Well, it looks like we have a real title race, after Purdue knocked off Ohio State 76-63 in West Lafayette.  Defensively, the Boilermakers pressured OSU into committing a turnover on over a quarter of their possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 42.6, each the second-worst marks posted by the Buckeyes this season.  The resulting 0.93 points per possession was likewise the second-worst mark for Thad Matta’s team on the year.  Offensively, Matt Painter just made sure E’Twaun Moore ate his Wheaties.  The senior guard lit up the Buckeyes for a career-high 38 points (that’s half the team’s total, mind you), on just 18 shots.  Moore scored his points all over the place--21 were on threes, 12 on twos, and another 5 at the free throw line.  The rest of the Boilers scored their 38 points on 37 shots.  Jared Sullinger led the way for Ohio State with 25 points on 14 shots.  
 
Not only did the win add drama to the stretch run, but it put to rest any doubts that the Boilers are second-class citizens amongst the frontrunners in the conference.  Indeed, the skepticism regarding Purdue was borne in part because the Boilermakers matched a weak non-conference schedule with a backloaded conference slate.  To wit, Purdue’s best three wins this season have come over the past week.  Certainly, we did not expect Purdue to play so well without Robbie Hummel this season, largely because the supporting cast was not set up to replace Hummel’s contributions.  I don’t think we were wrong about that--while each of Purdue’s role players has stepped up at various times this season, on the whole the group still consists of, well, role players.  The variable that I did not anticipate was that E’Twuan Moore and JaJuan Johnson would improve so much.  Both players have seen significant jumps in efficiency from last season, and considering the increased attention and responsibility they’ve taken on because of Hummel’s absence, the jumps are remarkable.  It’s not the kind of leap you expect to see in a player’s senior season, so give both of these guys credit.  The real scary thing is just how good Purdue would have been with Robbie Hummel.  I dare say, I think everyone underrated the Boilermakers in that scenario.

Ohio State still has the inside track on the conference title.  Even with another loss, the Buckeyes would still grab at least a share of the crown.  And only one road game--at Penn State--remains on OSU’s schedule.  Of course, the season finale against Wisconsin figures to be a great matchup.  

Michigan State continued to play like the team we thought that we would see this season in their 61-57 win over Illinois.  It was vintage Spartanball, with heavy doses of offensive rebounding and two-point superiority.  Although MSU was awful from three point range, the outside game was not a large part of the offensive strategy--another Izzo trademark.  Really, it was only because the Spartans were especially terrible from long range that they were held to just a point per possession.  Meanwhile, nothing came easy for Illinois’ offense.  The Illini shot 26 percent on three pointers, and just 42.5 percent inside the arc.  Coupled with their typical inability to draw fouls, and it was a lousy output of 0.93 points per possession.

The hero for Michigan State was Kalin Lucas, though I for one do not want to hear one more person say that Lucas is starting to look like the Kalin Lucas of old.  Frankly, that player has been around all season.  In fact, Lucas is having his best year ever as a Spartan, even better than 2009, when he won the conference Player of the Year honors.  No, really--he’s consuming more possessions with more efficiency against conference foes than any of his prior seasons.  Has he improved a lot since 2009?  No, not really--he’s still a shoot-first point guard who attempts too many two pointers (despite his 6-0 frame and his 37 percent accuracy from long distance).  He still is capable of generating his own shot whenever he needs to.  And he’s still worthy of 1st team consideration.  The offseason injury rehabilitation makes for a nice narrative to explain MSU’s stumbles, but it’s not very accurate.  There’s plenty of finger pointing to be had in East Lansing these days, but I don’t think any of them should be directed toward Mr. Lucas.

There’s also consternation in Champaign after the Illini lost yet another close game.  This particular defeat was also emblematic of Illinois’ struggles.  The team’s mid-range jumpers didn’t fall, free throws were rare, and the Illini fell apart down the stretch.  The game was tied at 51 with 2:31 remaining, whereupon Michigan State went on an 8-0 run.  It’s a script Illinois fans know all too well.  In any event, the Illini set for a 9-9 regular season record if everything goes to script.  While Bruce Weber’s team is probably in at that point, make no mistake, Illinois will be living in a bubble on Selection Sunday.

Speaking of bubbles, Michigan escaped Carver Hawkeye Arena with its intact, prevailing over Iowa in a 75-72 overtime thriller.  The Wolverines absolutely had to have this one in order to preserve their slim at-large hopes.  And this was definitely a tight contest--consider that a half court buzzer-beater from Bryce Cartwright was waived off after some intense video review from the officials.  And frankly, the video did not look all that conclusive to me.  

