Michigan has really thrown a wrench into the at-large picture in the Big Ten.  Just a week ago, I thought Minnesota was in relatively good shape.  Sure, the Gophers were sitting at 6-8 in conference play, but with 3 of the 4 remaining games at home--none of which against Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, or Illinois--as well as a road game at Northwestern, 9 or 10 wins certainly seemed possible.  Well, two home losses later, now it looks like Minnesota has work to do in the Big Ten Tournament.  The latest loss came at the hands of a surging Michigan team, who prevailed 70-63 thanks to some hot outside shooting.  The Wolverines made 12 of 28 three pointers, and when Michigan makes their threes, they’re very difficult to stop.  Of course, if Michigan is making that many three pointers, something is wrong with the defense.  Half of their attempts came from long range, and obviously many of those were very good looks.  So chalk this up as another data point for how much Minnesota misses Al Nolen.  Since the guard was lost to injury, the Gophers are 2-7.  The guy is earning his reputation in the Bob Sanders, notice-him-when-he’s-not-there-kind of way.
 
Back to Michigan--the Wolverines are staring down a matchup with in-state rival Michigan State in what might be the most unlikely dramatic game of the season.  Whatever you thought of Michigan’s freshmen this season, the progress of the Wolverines has been startling.  Why the turnaround?  Well, at the end of the day, this game comes down to shooting:

Obviously, the biggest turnaround has come at the defensive end, which is even more surprising considering how undersized the Wolverines usually are (starting just one true post player).  John Beilein’s got these guys very close to a tournament berth, and deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround.  He might deserve more credit for his recruiting, however, given that he reeled in the talented Tim Hardaway Jr (who poured in 22 points on Saturday).  This kid is a player, and frankly, he’s easily among the 10 best freshmen in the entire country.  Don’t believe me?  Here’s how he stacks up in terms of offensive rating and possessions consumed in conference play with some other more recognizable freshmen:

It’s not like Hardaway is a tweener, either.  At 6-5, he’s got the size to play guard at the next level.  We should probably see Hardaway on more mock draft boards, very soon.

The Wolverines will be facing a Michigan State team that can’t afford any more losses before the Big Ten Tournament, after they were pounded by Purdue 67-47 on Sunday.  The Spartans just couldn’t make a shot against Purdue’s defense: 39 percent on two pointers, 1 of 11 on threes, and the Boilers limited Michigan State to just 11 free throws.  And if that’s not bad enough, MSU rebounded just a quarter of their misses.  The resulting 0.72 points per possession is the lowest total in just over three years (going back to a 36-point road effort at Iowa in 2008).  Kalin Lucas had 23 points on 20 shots--the rest of the Spartans scored 24 points on 37 shots.  With Durrell Summers in a tailspin (39 points on 50 shots in his last 7 games), MSU’s offense has fallen apart.  This was the 4th straight game they were held to under a point per possession.  In conference play, Michigan State has scored the second-fewest points per possession in the Big Ten.  
 
Now at 16-12, and assuming the Spartans do not win the Big Ten Tournament, MSU is staring at the best-case scenario of 13 losses on Selection Sunday.  Frankly, even that seems dicey.  Michigan State has 3 top 50 wins as of now, and the only way they get another is in the conference tournament.  No matter what happens when MSU faces Michigan next Saturday, the Spartans will have work to do in Indianapolis.  The only question is how much work will be required.  
 
Purdue, on the other hand, just keeps on going, and now has its eyes set on a #1 seed as well as a possible share of the conference crown.  Although there is no consistent third scorer on this team, the supporting cast has effectively adopted the Windows 7 philosophy of embracing the cloud.  Between Ryne Smith, Lewis Jackson, D.J. Byrd, et al., a third scorer always shows up.  You never know who it will be, only that he will be there.  Against the Spartans, it was LewJack (16 points along with 7 assists).  Of course, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore were typically excellent (combined 37 points).  
 
Illinois took care of business against Iowa at home, 81-68.  The Illini made it a priority to get the ball inside, and the strategy paid off, as Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis combined for 45 points on 26 shots.  Overall, Illinois shot 66 percent on two pointers.  The shots they did miss, the rebounded 40 percent of the time.  The resulting 1.2 points per possession posted by Bruce Weber’s team was its best in nearly two months.  Illinois still has work to do to secure an NCAA bid, so now would be a good time for the offense to get moving again.  Melsahn Basabe led Iowa with 17 points on 9 shots.  
 
Illinois likely needs one more conference win to have better than even odds of getting an at-large bid.  If they win both of their remaining games, they’d be a lock.  But that would mean winning in West Lafayette, something no team other than Purdue has done this season.

 
Ohio State easily dispatched with Indiana 82-61 in a 68 possession game.  The Buckeyes lived at the free throw line, with 36 attempts against 49 field goal attempts.  While some credit is obviously due to Thad Matta’s team, fouling has been a severe problem for the Hoosiers all season.  Derek Elston and Tom Pritchard combined for 9 fouls in just 32 minutes--it’s very difficult to be a net positive when you’re hacking that much.  The silver lining for Indiana is that Tom Crean is finally putting Victor Oladipo into the starting lineup.  The freshman had 9 points on 6 shots, and perhaps more importantly, committed just one foul in 24 minutes.
 
The Hoosiers are obviously playing for next season, and other than Christian Watford, I don’t see enough frontline talent on the roster for this team to take a big leap.  Of course, top recruit Cody Zeller is all set to hit Bloomington this fall.  If he can play up to his billing, we could see a significant improvement next season from IU.  
 
Speaking of next season, DeShaun Thomas gave a glimpse of what Ohio State could look like in a year.  The freshman dropped 22 on the Hoosiers, which is quite a feat considering he shot just 9 times and played just 24 minutes.  Thomas has not been nearly as efficient against Big Ten foes as he was in the non-conference slate, although he’s been shooting just as often.  Nonetheless, I expect big things from the hybrid wing player next season.  There’s a lot of NBA talent on Ohio State’s roster right now, and depending on how much of it leaves for the NBA next year, Thomas might end up being the focal point in Columbus.  It’s no secret that he likes to shoot, so I’m sure Thomas is just fine with that arrangement.

Finally, Wisconsin sent its seniors out with a 78-63 win over Northwestern in a 56 possession game.  Jon Leuer's final game at the Kohl Center was fitting, as he finished with 26 points on 14 shots.  Fellow senior Keaton Nankivil chipped in 15 points himself.  Both teams were red-hot from the outside (Wisconsin shot 42 percent from three, Northwestern was 52 percent), but the Badgers' interior dominance was the difference.  UW shot 68 percent on two pointers, and it seems like a foregone conclusion that for the second year in a row, and the third year over the past four seasons, that Northwestern will once again sport the conference's worst defense. 

On the other end, Wisconsin will likely post the conference's best offense for the second season in a row.  Although Bo Ryan's team has only a remote shot at sharing the conference title, there's still plenty for this team to play for.  The Badgers likely end up as high as a #2 seed or possibly as low as a #5 seed, if their history of underseeding is any guide.  And next weekend's matchup against Ohio State figures to decide whether Purdue will get to share any of the conference crown.