Josh: So Big Ten basketball is losing its most entertaining figure its had in decades.  Can the conference recover?  Will there ever be an adequate replacement to the color commentary provided by Steve Lavin?  Will Tim Doyle live up to his promise and take the reins?  

That's the looming issue over the conference in my opinion, but I suppose we should talk some basketball.  The common consensus is that there are three tiers within the Big Ten: the contenders, the likely bubble teams, and the cellar dwellers.  Frankly, it seems like these three categories are present every season, but it feels especially true this season.  The prevailing disagreement, however, is precisely which of the teams fall into which of the categories.  And I think you and I view things very differently from most soothsayers.  Further, I think that disagreement centers around three teams: Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois.  Sort those out, and I think the rest falls into place.  So I'll let you take first crack at it--what's to make of the Boilers this season?

Mike: Lavin will be missed. Who else is going to liberally use the word "fanny" when watching a college basketball game?

As for Purdue (where Lavin began his career, incidentally), I'm a little surprised at some of the public reaction to the Robbie Hummel injury. Some Boiler fans seem absolutely outraged that Purdue could be dropped as far as #23 in Andy Katz's preseason poll. Because, you know, Robbie Hummel wasn't easily their best shooter and rebounder or anything like that. Backing those fans up, surprisingly, are the actual polls--the AP has Purdue at #14 while the coaches have them at #9. For me, those expectations would be about right for the team with Robbie Hummel. I think the Purdue hype machine got a bit out of control over the offseason. To wit: JaJuan Johnson, who has been a good but not great Big Ten player, is suddenly a first team All-American? He wasn't even first team All-Big Ten last season, for good reason. I see Purdue without Hummel as being a solid team, probably at the back end of the top 25, with a very good defense and an inconsistent offense. In a Big Ten that is much improved top to bottom, the Boilermakers might end up closer to .500 in conference play than their fans care to admit.

What about Illinois? Are the preseason expectations too lofty for an NIT squad?

Josh: Yes and no.  I don't mean to be evasive with that answer, it's just that I've seen these Illini projected from 6th place in the Big Ten all the way to a Final Four contender.  I would say "somewhere in the middle," but that actually is evasive.  So here's what I see with Illinois: Minnesota last season.  Coming off a ho-hum NIT season, the Gophers returned 90 percent of the minutes, many of which were played by a talented freshman class; they had a core group of seniors; and a very good incoming recruiting class highlighted by instant-impact players.  Last season, we saw all of those elements and picked the Gophers as a likely 3rd place team that would challenge for the conference crown.  Whoops.   With that said, Minnesota ran into a lot of bad breaks last year, so I'm going to do what every good analyst does when he's wrong--claim it was bad luck!  But the numbers still suggest this is a very good Illini team that has the talent to be a top 10 squad.  And there aren't any off-court issues on the horizon that threaten to disrupt the Illini like they disrupted last year's Minnesota team.  So I'm picking Illinois to challenge for the title.

OK, now onto Wisconsin.  The consensus is yet again that the Badgers are also-rans in the Big Ten.  This has been the prevailing projection for Bo Ryan's team for as long as I can remember.  And every spring, the analysts all exclaim "never again!" and vow to pay proper respect to Wisconsin the following fall.  And then they don't.  Is this the year the fall from grace actually happens?

Mike: In a word: no. I think Wisconsin will be right there with the other Big Ten contenders, although I don't expect them to run off with the efficiency margin crown again (on a side note, maybe we should be handing out an actual EM Crown each season. I'm sure Bo Ryan would have been thrilled last season to receive it). Sure, the Badgers lose two valuable guards in Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon, guys that seemed like they were in Madison for about six years, but there's otherwise a lot of proven talent at Ryan's disposal. Jon Leuer might be the conference's best player, Jordan Taylor turns it over less than just about any point guard in the country, and Keaton Nankivil is a legitimate offensive weapon. Of course, we can also expect solid play from the sophomores and juniors that have been waiting their turn, as per usual for a Bo Ryan team. Overall, I expect the Badgers to be just as good as they were last season, which this year might mean a repeat fourth place finish in the standings and a matching showing in the EM Crown race.