UM has three regular season games left (home matchups with Wisconsin and Michigan State, along with a road trip to Minneapolis).  Win all three, and they’re probably in.  Win two, and there’s probably work to be done.  Less than that, and they’re out.  The problem on Michigan’s tournament resume is that although they’ll be knocking on 20 wins on Selection Sunday, none of them are against top flight teams (as of now).  The Wolverines have two wins against the top 50 RPI, and both of those are above 40, meaning that another loss or two by those teams will do some real damage to UM’s resume.  I wouldn’t say that John Beilein put together a weak non-conference schedule, but it wasn’t exactly strong, either.  Not that I would begrudge Beilein.  He had an underclassmen roster that just got the Oostande beat out of them in Belgium.  Again, it’s just shocking how well he’s gotten these guys to play.

Speaking of underclassmen, both teams were showing off some of the gems in this fantastic 2010 class.  Tim Hardaway, Jr. led UM with a career high 30 points on just 14 shots, and he got some support from fellow freshman Jordan Morgan (18 points, 8 rebounds).  Melsahn Basabe of Iowa also had an extremely efficient game--19 points on 10 shots, 8 rebounds, 1 turnover, and zero fouls.  And he got help from Roy Marble (11 points), who got the start from McCaffrey in place of Eric May. 

This game was also a good reason why Michigan fans should be excited for the future, as 70 of the team’s 75 points were scored by freshmen or sophomores.  If the core of Hardaway, Morgan, and Darius Morris stick around and play together for a couple more seasons, this team is capable of winning a Big Ten title.  

Offense was the order of the day in Wisconsin’s 76-66 win over Penn State.  Consider that the Nittany Lions scored 1.2 points per possession, and lost by double figures.  But that’s what happens sometimes when you face the best offensive team in the country.  While Bo Ryan almost always has an excellent offensive team, this season the Badgers have gone into hyperdrive, averaging about 1.25 points per possession.  Unsurprisingly, the offense is fueled by excellent ball control.  In fact, Sunday’s 12.7 turnover rate is actually a bit high by Wisconsin’s conference play standards.  The low turnovers were paired with excellent shooting, best exhibited by Keaton Nankivil, who was 8 of 9 from the field (included a perfect 5 for 5 on three pointers) en route to 22 points.  Jeff Brooks scored 16 points for Penn State, also on 8 for 9 shooting.  

Wisconsin’s performance also puts Penn State in “must win” mode for the remainder of the regular season.  Even if they win out--and that would include two road victories and a win over Ohio State--the Lions would be sitting at 13 losses on Selection Sunday (assuming they don’t win the Big Ten Tournament, of course).  And it’s rare that 13-loss teams make the field, though it’s happened before (it’s also important to remember that there’s four more slots this season).  Even if PSU comes up short, the team has really impressed this season.  

It was a frustrating night in Bloomington as Indiana fell to Northwestern 70-64 in a 59 possession game.  It seemed that every time IU pulled close, a Northwestern would hit a three pointer that sucked the air out of Assembly Hall.  The Hoosiers never did get over the hump, as NU either led or the game was tied for the entirety of the second half.  There were two big reasons for Northwestern’s win, the first of which is that three is more than two.  Over half of the Wildcats’ shots were three pointers, which they drained at a 46 percent clip.  Good strategy, considering that the team shot just 42 percent on two pointers.  Indiana also played to its strength, dedicating approximately three-quarters of their shots to two pointers, which they hit 58 percent of the time.  On threes, IU was just 31 percent.  Of course, everything else equal, the team that shoots and makes threes will outscore the team that shoots and makes twos.  Because, well, three is more than two.  Michael Thompson and John Shurna led the Wildcat attack with 41 combined points on 23 shots.  

You’d expect though that because Northwestern was content to hoist jumpers all game long that Indiana would have a decided advantage at the free throw line.  Not so, as NU actually attempted six more free throws than the Hoosiers.  Chalk that up to IU’s ongoing difficulties in controlling its fouling tendencies.  Will Sheehey, for instance, had some real issues in controlling his hacking, accumulating 4 fouls in just 18 minutes.  Strangely, despite Sheehey’s foul trouble, Victor Oladipo saw just 8 minutes of action.  #FreeOladipo  

Now sitting at 12-15, with only games against Ohio State, Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin remaining, I hereby declare IU’s NIT hopes dead.  Northwestern’s at-large hopes are still technically alive, but it involves winning at the Kohl Center and probably another game or two in the Big Ten Tournament.  And that’s just not happening.

Play resumes Tuesday night, with Illinois visiting Ohio State, and Michigan State hits the road to face Minnesota.  As bubble teams, everyone but OSU really could use the win, and Ohio State needs the W to make sure they at least get a piece of the title.  Should be a good night of hoops.