With a win at Penn State, Minnesota could have made it a better than 50/50 shot that they'd reach 10 conference wins, putting themselves in a comfortable position to clinch an at-large bid. Instead, the Gopher defense couldn't slow down the Nittany Lions down the stretch and lost by a 66-63 margin.

Save for a brief 10-point Penn State lead, this one was tight all the way, with the Nittany Lions using a perimeter-oriented offensive approach to perfection. Penn State took an incredible 61 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and they made those ample threes at a 39 percent clip. The Lions have been turnover-averse all year, but keeping the action out on the perimeter helped them to their second-lowest turnover rate of the season (8.7 percent). Penn State didn't do much on the glass or at the foul line, but it didn't matter--they scored an efficient 1.15 points per trip.

Talor Battle poured in 28 points on 15 shots, including 7 of 14 from three. Tim Frazier ran the point masterfully, dropping 8 points, 8 assists, and just 2 turnovers. David Jackson scored 13 points on 13 shots. Penn State's advantage on the perimeter was clear.

Minnesota scored well themselves, hitting 43 percent on threes and 50 percent on twos, but a high turnover rate ultimately prevented them from keeping pace. Blake Hoffarber posted 18 points (15 shots) and 7 assists (2 turnovers), but his three freshmen backcourt mates combined for 7 points on 10 shots, no assists, and 2 turnovers. Trevor Mbakwe had his customary double-double (16 points, 12 boards), while Colton Iverson put up 6 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists.

This loss wasn't entirely unexpected for Minnesota--the Lions were favored, after all--but it does represent a missed opportunity. The Gophers now have six conference wins with four games remaining. It's certainly not impossible that they win out and comfortably secure an at-large bid (Pomeroy's odds give that scenario about a 15 percent chance), but it's more likely that they'll have to scrap for that ninth win. Minnesota's good wins over North Carolina, West Virginia, and Purdue will certainly help their cause, but it seems unlikely that they'd get in with anything less than nine Big Ten wins.

There's a very real chance (about one in three) that Minnesota wins only two or fewer of their remaining games, which would have them heading into the Big Ten Tournament with an 8-10 record and some serious work to do. Winning at Penn State could have relieved a lot of pressure, but now the Gophers face a borderline must-win on Tuesday when they host Michigan State.

In the night's other action, it was another defense-optional outing in Northwestern's 73-70 home win over Iowa. The Wildcats did well to make 43 percent of their threes and limit turnovers, but they allowed Iowa to dominate in the paint at the other end. The Hawkeyes made like Bob Knight, forgetting the three as they shot 54 percent on twos and grabbed 12 offensive rebounds. Jarryd Cole and Melsahn Basabe combined for 30 points and 15 boards, and the duo shot 72 percent inside the arc. All told, Iowa scored 1.09 points per trip, their sixth highest total of the season.

Northwestern's offense was even better, scoring 1.14 points per possession in a balanced attack. Michael Thompson, John Shurna, Drew Crawford, and Luka Mirkovic scored at least 13 points each, with Thompson also dishing 9 assists to no turnovers. Iowa has only allowed four Big Ten teams to score at this level, and Northwestern did it in both matchups. If only these Wildcats could defend...

As we inch closer to the Big Ten Tournament, this weekend brings some important matchups, with the biggest being Illinois at Michigan State (8pm CT Saturday, ESPN) and Ohio State at Purdue (12pm CT Sunday, CBS). The Illini and Spartans both need a strong finish to feel secure on Selection Sunday, and this game looks like a tossup. The Buckeyes can essentially assure themselves of an outright Big Ten title with a victory, while a Purdue win would put on the pressure down the stretch. Again, the numbers say this one should come down to the wire. It should be a very fun weekend.

- Posted by Mike Portscheller