The old posts were lost in the shuffle when the BTN.com got a makeover, so you'll just have to take our word for it--we were awesome at predicting breakout players last year.  Yep, we told you ahead of time about Draymond Green, Jon Leuer, Jordan Taylor, John Shurna, and Devoe Joseph. 

OK, that's not actually true.  From that above list, we had Shurna and Leuer.  But hey, that's not bad, right?  Well, here are this season's likely candidates: 

Christian Watford, So., Indiana

This guy is at the top of our list, and it's easy to see why.  He was a strong rebounder as a freshman last season, he drew fouls at a high rate, showed great touch at the free throw line, and even some accuracy from downtown (32 percent).  Physically, he stands 6-9 with long arms.  He's even got a strong recruiting pedigree as a former top 50 player.  Oh, and to top it off, he showed the kind of aggression (he took over 25 percent of IU's shots when on the floor) that is indicative of a player with more to offer.  So what was the problem last year?  Two pointers.  Watford shot 39 percent inside the arc, and a good chunk of that problem came on stuff from within 5 feet.  Added bulk and trading layups for dunks should solve that problem.  

Brandon Paul, So., Illinois

Like Watford, Paul's problem was one of shooting, though it wasn't contained to one area.  The guy couldn't throw it in the ocean last season.  This was made worse by the fact that he's one of the most shot-happy players in the conference.  Not only that, but he didn't shoot all that well from the line (64 percent), which suggests no major improvement might be forthcoming.  So why is he here?  What makes him different from Alex Legion (who we included on last year's team, to our shame)?  Well, Paul actually does other stuff on the court besides miss shots (Legion didn't).  He rebounds well for a guard, dishes assists, grabs steals, and he's not a liability with the ball.  All of this suggests to me that Paul actually knows how to play basketball (Legion didn't).  And yes, he was once a top 50 recruit as well.  

Eric May, So., Iowa

Eric May shouldn't even be here.  Frankly, the guy should have been fighting with Drew Crawford and D.J. Richardson over Freshman of the Year honors last season.  He shot 54 percent on two pointers, rebounding well for a wing player, dished out a few assists, and was the team's best defender.  But he didn't get a lot of buzz on his campaign, and that's because he played in a system that encouraged three pointers.  Thus, May attempted entirely too many three pointers last season (143 in total), converting on just 29 percent of them.  This was enough to depress his numbers into afterthought territory.  With a new sheriff in town at Iowa, I expect May to play more to his strengths this year. 

Derek Elston, So., Indiana

I love offensive rebounding as a projection tool.  The reason why is that a strong offensive rebounder is virtually guaranteed to have a steady stream of easy looks coming their way.  There are two guys on Indiana who aren't allergic to offensive rebounds: Derek Elston and Bobby Capobianco.  Derek Elston was aggressive offensively, played good defense, and showed a shooting touch that extended beyond the three point line.  Capobianco was not an offensive presence, missed when he did shoot, and judging by his foul numbers, he tried to bite players on the other team.  I'm going with Elston. 

John Hart, So., Purdue or D.J. Byrd, So., Purdue

Someone is going to have to take Robbie Hummel's shots, and both Mike and myself like these two guys more than Kelsey Barlow.  Neither player did a lot last season, but they both showed some flashes.  I think Byrd's statistical profile is a little bit better than Hart's (more assists and free throws), and so far he's ahead of the field. 

David Jackson, Sr., Penn State

All this guy has to do is shoot more.  He made 56 percent of his twos, 38 percent of his threes, and he was skilled at getting to the line and knocking them down.  More shots, and he's on an All Big Ten Team. 

Alex Marcotullio, So., Northwestern

Marcotullio was a strong shooter for a freshman and hinted at an ability to handle point guard duties as well.  He was also pretty good defensively, posting a high steal rate.  Then he sat on the bench for virtually all of the conference season (after dropping a combined 29 points in NU's first conference games against Illinois and Michigan State).  Puzzling, especially in light of the defense, which wasn't exactly a prevalent skill in Evanston. 

OK, now to get some turkey.  Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.