(Picking up on yesterday’s post, in which Mike asked who might be having a breakout season)

Josh: I detailed why I think Christian Watford is due for big things elsewhere, and I still think that he's the most likely candidate.  Others in the group would include Brandon Paul, a high-shot volume guard who missed everything but did a lot of good elsewhere.  Paul showed above-average ballhandling ability for a freshman, good defense, and good rebounding.  All of those things make me think he's not a terrible player, but had a broke jumpshot last season.  And the high-volume suggests that he's used to making more shots.  Another guy I like is Eric May at Iowa, who frankly might have been freshman of the year if he were playing in any other system.  May made 54 percent of his twos, but his numbers were deflated by the fact that he shot 29 percent on his more-frequent threes.  With Lickliter gone, I think he stays inside more and becomes a real force.  The next guy on my list is David Jackson, an extremely efficient player who just needs to shoot more.  Penn State isn't exactly a deep team this year, so I don't think he'll be able to be so discerning this season.  Also on this list would have been Devoe Joseph, but who knows how much he ends up playing this season. Finally, I love Alex Marcotullio's game.  Great shooter, underrated defender, and really fits into the Princeton offense (where everyone on the floor has to be a quasi-point guard).  He was actually on a tear last season until conference play hit.  I think he's ready to play a full season now. I also expect some significant improvement from Keaton Nankivil, but he's already good enough that it's hard to call it a breakout.  

Did I miss anyone?  What are your thoughts on Player of the Year?

Mike: I like all of your picks. There's only two guys I could add, and they're a bit more on the fringe of the discussion. Derek Elston rebounds, blocks shots, and gets steals, and he's shown some scoring ability too. So far, Tom Crean is actually playing him less than last season, but Watford needs somebody to join him on the defensive glass--Tom Pritchard still isn't getting it done. The other breakout candidate is Purdue guard John Hart--he shot 35 percent on threes in Big Ten play last season, and he's one of the few Boilermakers that isn't shot-averse. Somebody has to step into the scoring void for Purdue, and I think it's either Hart or D.J. Byrd. I'll roll with Hart.

If there's one thing I've learned in our two-plus years of blogging, it's that I'm not very good at predicting the Player of the Year, while you are. With that said, my favorites are (in no particular order) Demetri McCamey, William Buford, Draymond Green, John Shurna, and Jon Leuer. I suppose that would be my preseason All Big Ten team. I think Wisconsin surprises people and challenges for the Big Ten title, with Jon Leuer leading the way, so he'll be my pick. What about you?

Josh: I love William Buford as much as the next guy, but I want to see better shot selection out of him before I put him on the first team.  No more 18 footers!  I think Buford's freshman teammate, Jared Sullinger, is a better candidate (especially after his breakout performance against the Gators).  The rest of the team looks fine to me, and I agree that Leuer should be the frontrunner here.  

Parting thoughts time--does the Big Ten continue its dominance of the ACC this year, and is there a Final Four team in this conference?

Mike: Ah, the Challenge. As a Geek, my first inclination is almost always to run to the numbers--in this case, I threw Pomeroy's game prediction percentages into a spreadsheet. If you add up the chances for the Big Ten in each of the 11 games, you end up with an expectation that the conference wins 5.56 games. Obviously, there's no way to "win" 56 hundredths of a game, so this Challenge is truly a toss-up. The tipping point games look like Penn State/Maryland, Iowa/Wake Forest, and Purdue/Virginia Tech. If the Big Ten wins two of those three, they should take the whole thing.

As for potential Final Four teams, Michigan State and Butler showed last year that you don't have to be a top ten team (by efficiency margin) to reach the Final Four. With that said, I actually think the Big Ten has four teams with a reasonable shot (in this order): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. I left out Purdue--I think they're more of a stretch--but they have a nonzero chance as well. This season could be a return to the glory days of 2005, 2000, and 1999, with multiple Big Ten teams in the Final Four. What are your thoughts? Am I being too generous with my "potential Final Four" labels? And will the Challenge not be as close as I think?

Josh: I think you're right on the Challenge, though I think the real rubber match is Purdue and Virginia Tech.  The rest of the matchups look pretty clean cut to me, and I get a 5-5 split.  So it'll come down to the Hokies and Boilermakers.  As for Final Four teams, I don't think you're being too optimistic--after all, MSU went to the Final Four last year, and they were the 4th best team in Big Ten play.  By some power of the transitive property, there were three other potential Final Four teams in the Big Ten (well, until Robbie got hurt).  

But I don't think the Big Ten will dominate the basketball landscape like it did back in the heydays of the late 80s.  Frankly, I don't think the conference will ever get back to that point.  Similarly, I don't think the ACC will ever get back to its stature that it held for most of the 90s.  The game is too big, too diffused for any one conference to dominate the landscape like that.  

I think that about does it.  The Illini tip off against Texas tonight, in the second big test for the conference.  Any predictions?  Also, I'm looking for a good book to read, ideally something in the range of 358 pages.  Any recommendations?

Mike: I'm always nervous about predicting individual games, but I'll take Illinois by 5. Texas is talented, but they could have some issues with Illinois' length. Three of the Longhorns' top seven guys are 6-1 or shorter, and only one is taller than 6-8 (senior center Matt Hill, who is a nonfactor offensively). If the Illini can stop dribble penetration and keep Texas on the perimeter, they should be in good shape (Texas is shooting 24 percent from three so far). This almost looks like a good game to go zone, although I'd be surprised to see Bruce Weber do much of that.

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Record Predictions: