Michigan State suffered their third loss of the season, this time in convincing fashion, falling to Syracuse 72-58. As usual, turnovers were a problem, but maybe not the biggest problem on this night. Syracuse's zone forces a fair amount of turnovers, and the Spartans' turnover rate was actually better than their season average (which is to say, still bad). The bigger issue in this game may have been the morphing of Michigan State's offense into that of a perimeter-oriented team (POT), but without the turnover reduction benefit. The Spartans took 44 percent of their shots from outside the arc, and that perimeter-heavy shot distribution showed in other areas--Michigan State rebounded just 24 percent of their misses (a season low) and got to the free throw line just 16 times. Tom Izzo's team got all of the negatives of a POT without the positives.

This profile has been emerging for Michigan State as the season has worn on, and it's not easy to explain why all the outside shots aren't helping the team's turnover problem. Here's the data for MSU's games against D1 teams this season:

I included Pomeroy rank and effective height to see if these variables were correlated with MSU's three point tendencies, and the short answer is that they are not (0.05 and -0.14 coefficients, respectively).

We see that Michigan State started the season taking a similar shot distribution to last season, when 26 percent of their shots were threes. Then, starting with the win over Washington, the Spartans suddenly began taking almost half of their shots from deep. Is there any correlation between more Spartans threes and fewer Spartan turnovers? Running the numbers, the correlation coefficient is 0.60, which implies some correlation in the opposite direction of what we would expect. This season, more Michigan State threes has tended to go along with more Michigan State turnovers. It's also interesting to look for a correlation between shot distribution and offensive rebounding: basically, there isn't one (0.08 coefficient). Perhaps the recent perimeter-oriented approach isn't to blame for the tepid offensive rebounding.

The one place where we see an expected correlation with shot distribution is free throw rate, with a coefficient of -0.49. It isn't a particularly strong correlation, but it shows that Michigan State has tended to get fewer free throws when they are taking more threes.

So, to answer the titular question, what is wrong with Michigan State? Well, the answer may be: nothing. The Spartans have lost three games to good-to-very-good teams, and none of the losses have been at home. Sure, the turnover issue needs to be addressed in some capacity, but Michigan State still looks like a good team.

As far as the turnover problem goes, do you simply bench Korie Lucious at this point? This is a guy in his third season that has shown no signs of reducing that almost 30 percent turnover rate. The problem is that there aren't a lot of alternatives for Tom Izzo, save for riding Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Draymond Green like he was Thad Matta.

In other action, a shorthanded Penn State survived against Mount St. Mary's, 57-53. This was a defensive win for the Nittany Lions, as they held Mount St. Mary's to 0.87 points per possession. Talor Battle and Jeff Brooks weren't terribly efficient, but they combined for 25 points (28 shots), 21 rebounds, and 6 assists. The supporting cast did their job with 32 points on 22 shots, led by Taran Buie (10 points on 7 shots).

Purdue went on the road to dispatch Valparaiso, 76-58. This game was tight until an 11-2 Purdue run early in the second half gave the Boilers some breathing room. Once again, it was the Purdue defense that impressed, holding Valpo to their second lowest output of the season (0.83 PPP). Only Kansas has locked down the Crusaders better. On the offensive end, JaJuan Johnson was clearly bothered by constant double teams, as he finished with 13 points (10 shots), 8 rebounds, and 6 turnovers against the undersized Crusaders. Happily, his teammates picked up the slack--Lewis Jackson and Kelsey Barlow combined for 24 points on 12 shots, and E'Twaun Moore was his usual high-scoring self (23 points on 15 shots). With the Boilermaker defense humming along as usual, it was plenty to assure the victory. Suprisingly, the most impressive defensive performance of the night didn't belong to Purdue...

Iowa locked down a decent Northern Iowa squad to the tune of 0.74 point per possession in a 51-39 win. For reference, even Syracuse (the team that just shut down Michigan State) couldn't hold Northern Iowa to such depths. It looks like Iowa has a legimiately solid defense, and with a shaky offense, that defense has been the key to each of Iowa's five wins. Fran McCaffery's last two teams at Siena were pretty good defensively despite a lack of height, so maybe this shouldn't come as a surprise. Melsahn Basabe and Jarryd Cole controlled the paint, combining for 24 points (15 shots) and 22 rebounds. Also important is that the pair turned it over just once, which is exemplary for a couple of active big men.

Tonight brings three games that should result in Big Ten victories: Minnesota visits St. Joseph's (6pm CT, sjuhawks.com), Illinois hosts Oakland (7pm CT, BigTenNetwork.com), and Wisconsin faces Wisconsin Milwaukee (7:30pm CT, BTN).

- Posted by Mike Portscheller