A Big Ten fan could be forgiven for thinking they'd stepped back into 2009 after viewing last night's games. First, Michigan State came out like the Spartans of yore, dominating from the opening tip in a 75-57 win over Penn State. Like the 2009 National Runner-up, these Spartans scored their points with relentless offensive rebounding (they grabbed over half of their misses) and ample trips to the foul line (an 83.3 free throw rate, their highest of the season). Three-pointers were no longer the shot de jure, and Michigan State converted their many twos at a 59 percent clip. All of these superlatives added up to 1.32 points per possession, the Spartans' highest output of the season; that's a great offensive performance, regardless of opponent.
Draymond Green's triple-double (15 points, 14 rebounds, 10 assists) was the big headline, and for good reason--Green becomes just the third Spartan to ever accomplish the feat.To underscore how important Green's play was, consider that none of his teammates had more than three assists or four rebounds. Draymond had his hands on so much of this game, and it was one Michigan State had to have to salvage the season. Also encouraging to Spartan fans was the offensive play of Kalin Lucas: the senior guard scored 24 points on just 10 shots.
Penn State kept fighting in this one, but they were just never able get much closer than 10 points after the disastrous start. Jeff Brooks returned from injury to score 15 points on just 6 shots, while Talor Battle scored 19 points on 20 shots.
Michigan State is now 6-6 in the Big Ten, but they have a very tough patch ahead, starting with a trip to Ohio State on Tuesday. Pomeroy's computer gives them just over a 40 percent chance of finishing with nine or more conference wins, so their Tournament hopes are still very much alive. A surprise win in Columbus would obviously change things in a hurry.
In the night's other throwback game, Illinois defended like it was 2009 in a 71-62 road win over Minnesota. Bruce Weber sent a message with his starting lineup, inserting Meyers Leonard and Brandon Paul for Mike Tisdale and Demetri McCamey. The new lineup didn't fare so well on its own--Illinois had scored just four points on seven possessions when McCamey and Tisdale entered the game--but the motivational ploy seemed to work. Illinois was as active defensively as I've seen in conference play, and they forced turnovers on 22 percent of Minnesota's possessions. More importantly, the Gophers shot just 39 percent on twos and 27 percent on threes. All told, Minnesota was held to 0.86 points per trip, their lowest output of the season.
The Illinois offense wasn't much better until crunch time: from a 51-51 tie, the Illini would score 20 points over their final 12 possessions to secure the victory. That stretch was helped a bit by Minnesota putting Illinois on the line in catchup mode, but only six points were scored in that manner. For once, the Illini made plays down the stretch of a close game and got the win.
Demetri McCamey scored 17 points on 11 shots but turned it over five times. Mike Davis posted 17 points and 9 rebounds, while Jereme Richmond contributed without scoring much (6 rebounds, 3 steals, 4 assists, 1 turnover). Minnesota was led by Trevor Mbakwe's 17 points and 16 rebounds.
Needless to say, this is a big win for Illinois. According to Pomeroy's odds, the Illini now have a nearly 75 percent chance of winning at least 10 conference games, which would make them a lock for the NCAA Tournament. They could get there by simply winning out at home, but their next opponent--Purdue on Sunday--won't make that task easy. If the Illini win that one, their fans can forget about the bubble and start thinking about seeding.
This weekend brings some big clashes, with none bigger than Ohio State's visit to Wisconsin (1pm CT Saturday, ESPN). If the Buckeyes are going to lose a conference game, it likely happens in either Madison or West Lafayette. There's some other good matchups as well, so it should be another fun weekend of hoops.
- Posted by Mike Portscheller