Michigan really got their offense going last night in their matchup with Ohio State. The Wolverines bombed away from deep, taking over half of their shots from three and making them at a 46 percent clip. They even had success inside the arc, shooting 59 percent on twos. If you knew only these numbers, you'd probably think Michigan pulled the upset. Instead, the Buckeyes mostly stayed in control and prevailed with a 68-64 win.

So what was the problem? The biggest issue was the Michigan defense, which allowed Ohio State to post 1.21 points per possession. It was a welcome return to those lofty scoring levels for the Buckeyes, after they struggled a bit (relatively speaking) against Iowa and Minnesota. Ohio State shot almost as well as Michigan, and they paired that with frequent trips to the charity stripe, where they outscored the Wolverines 17 to 5.

The one area where Michigan defended admirably was on Jared Sullinger, who didn't handle the constant double- and triple-teaming very well. Sullinger finished with 12 points on six shots, but he turned it over six times and fouled out. Sullinger's teammates picked up the slack, especially William Buford (19 points on 13 shots) and David Lighty (12 points on 7 shots). The Buckeyes just have so many ways to beat you.

The Michigan offense was held back by a bit of a turnover problem, making this performace look a lot like the ones posted recently by Illinois: great shooting, too many turnovers, and almost no offensive rebounds or free throws. It's a formula that still works to some extent--only Florida has scored better on the Buckeyes--but a lower turnover rate could have delivered a big victory.

Darius Morris saw a solid performance (18 points, 5 rebounds, 8 assists) sullied by 5 turnovers, while Zack Novak and Evan Smotrycz combined for 30 points on 16 shots, mostly from three.

In the nightcap, Northwestern roared out of the gates in a 90-71 blowout of Iowa. This game looked like a tossup coming in, as both Vegas and Pomeroy's computer had the Hawkeyes as an ever-so-slight favorite. Northwestern apparently didn't get the memo, as they scorched the nets to 1.31 points per possession--their second straight game at such great heights. Outside shooting was obviously a great strength (a whopping 14 for 28 from three), but the Wildcats also got all over the offensive glass, grabbing 42 percent of their infrequent misses. 

As is usually the case when Northwestern does well, the attack was balanced with six players scoring at least eight points each. Drew Crawford led the way with 19 points on 14 shots, while Michael Thompson and John Shurna combined for 33 points (25 shots), 10 assists, and 6 steals. Crawford had a bit of a scare in the second half, landing awkwardly on his right shoulder, but he later returned to the game and showed no ill effects. Strangely, Bill Carmody elected to keep his starters in most of the way--only 13 minutes were distributed beyond the top seven players.

Northwestern's defense was also good in the early going, but, as can happen in blowouts, Iowa put up a big second half to finish with 1.03 points per possession. The Wildcats can take some comfort in the fact that Ohio State allowed a similar number to Iowa, and that was in a close game.

This outcome certainly changes the projections for each of these teams. Northwestern played well enough that their Pomeroy rating climbed to 50th nationally, which would make them a clear sixth place team in the Big Ten. That's important, because it doesn't appear likely that more than six teams from the conference will make the NCAA Tournament, and that number will more likely be five. If Northwestern can win home and away against the five other lower half teams (no easy task, but possible), that would give them 10 conference wins. At that point, springing one upset would put them at 11 Big Ten wins, including a top 50 one. I think that gets them in. A road blowout certainly makes this scenario look more plausible.

For Iowa, this performance makes it clearer that they'll be fighting to avoid the conference cellar. This was one of their few winnable games (on paper, at least), and it seems like their two matchups with Indiana may end up deciding 11th place. There's not much separation in the middle of the conference, but there is at the bottom--Iowa and Indiana are a clear notch below. That early season defense from the Hawkeyes may have been fool's gold--through four Big Ten games, Iowa is allowing 1.20 points per possession. Granted, those games were against four of the conference's five best offenses, but that's still not good.

Tonight, there's just one Big Ten game, but it's a good one. Minnesota hosts Purdue in what should be an interesting matchup (6pm CT, ESPN). The Gophers make a living on the offensive glass and the foul line, which are two areas of relative weakness for the Purdue defense. Trevor Mbakwe, the main driver of those two strengths, will not start but is expected to play. Considering Mbakwe's foul difficulties, coming off the bench might not make much difference in his minutes or productivity. If Minnesota's guards can handle Purdue's pressure and avoid a high turnover rate, this should be a tight one.

- Posted by Mike Portscheller