So we've talked about three teams that might be able to challenge for the title, but let's spend a little time closer to the bottom. Is this the season Indiana makes the big leap back to relevance?

Josh: Relevance is sort of a tricky thing.  I don't think the Hoosiers will show up on Lunardi's board at any point this season, however, opposing fanbases no longer will be able to mentally write "W" next to the "@Indiana" line on the schedule with little concern.  Christian Watford, Verdell Jones, and of course Maurice Creek--that's a pretty nice core right there.  But you don't go from a -0.19 efficiency margin to an NCAA Tournament team without a real miracle.  They're better, but still another year away from really being "back."  I expect turnovers to be a real bugaboo for Tom Crean's squad this season.

OK, what about Michigan State?  The entire country has them in the top 5, and that seems awfully high for a team that had the offseason that they did.  Am I way off here?

Mike: After Michigan State lost in the Final Four, I wrote that they should be better this season than last. Of course, that was before Chris Allen transferred, not to mention the other offseason issues. I still feel the Spartans will be better than last season, but I think less of last year's Spartans than most. If you take the season as a whole, Michigan State was a merely good team that played well and caught some breaks in the NCAA Tournament. They finished 23rd nationally in Pomeroy rating, and they were fourth in the Big Ten in efficiency margin. Using that as the baseline, instead of the vaunted "Final Four" label, should give us a better idea of what to expect. Losing Allen does really hurt--now, Tom Izzo has to hope that highly rated frosh Keith Appling is able replace Allen's solid production, which is no sure thing. Likewise, the Spartans would have to be pleased if Adreian Payne can simply match what Raymar Morgan gave them. I do expect improvement from Michigan State's other players, but I wouldn't put them in the top five nationally. I wouldn't even be shocked if they finished fourth in the Big Ten this season. The status quo won't be good enough for another title as the conference improves around the Spartans.

How about the other Big Ten team in the polls' top five? Should the Buckeyes be considered the favorite?

Josh: They have to be, right? (And I say this with about 20 minutes before they tip off against Florida.  So, uh, make me look good Buckeyes)  At least, that's what the mathematical model in this really great book says.  I know people are going to say "who's the point guard?" but really, that question was equally legitimate the past two seasons as well, and all Thad Matta did was put the best point guard in the country in his starting rotation.  Now, I don't think there is an Evan Turner v2.0 on the Ohio State roster right now, but there are a sufficient number of ballhandlers such that a lack of a true point guard (supposing Aaron Craft isn't ready for primetime) isn't going to be a big issue.  And outside of that, there aren't a lot of possible weaknesses on this team.  Turner was an underrated defender, so they'll have to replace that, but the offense in my estimation should get much better with the freshmen additions.  This isn't just a good Big Ten team, this might be Matta's best team, well, ever.

OK, before moving on to some player projections, tell me about the Wildcats.  Will the NCAA finally ask them to the prom?

Mike: Northwestern will be an offensive juggernaut this season, so it will all depend on improving that defense. The raw materials are there--the Wildcats are tall and have some good athletes. I expect their defense to be better than last season, but they'll still have their troubles at that end. The other problem is their nonconference schedule--even if they go undefeated, they might not have a top 50 win. Northwestern probably needs at least 20 wins headed into the Big Ten Tournament to have a respectable RPI, meaning they'll need to win at least 9 games in a tough Big Ten. It's not impossible, but I'd put my money on Northwestern missing the tourney if forced to make a bet. I really hope I'm wrong--it would be fun to see the Wildcats make it.

Onto the individuals--who are your breakout candidates?

Josh: I’d tell you now, but what’s the fun in that?  Instead, I’ll do this “tease” thing I keep hearing about.  Readers--tune in tomorrow, where Mike and I will tell you who is breaking out this season, who will end up on the All Big Ten Team, how high to set expectations for the conference, and we’ll give our record predictions for the season.  See you then!