By all accounts the Big Ten is a good conference, some would say it's the best conference this season.  Yet, there only seem to be three locks for the Tournament at the moment, as each of the teams in the next tier lost this weekend.

Illinois lost yet another close game, a 71-70 loss to Northwestern.  The Illini are now 0-5 in games that went to overtime or were decided by three points or less. This has been especially apparent in Big Ten play, where Bruce Weber’s team has won by an average of about 14 points, but lost by an average of about 4 points.  We’ve covered the close game/luck debate extensively, so I won’t rehash it here, except to say that Weber needs to load up his team on platitudes, find a rabbit’s foot, or something to start winning some of these close games, because Illinois isn’t going to blow out everyone remaining on their schedule.  The other trend for Illinois is that they can’t win away from Assembly Hall.  The Illini are 11-1 at home, and 4-7 anywhere else.  
 
As for the game on Saturday, it was a typical Northwestern affair, in that neither team could slow down the opposition’s offense.  Both teams were right around 1.1 points per possession.  Michael Thompson carried the load for the Wildcats, scoring 22 points on just 12 shots, while Brandon Paul broke out for Illinois with 21 points on 10 shots.  

This was a nice win for Northwestern, but short of a torrid finish to the season, Bill Carmody’s team is probably locked in to an automatic berth as the only real chance to get to the NCAA Tournament.  Even if the Wildcats finish the regular season on a 7-1 streak, that still only includes two wins against likely top 50 RPI teams, and that’s probably not going to be good enough.  That said, Penn State is hanging around the top 50 mark right now, and with two games remaining against the Lions, I suppose the Cats are also Lion fans as well.  But therein lies the irony I mentioned last week--if Northwestern sweeps PSU, then PSU might very well no longer be a top 50 team.  Bottom line: it might have been a good idea to trade those games against Mount Saint Mary’s and St. Francis (NY) for games against teams from power conferences.

Penn State’s at-large hopes are in real jeopardy after losing to Michigan 65-62 in a 54 possession game.  Both teams were content to pass it around the perimeter and jack up plenty of three pointers (60 percent of Penn State’s shots came from downtown), and not to exert too much energy on defense.  This worked out well for most of the game for the Nittany Lions, but that’s when Tim Hardaway, Jr. came to life.  The freshman scored all 13 of his points in the second half, as he basically carried the Wolverines to victory, though Darius Morris’ efforts (23 points on 17 shots) should not go overlooked.  However, Penn State didn’t play smart down the stretch.  In a scramble for a rebound with under a minute to play, Tim Frazier went down hard, so Talor Battle was leading a 4 on 5 attack as Frazier was still at the other end of the floor.  PSU was down three at the time, and one would think that you’d want to be at full strength for such a critical possession.  Instead of calling timeout, subbing for Frazier, and calling a play...Talor Battle threw up a terrible shot from about 25 feet with about 25 seconds left on the shot clock.  It was a critical mistake by perhaps the conference’s most experienced player, and it may have cost the Nittany Lions the game.  

And this was not the game to lose, as it was the easiest on paper remaining for Ed DeChellis’ team.  Sitting at 5-6 in conference play, it’s not looking likely that the Nittany Lions will even get to .500 in the Big Ten, as only three home games remain (and one of them is against Ohio State).  Obviously, the at-large hopes for the upstart Nittany Lions are slipping away.

Michigan is playing for an NIT bid at this point, and this win helps those aspirations out quite a bit.  They need 16 wins to finish at .500 or better, and this was win #14.  The bigger picture is that the Wolverines’ underclassmen are playing so well.  In addition to Hardaway, Jordan Morgan had a nice game with 6 points and 11 rebounds.  We’re a long way from next season, but Michigan might be well ahead of the rebuilding schedule.  

For the second consecutive game, Michigan State got its clock cleaned by a Big Ten opponent on the road.  This time it was Wisconsin doling out the punishment in a 82-56 drubbing.  The Badgers scored 1.49 points per possession, and it surely would have been higher if the game didn’t turn into a laugher so early.  In the first half, Wisconsin scored 1.76 points per possession.  Aside from rebounding, Bo Ryan’s team was nearly flawless on offense.  They made shots (73.0 effective field goal percentage), held onto the ball (14.5 TO percentage), and attempted (and made) free throws (made 25 of 26 attempts).  The Badgers came into this game as the nation’s 2nd best offense--they just might have moved into 1st place after this effort.  What’s even crazier is that UW scored 82 points, but only three players were in double figures.  Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer combined for 50 points on 27 shots.  

