A frustrating season for Michigan State got even more perplexing with a 61-57 home loss to Michigan. For the third straight game, the Spartans allowed their opponent to post an effective field goal percentage north of 60.0--the Wolverines put up a 60.9 mark. Fortunately for the Spartans, Michigan didn't do much else well offensively, and the Wolverines ended up scoring just 1.03 points per possession--a paltry sum in today's Big Ten.

Unfortunately for the Spartans, they couldn't throw it in the ocean from three (5 of 19, 26 percent) and were neutralized on the glass. Michigan State ended up scoring just 0.96 points per possession, matching their worst output of the conference season. It was also Michigan's first time holding a Big Ten opponent below a point per possession--their previous best was the 1.15 they allowed to Penn State. So... yeah. This was a surprising result.

Zack Novak scored 19 points on 9 shots, and Darius Morris chipped in 17 points on 10 shots. The rest of the team scored just 25 points on 27 shots. Michigan State was led by Kalin Lucas with 27 points on 18 shots.

At this point, it has to be an open question as to whether Michigan State will even make the NCAA Tournament. Yes, they've played a very tough schedule, but they only have three quality wins to show for all those opportunities (Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin). Pomeroy's projections now have them going 9-9 in conference play, which would give them a 17-13 record headed into the Big Ten Tournament. I think that probably still would get them a spot in the expanded field, but there is some reason for Spartan fans to worry here. I wouldn't bet against MSU making the field, but it's no longer a given.

In the night's other contest, one of the conference's best offenses went up against one of its worst defenses. The result, of course, is that the defense won out in Indiana's 52-49 victory over visiting Illinois. The Illini shot just 25 percent on threes and 36 percent on twos, resulting in an ugly 0.82 efficiency. This was on par with Illinois' putrid performance against UIC, and the end result was the same--a three-point loss that will haunt their resume for the rest of the season.

The Hoosiers, for their part, were pretty awful as well, scoring 0.87 points per possession and turning it over on 22 percent of their trips. The one thing that had self-destructed Indiana's defense all season--putting opponents on the free throw line--was finally not an issue. In fact, Illinois got just eight free throw attempts against 59 shots for a 13.6 free throw rate. That's the lowest rate allowed by Indiana all season; it seems the jump-shooting ways of Illinois were the perfect antidote for Indiana's main problem. This low free throw rate is even more remarkable when you consider that Illinois entered the bonus with 12:33 remaining in a close game. The Illini simply looked lost offensively down the stretch, when almost any aggressive play to the basket would have probably gotten them a trip to the foul line.

Speaking of free throws, it's important to note that Indiana made 11 of 11 from the charity stripe. Illinois has run into some incredible free throw shooting in their three close losses--Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana combined to shoot 49 of 52 (94 percent!) on free throws in those three games, and Illinois lost those games by a combined 10 points. Only one of those games was at home, so we can't really pin this on the Orange Krush. Sometimes the makes just come at the wrong time.

Jordan Hulls scored 18 points on just 9 shots, while Christian Watford scored 16 points on 14 hoists. Mike Davis and Jereme Richmond combined for 23 points and 18 rebounds.

Many of the same arguments I laid out about Michigan State are true of Illinois as well. This is clearly a talented team, but they've already lost four conference games with trips to Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue still on the docket. This season, once promising, could unravel into another NIT bid, or the Illinois could still recover and get a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament. You just have no way of knowing with this bunch.

According to Pomeroy's ratings, the chances of Michigan and Indiana winning these two games was just under five percent. It was something of a bizarro night in Big Ten hoops, and two perplexing teams are left searching for answers.

- Posted by Mike Portscheller