Penn State is proving to be quite the tough out in the Big Ten.  After finishing in last place in the conference a season ago, and losing key players to transfer (or just quitting basketball outright), the Nittany Lions were supposed to tread water this season.  But this group just hasn’t gotten the memo, as another Big Ten title contender found out this weekend when PSU took down Wisconsin 56-52 in a 53 possession game.  Wisconsin had control of the game early, opening up a double digit lead in the first half.  But Ed DeChellis’ team clawed back, and made their shots down the stretch.  A big part of that was the fact that Penn State was the more aggressive team, while Wisconsin settled for a lot of jumpshots.  The end result was that Penn State attempted 17 more free throws.  Even so, it’s not often that the Badgers shoot 30 percent from three point range, and indeed there were a lot of open shots that didn’t go down for Bo Ryan’s team.  As per usual, Wisconsin leaned on Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer, to the tune of 34 points on 29 shots.

At 5-4 in conference play, it’s time to take a hard look at Penn State’s NCAA Tournament hopes.  They’ve got 4 games at home and 5 on the road remaining.  Taking the rosy view, the home stretch (Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Ohio State) looks like 3-1.  The road games, however (Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota) look more like 2-3 at best, and potentially 0-5.  A record of 10-8 puts them on pins and needles on Selection Sunday, while anything better is probably a lock.  But this team has been nothing short of shocking thus far, so count them out at your peril.  

The loss is certainly a blow to Wisconsin’s Big Ten title hopes, as Ohio State doesn’t figure to lose three or more times over the remainder of their schedule.  Still, I wouldn’t count the Badgers out just yet.  The Buckeyes still have 5 road games remaining, none of them against Iowa, Indiana, or Michigan.  They finish out the season at home against Wisconsin, where we might be seeing a face-off for the title, or at least an opportunity for some Matt Sylvester-like destruction of perfection.  

Another reason any talk of Ohio State’s 2011 Big Ten title is premature is because of the fact that, for the most part, the Buckeyes look less than dominant in the lion’s share of their conference wins.  Saturday was another example, as Thad Matta’s team needed late heroics from David Lighty and Jared Sullinger to squeak out a 58-57 win over a shorthanded Northwestern.  Early in the second half, OSU appeared to have this one sealed up, with a 13 point lead.  But behind the efforts of Juice Thompson (16 points, 8 assists, 1 turnover), Northwestern stormed back to take a 55-54 lead.  Jon Diebler responded with a three pointer, but Thompson answered to tie the game at 57.  The two teams exchanged turnovers, after which Sullinger drew a foul and made one of two free throws.  Still, the Wildcats had a final shot at the buzzer, but Drew Crawford’s heave was wide left.  It was a herculean effort by Bill Carmody’s team, which was playing without John Shurna.  Shurna is suffering from several ailments at the moment, so I’m actually not sure which one kept him off the floor.

This was one of the slowest games of 40-minute basketball that you’ll ever see.  By my count, there were 49 possessions, meaning this was actually an offensive outburst of a game played in the 50s.  Ohio State stuck to the Matta Formula of making shots (59.5 effective field goal percentage) while turning it over just 5 times, while the Wildcats took an odd route to 1.16 points per possession.  One would think that the shorthanded and, well, short Northwestern team would stick to the perimeter approach--loft bombs from the outside, and keep turnovers low.  And that’s true, that all happened, as nearly 60 percent of Northwestern’s shots were three pointers.  But strangely, the Wildcats absolutely owned the glass.  They grabbed over 45 percent of their misses while holding the Buckeyes to collecting just 15 percent of the rebounds at the other end of the floor. Give a lot of credit to Northwestern, normally one of the worst rebounding teams in the conference, for stepping up their effort level on the glass, despite the fact that there were normally at least three players standing 20 feet from the rim when the shot went up.  

But as we’ve said before in this space, moral victories don’t mean a lot to the Selection Committee.  And this loss just might close the book on Northwestern’s at-large chances.  Sure, if they run the table from here on out, they’ll be 11-7 in conference play and they probably get in.  But visits to the Kohl Center and Bryce Jordan (which is proving to be quite a home court this season) still loom, and I don’t see a 10-8 Northwestern team sneaking in.  More problematic, however, is that the Wildcats are done playing Purdue and Ohio State.  The only quality win possibilities remaining are Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  And the first three aren’t exactly world-beaters.  In fact, therein is the dilemma--by beating one of those bubble teams, the value of the win is nominally lowered.  It’s great to beat teams that make the field of 68, it’s not so great to beat #1 seeds to the NIT.  