I know the standings don’t really reflect it, but Wisconsin stands as Ohio State’s equal by efficiency margin.  In other words, last season is repeating itself. The two teams meet next weekend at the Kohl Center, which likely represents the biggest test Ohio State will see all season, save perhaps any future trips to Houston.  

As for Michigan State, well, I think it’s time to stop worrying about whether they’ll make the Dance.  It’s not that losing road games to Wisconsin is shameful, but rather that teams good enough to go dancing don’t get the stink beat out of them by both ends of the conference standings like this.  Over their last 9 games, the Spartans are 3-6, and all three wins were overtime wins.  Frankly, they’re probably a little lucky to even be on the bubble at this point.  As of this writing, MSU’s efficiency margin sits at  negative 0.08.  That’s 9th in the Big Ten.

Iowa dealt a serious blow to Indiana’s NIT hopes when the Hawkeyes stole one in Bloomington in a 64-63 thriller on Saturday.  The Hoosiers led this one most of the way, even holding an 8-point lead with under 7 minutes to play.  But Iowa went on an 8-0 run, which set up the back-and-forth final 5 minutes.  Verdell Jones had a good look from about 17 feet, but the shot rimmed out and Victor Oladipo barely missed what would have been an incredible tip.  Some are pointing out that Jones was 1-8 in the game prior to taking that shot, but he’s also probably the best available option the Hoosiers have in terms of creating his own shot.  So I suppose I don’t have a big problem with the playcall.  

The real reason that Indiana lost this game is that they couldn’t contain Iowa on the inside.  And when I say “couldn’t contain Iowa on the inside,” I mean “Melsahn Basabe went nuts.”  The Iowa big man had yet another 20 point game (on 10 shots), and paired those points with 13 rebounds.  Basabe’s incredible year keeps going, and I’m still in shock that this was the recruit that was originally headed to Siena.  MAAC teams, you dodged a bullet, because this kid can play.  I really don’t think that many realize just how good the Big Ten’s freshmen are.  Sure, everyone knows about Jared Sullinger, and all of his attention is justified.  But there’s about 4 or 5 freshmen who, in any normal year, would be the runaway winner of the conference’s Freshman of the Year.  It’s a good thing too, because the Big Ten loses a lot after the season (Leuer, Johnson, Moore, McCamey, Battle, Brooks, Lighty, Diebler, Tisdale, Lucas, Thompson...all seniors.  And Sullinger isn’t likely to come back either).  If these freshmen develop over the offseason, the conference might only lose half a step.

Speaking of impressive freshmen, I think it’s time to officially start the Free Victor Oladipo campaign.  The swingman turned 3 shots into 12 points, and I have no doubts that he would have scored more if he only got more than 20 minutes.  Tom Crean must know something I don’t, because I just don’t see why this guy isn’t playing more.   

Finally, Minnesota proved to be little challenge to Ohio State at the Barn on Sunday in a 82-69 affair.  This was the first time since December that the Buckeyes actually blew out an opponent on the road.  It’s a nice note for Thad Matta’s team to finish on entering a 6 day break before the big game in Madison.  All five starters were in double figures for OSU, led by David Lighty’s 19.  The Hoff paced Minnesota with 16 points on 12 shots.  

Even with the loss, Minnesota’s tournament hopes are still alive and well.  Given how soft the bubble is this season, a 10-8 Big Ten record should get them in with their non-conference resume.  And although the Gophers sit at 5-6, just about every game from here on out is winnable.  No games against the likes of OSU, Wisconsin, and Purdue remain.  The problem is that none of the games remaining look like sure wins, either.  Perhaps the biggest toss-up remaining comes against Illinois at home this Thursday.  Both teams really need the win, as the winner sits in a very comfortable position heading into the final stretch of the season.  

So let’s review: Illinois and Minnesota are playing for a toehold on 4th place (and a seemingly secure spot in the field of 68) on Thursday, Penn State and Michigan State are playing for their tournament lives also on Thursday, we have our regular Super Wednesday live chat, and Ohio State visits Wisconsin in the Game of the Year this Saturday.  Not a bad week.