In a battle of teams clinging to slim NCAA Tournament hopes, it was Michigan that prevailed with a 75-66 win over Northwestern. The Wolverines surprisingly had control most of the way (they were favored by just 3 points), leading by 15 at the break, and Northwestern had made no dent in that lead with just five minutes left in the game. From that point, the Wildcats needed less than three minutes to reel off 14 unanswered points to cut the lead to one. It seems they used all their bullets in that one spurt, as Northwestern would not score again and Michigan pulled away for the victory.

The surprising thing was the way Michigan's defense stifled Northwestern for most of the game. The late flurry brought the Wildcats up to a final 1.05 efficiency, but they were struggling at or below a point per possession most of the way. This is a far cry from the last time these two teams met, when Northwestern posted 1.26 points per trip. The main difference in the two games was turnovers--Michigan forced a miscue on 17 percent of Northwestern's possessions. That's a relatively low number, but the Wildcats only turned it over on 10 percent of their trips in the last meeting. Everything else about Northwestern's offense--shooting, rebounding, and free throws--was basically the same as it was in Evanston.

Michigan's offense continued its recent surge, as 68 percent shooting on twos and an offensive rebounding rate of 40 percent fueled the Wolverines to 1.19 points per trip. Jordan Morgan led this interior onslaught, scoring 27 points on just 13 shots. Tim Hardaway Jr. took care of the rest, posting a 17-10 double-double on 11 shots. Michael Thompson led Northwestern with 17 points on 13 shots but he turned it over four times.

Michigan now has a surprising chance at reaching nine conference wins, which would likely bring them onto the bubble. Pomeroy's odds give the Wolverines a nearly 20 percent chance of winning at least nine conference games. It's still more likely that Michigan settles for an NIT, but their recent play gives fans reason to hope.

For Northwestern, this almost dashes all hope of an at-large bid. Pomeroy's odds now give them around a 6 percent chance of winning at least nine conference games, and the rest of their resume just isn't good enough to make an 8-10 team worth considering. There's always the Big Ten Tournament, but it seems likely that the Wildcats will miss yet another NCAA Tournament.

In the night's other game, Wisconsin survived an awful start to knock off Iowa, 62-59 in overtime. The first half was reminiscent of the 38-33 Penn State/Illinois game of two seasons ago, as neither team could convert anything from the field. Iowa took a five point lead into the break, and while you figured Wisconsin would shoot better in the second half, it also seemed likely that their plodding tempo wouldn't lend itself to putting space between themselves and the Hawkeyes.

That's exactly what happened, as Wisconsin came out of the gate knocking down shot after shot to take a small lead. To their credit, the young Hawkeyes didn't fold, and instead fought hard all the way to the final horn. A long two from Jordan Taylor with 29 seconds left tied the game, and Bryce Cartwright's contested jumper was no good at the end of regulation.

In overtime, the Wisconsin offense continued its surge, scoring eight points in the first five possessions to secure a four point lead with 51 seconds remaining. From that point, Iowa was playing catchup, and eventually Cartwright missed a final three that would have tied it.

Despite the Badgers' deft scoring after intermission, it was still an outstanding defensive effort for the Hawkeyes, as Wisconsin scored just 0.98 points per possession--their second lowest of the conference slate, and just the fifth time all season Wisconsin has been held under a point per trip. The solid Iowa defense that we saw in nonconference play has seemingly returned, as the Hawkeyes have held opponents under a point per possession in five of their last seven games.

Unfortunately for Fran McCaffery's bunch, their offense wasn't up to the task, save for a nice stretch early in the second half. Iowa took only seven shots from behind the arc and got to the foul line only nine times. It's tough to be efficient relying entirely on twos, especially when you're only making them at a 45 percent clip. As a result, Iowa scored a paltry 0.93 points per possession.

Bryce Cartwright scored 14 points on 15 shots, while Melsahn Basabe posted a 13-11 double-double on 11 shots. Jarryd Cole chupped in a 10-12 double-double. Wisconsin was led, as usual, by Jordan Taylor (16 points on 18 shots, 8 assists to 2 turnovers) and Jon Leuer (19 points, 15 rebounds).

This performance certainly had the crowd at Carver Hawkeye feeling good about their team, and Iowa does have reason for optimism. McCaffery's team has exceeded my expectations for his first season, and there are probably a couple more conference wins in store.

Wisconsin can breathe a big sigh of relief and start focusing on their big Saturday matchup with Ohio State. The Badgers hadn't fared so well in close conference road games (losing at Illinois, Michigan State, and Penn State by a combined 15 points), so I'm sure they'll take this win any way they can get it.

Tonight, we have two important games in the muddled middle. First, at 6pm CT, Penn State visits Michigan State (BTN), followed by the 8pm CT tip of Illinois at Minnesota (ESPN). All four of these teams are coming off losses and could really use something positive right now, so we can expect to see some hungry play.

 - Posted by Mike Portscheller