08-09 Overall Record: 21-15
08-09 Conference Record: 10-8 (5th)
09-09 Conference Efficiency Margin: -0.01 (T-6th)
Percent of Returning Minutes: 89.1
Percent of Returning Freshman Minutes: 27.4 

The team returns 90 percent of last year’s minutes, over a quarter of which were freshmen minutes (freshmen who played very well, mind you).  They played the conference to a standstill last year, and they welcome a recruiting class that includes two top-50 recruits.  All the team really needs to do is figure the offense out, and they’re looking at a special season.

I’m talking, of course, about last year’s Minnesota Golden Gopher squad.  Indeed, the comparison between this year’s Illini team to last year’s Minnesota team might actually shortchange the Gophers.  The Illini return 89 percent of the minutes, while Minnesota returned 93 percent.  Of the minutes played last year, 27 of the Illini’s were played by returning freshmen.  For Minnesota, that figure was 28.  Illinois had a -0.01 efficiency margin, the Gophers clocked in at +0.01.  The top-50 incoming recruits (Jereme Richmond and Meyers Leonard) are ranked similarly to Minnesota’s last season (Royce White and Rodney Williams).  Oh, and Minnesota was also looking Trevor Mbakwe coming in and making a big impact.  

Like a bear to honey, we saw all these positives, and we predicted that Minnesota would finish third in the conference.  That obviously did not happen.  So like any good analysts, we should learn from our mistake, and go conservative with this year’s Illini team.  

Well, that’s not happening.  For one, there are plenty of things that went wrong with Minnesota’s season that likely will not happen to Illinois.  Second, Minnesota was actually quite a bit unlucky last season, losing more than their fair share of close games.  

This is not to say that there ought to be the same rosy outlook for Illinois that there was for the Gophers last season.  The Big Ten appears to be a better conference today, for starters.  But the bigger issue is Illinois’ offense has been fundamentally flawed for the past two seasons, relying on mid-range jumpers for too much of the scoring.  Commentators often complain about the “lost art” of the mid-range jump shot, but this sells the players short.  The mid-range jumper used to be a pretty good shot, in that a team that operated in the mid-range could operate with fewer turnovers than teams that lived close to the hoop.  But then the three point shot came along, and much of the value of the mid-range jumper was lost.  After all, why not step back a couple of feet for a 50% point increase?

The main culprits of the mid-range game also happen to be three players that have been entrenched in the starting rotation: Demetri McCamey, Mike Tisdale, and Mike Davis.  Ideally, McCamey will shoot more threes, Davis will live closer to the hoop, and Tisdale will, well, Tisdale can be effective shooting from either close-in or from range.  The question about Illinois’ offense, though, is whether these players were seeking out 10-foot shots or whether that’s what they’ve been limited to.  If it’s the latter, then we can expect some improvement.  With incoming talent such as Jereme Richmond and Meyers Leonard, and sophomore leaps from last year’s talented class (including Big Ten Freshman of the Year D.J. Richardson), there should be better holes in the defense.  

Even in a best-case scenario, however, it’s going to be a dogfight for Illinois to win the Big Ten.  But the Illini should certainly be one of the teams to beat this year.

And that's everyone.  Tomorrow Mike and I will start unveiling our predictions for the season.