It would be nice if Illinois’ 57-54 loss to UIC was an early-season upset to a mid-major that’s set to make some noise in March. Sure, it would look bad now, but the Flames would show everyone in a few months that they’re for real.
But that won’t happen. UIC is not a good team. This is a team with 7 losses, and that came in on a 4-game losing streak to the powerhouse programs of Akron, Valparaiso, Illinois State, and Northern Illinois. But they snapped that streak against the Illini, thanks to a miserable effort by Illinois’ front line. Combined, the 5 post players for Bruce Weber’s team scored 13 points on 21 shots. Indeed, scoring was a real problem for Illinois, as they put up a meager 0.83 points per possession, by far the worst output of the season. I’m sure this is not the effort Weber was hoping to see right before the team’s matchup with Missouri, but frankly, this offense is still broken, despite the pretty shooting numbers it had been exhibiting prior to the UIC debacle. They’re still shooting a lot of jumpers, and far too many of them count for only two points. When the jumpers don’t go down, there’s no way for this team to score. And when things are going right for the other team (take UIC’s Darrin Williams, a 37 percent free throw shooter coming into this one, knocking down three clutch free throws near the end of regulation), even the meekest of challengers can take down Illinois.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s an awful lot of talent in Champaign. But until they figure out a better offense, the Illini won’t play to their potential.
And hey--how about Paul Carter? We pegged him as a breakout player prior to last season, but that didn’t come to fruition. Carter transferred for personal reasons, and was obviously UIC’s playmaker out there (12 points, 6 boards, and 3 assists against Illinois). Good for him.
Michigan scored an impressive win over Oakland on Saturday, 69-51 in a game they dominated from the opening tip. Oakland was coming off a win at Tennessee and a close loss against Michigan State, and I expect to see this team again in the Big Dance. But against Michigan, they had nothing going offensively. The Wolverines held the Golden Grizzlies to 0.74 points per possession, the lowest output of the season for Greg Kampe’s team (I totally see it too). I sincerely have no words for John Beilein’s defense this season. Beilein is historically an offensive-minded coach. Not just in that he emphasizes offense, but also that he just seems to ignore defense. He’s the Mike Martz of college basketball. So what’s going on in Ann Arbor is just bananas. Michigan is now the 17th-best defense in the country according to Pomeroy numbers, easily a personal best for Beilein. Darius Morris led the way offensively with 18 points.
Ohio State beat the pulp out of South Carolina 79-57 in a 69 possession game. Jared Sullinger’s line (30 points, 19 rebounds) will cause sleepless nights for Big Ten post players. It’s not often you see a player with his size possess such a high basketball I.Q., exhibited by his ability to get to the free throw line (the guy draws eight fouls per game). I feel kind of bad for the rest of the Buckeyes (DeShaun Thomas is looking like a pretty good player, and Jon Diebler’s missed about 5 shots all season) because Sullinger just keeps hogging headlines. We’re approaching Sully and The Pips territory.
The Illini’s embarrassment aside, the Big Ten took care of the cupcakes in relatively short order over the weekend. To recap:
Indiana State hung with Purdue for about 30 minutes before Matt Painter’s team had enough. JaJuan Johnson led the way in another Purdue Win. ISU was held to 0.76 points per possession in the 65-52 loss, the lowest output of the season. Johnson and E’Twaun Moore combined for 72 percent of Purdue’s offense, as the Boilers are still searching for that third scorer (John Hart’s absence from the lineup should be noted, however). Also, Jake Kelly’s reunion didn’t go as smoothly as Paul Carter’s (6 points, 5 turnovers for the ISU guard).
I know we’ve been making a lot about the fact that Iowa is playing faster this season, but the Hawkeyes still aren’t fast (176th in adjusted tempo), but rather just less slow. This was demonstrated by Iowa’s 59-52 win over Drake (65 possessions). It was another big defensive effort, as Drake scored a paltry 0.80 points per possession. The Hawkeyes grabbed about 80 percent of the available defensive boards and took advantage of Drake’s penchant for turnovers (the Bulldogs gave it away on a quarter of their possessions). Matt Gatens led the way with 19 points on 13 shots.
Michigan State didn’t seem to miss Tom Izzo much, steamrolling Prairie View A&M 90-51 in a 72 possession game. While a 35 percent offensive rebounding percentage isn’t bad, it’s also not Spartanesque. Indeed, MSU’s rebounding is definitely down this year. Combined with the high turnovers, there’s a bit of a reason to worry here. Sure, the Spartans have a solid offensive efficiency, but it’s largely been driven by shooting over 40 percent from three point range. I love Draymond Green, but I really don’t think he’s going to shoot his threes as well as his twos and his free throws (he’s about 50 percent on all three). On Saturday, it was Durrell Summers bombing away, hitting 5 three pointers en route to scoring 25 points.
Indiana didn’t miss much in beating SIU-Edwardsville 88-54, hitting 64 percent on two pointers and 56 percent on threes. The Hoosiers also continued their habit of turning it over too much, unfortunately. The defensive rebounding was something to behold--SIUE grabbed over 80 percent of the available defensive boards, which was actually topped by IU (90 percent). Christian Watford led the way with 18 points on just 8 shots. The hot shooting continued in IU’s 102-60 win over South Carolina State, where the Hoosiers shot 61 percent on twos and 46 percent on threes. The last time the Hoosiers scored 1.4 points per possession, D.J. White was suiting up for them.
Some quality matchups in the Big Ten this week, especially on Wednesday when Michigan State meets Texas and Illinois tries to rebound over Missouri. Both MSU and Illinois will be looking to salvage what’s been a disappointing non-conference season, and I expect both squads to be challenged.