Michigan State fans were this close to hitting the panic button in MSU’s 84-83 overtime win over Indiana.  The Hoosiers seemed to have control of the game late, but as we’ve seen a couple of times before, Draymond Green just refused to lose this game.  He grabbed the offensive rebound after Kalin Lucas missed the shot near the end of regulation.  He drew the foul, made both free throws, and then hit the game winner in overtime.  On the game, he had 19 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 assists.  

The Spartans needed every bit of that offense too, as IU was hitting absolutely everything.  The Hoosiers scored 1.14 points per possession, thanks to hitting 52 percent of their three pointers.  Obviously, you have to give Tom Crean and Indiana a lot of credit, but surely the coach thinks they let one get away.  Indiana shot just 64 percent on their free throws (coming off a win against Illinois, in which they hit all 11 of their free throw attempts), and 88 percent free throw shooter Jeremiah Rivers missed a crucial attempt at the end of regulation.  But those things happen.  I do have a plea for Coach Crean however--Victor Oladipo could use some more minutes.  The swingman hit all 5 of his shots against MSU en route to an efficient 11 points.  The problem is that he played only 19 minutes.  Meanwhile, Tom Pritchard is on the floor for 32 minutes, manages to get all of three shots off, and scores 2 points.  Sure, the Spartans have a big front line, but Oladipo is a very capable rebounder, and clearly created mismatches while he was attacking MSU off the bounce.  Just a thought.

It was close for the Spartans, but wins are wins, and a loss here would have put Michigan State in some real jeopardy come Selection Sunday.  They’re still in the hunt (thanks Huskies!), but they need to get the defensive act together.  Because of the offensive shift in the conference this season, it’s not really fair to point out that MSU has lost every game in the Big Ten in which the opponent hit the point per possession plateau.  After all, as of this writing, not a single team is holding opponents under 1.0 points per possession. The real mark of a good defensive team this season is something like 1.05, so it’s more meaningful to say that only Michigan has managed to beat the Spartans when they’ve held conference opponents under that mark.  The main cause of the poor defense has been field goal defense.  Here’s a stat: despite the fact that Indiana shot over 52 percent on three pointers, the resulting 58.4 effective field goal percentage was the lowest posted by an MSU opponent in four games.

On Saturday, Purdue took care of business against Minnesota.  This was only a three point lead for the Boilermakers at the half, but in the second stanza Purdue exploded for 44 points behind some hot shooting (62.0 effective field goal percentage) en route to a 73-61 victory.  Overall the Boilers scored an impressive 1.2 points per possession against the Gophers, led by JaJuan Johnson and his 24 points on 13 shots.  Speaking of which, this Johnson and E’Twaun Moore tandem is turning into a Batman and Robin relationship.  I know the public at large goes ga-ga over freshmen, but I dare say it’s time to give a hard look at JaJuan Johnson as Player of the Year.  Sullinger is a better offensive rebounder, but Johnson is the better defender.  Throw in the fact that Johnson consumes more possessions, and my vote would go to the Purdue center if I were to cast it today.

The loss ends a 4-game winning streak for Minnesota, but the Gophers are still in relatively good shape for making the Dance at 5-4.  They’ll need to steal a couple of wins on the road in all likelihood, but that’s true for a lot of teams right now.  This week’s visit to Bloomington to face the Hoosiers looms large, obviously.  It’s worth nothing that Minnesota has not struggled very much with turnovers now that they’re playing without a true point guard.  What’s more, Blake Hoffarber’s scoring output has not decreased (34 points over two games).  Credit Tubby for pulling the right strings in light of the turmoil.  

Finally, Michigan went bananas in the second half to pull away from Iowa in a 87-73 win.  It was a high scoring second half for both teams, actually, as they combined for 93 points over the last 20 minutes.  On the game, the Wolverines scored 1.36 points per possession, led by Darius Morris’ triple-double.  The shooting was definitely the driving factor, as UM had a 71.4 eFG on the game.  It wasn’t just three pointers, either.  While they shot 50 percent from long range, the Wolverines were also 68 percent inside the arc.  Of course, the two point defense wasn’t spectacular for John Beilein’s team, as they gave up 52 percent to Iowa.  And when I say “two point defense,” what I mean is “Melsahn Basabe defense.”  Iowa’s big man dropped 25 points on Michigan, using just 11 shots.  

Some of that was to be expected, however.  Michigan was coming off the biggest win of the year, so a letdown can be excused.  As letdown games go, though, it’s nice for them to come against the bottom of the conference.  

For Iowa, there’s really no chance for the Hawkeyes to play beyond the Big Ten Tournament this year, so the important part is growing for next season.  And though we’ve said it before, it bears repeating--Basabe is proving to be quite the talent.  This was his 4th 20-point game in conference play.  That’s more than any other freshman.  True story.

Conference play kicks off again on Tuesday, highlighted by Purdue’s trip to Wisconsin.  If the Badgers lose, the Big Ten might become a two-team race.