: 46.3

As we said in our recap, last year’s Indiana squad was only marginally improved from the prior season, as they still were incredibly young and inexperienced. This season could very well see the Hoosiers make a much larger improvement, as they return the most overall minutes and the most freshman-to-sophomore minutes in the Big Ten. These numbers portend large improvement, but let’s not forget how deep a hole the Hoosiers are climbing out of. Last season’s efficiency margin was absolutely brutal, and it’s not like things were getting better towards the end of the season. In fact, Indiana’s best Big Ten performances mostly came in the early going, as they managed to score over a point per possession four times in their first nine conference games—a mark they reached only twice in their final 10 games. Similarly, Indiana allowed opponents to score over 1.07 points per possession in each of their final 11 games after playing some decent defense in January. The Hoosiers did not finish the season in a way that inspires confidence.

Still, there’s a lot to like in this team’s profile, most especially the many minutes that went to freshmen last season. In general, a player’s biggest improvement will come between his freshman and sophomore campaigns, so Indiana should get much better collective play from guys like Christian Watford, Jordan Hulls, Derek Elston, and Bobby Capobianco. Also, note that our returning minute numbers above are conference-only, so they don’t include anything from Maurice Creek. For the purposes of this analysis, we can basically consider Creek to be a marquee incoming recruit, except with the bonus of some college experience (perhaps tempered by the downside of his injury recovery). Indiana will also presumably regain the services of sharpshooter Matt Roth, who missed all but two games last season due to injury. Roth shot 38 percent from three as a Big Ten freshman, so he should also be a welcome addition to the rotation once his reportedly minor knee injury is healed. For the purposes of projection, since they didn't log any conference minutes last season, Creek and Roth can be considered part of Indiana’s incoming recruiting class. Both should be productive offensive players, possibly equivalent to bringing in two 4-star freshmen when considering their experience.

Between Creek, Watford, and point guard Verdell Jones, Indiana has no shortage of players willing to take healthy shot diets. Throw in Hulls, Elston, and Roth (plus a bit of improved shooting all around), and this could be a decent offensive bunch. Even 3-star freshmen Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey have played fairly well at the offensive end, though it's still very early. Turnovers will still be a problem for the Hoosiers, but it’s probably safe to say that Indiana will no longer have the conference’s worst offense.

With that assumption, the real question becomes just how much defensive improvement Tom Crean can coax out of his charges. Crean’s last Marquette squad (2007-08) was excellent on the defensive end despite having just one starter taller than 6-6. That team really shut down the perimeter, forcing opponents to shoot only 30 percent from three and getting bunches of steals. It was a squad led by juniors and sophomores, so there may be some hope that Crean’s defensive coaching could start taking hold in year three. Unless 7-1 junior college transfer Guy-Marc Michel is cleared by the NCAA and provides a lot more than expected, Indiana is going to need to follow a similar path to get defensive stops, as there aren’t any great shot blockers in the rotation.

The Hoosiers weren’t good at anything defensively last season, but their relative strengths were three-point defense and forcing turnovers (just like that Marquette squad). If they can crank those areas up a couple notches while also improving a bit on the glass, this could be a respectable defense. If not, Indiana may find themselves struggling mightily again. All things considered, a six or seven win Big Ten season feels about right, which should be enought to put Indiana into some sort of postseason tournament. The rebuild is ongoing in Bloomington, and it continues to head in the right direction.

- Posted by Mike Portscheller