In the college coaching community, there's almost no idea that is more deeply ingrained than the following formula:

 

2 fouls + first half = bench

 

This is so commonly accepted as the correct move that any variance from its wisdom is certain to prompt TV commentators to focus intently on it, with terms like "rolling the dice" being the norm. But is this always the correct move, regardless of the player?

 

Take last night's 75-67 Purdue win over Illinois. Bruce Weber's team was on fire out of the gates, passing and cutting their way to easy looks against the normally stingy Purdue defense. After 18 possessions, the Illini held a 31-18 lead and had the Boilers back on their heels. This was the good Illinois offense that we haven't seen much of in conference play, and they were scoring at will against one of the nation's hottest teams. Then, Demetri McCamey picked up his second foul.

 

Among McCamey's proven skills is his ability to play without fouling (whether he is defending well or not is a separate matter). The senior guard has averaged 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes this season, which is right around his career average. With this in mind, was there really that much risk in leaving him in the game with two fouls? His average works out to one foul every 17 minutes, and there were 28 minutes remaining in the game when McCamey picked up his second. It's unlikely that McCamey would have fouled out of this game, even if he hadn't spent a single minute on the bench. Still, Weber took his point guard out of the game with a 13 point lead, presumably thinking that his team could nurse the lead into halftime.

 

Purdue promptly went on a 19-6 run that evened the score heading into the break. The Illinois offense had scored 1.72 points per trip before McCamey went to the bench, and they scored 0.46 points per trip with him sitting. The contest certainly wasn't over after this Purdue run--it was still a halftime tie, after all--but the whole dynamic of the game changed. The Boilermakers struck first in the second half, and they would never trail again. Illinois managed to keep it close, trailing by only three points with the ball and just over two minutes remaining, but Purdue locked down defensively in crunchtime to seal the win.

 

None of this is to say that keeping McCamey in the game would have changed the outcome; the Illinois offense was going to slow down at some point anyway, simply because no team can sustain that level of efficiency. Still, it's an open question as to whether Bruce Weber gave his team their best shot at winning by letting the big lead evaporate with his point guard on the bench. McCamey played the entire second half and did not foul again, finishing with two fouls in 30 minutes.

 

With that rant out of the way, let's turn to the Boilermakers. This was yet another impressive offensive performance for Purdue--the Boilers scored 1.14 points per possession, the third highest output allowed by Illinois all season. It was driven by a low turnover rate and great three-point shooting (42 percent). Both of those things are enabled by E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson's ability to take tough shots and convert them at a reasonable rate, leaving the rest of the team to shoot only when they are comfortable and open. It's a formula that can work when you've got two potential all-conference players, and to this point Purdue's offense has been almost as impressive as their defense. Make no mistake, Purdue is a legit Final Four contender, proving this Geek's preseason doubts about their offense to be completely unfounded.

 

Johnson and Moore combined for 41 points on 31 shots and just 3 turnovers, but they got great support from D.J. Byrd (16 points, 7 rebounds) and Ryne Smith (8 points, 9 rebounds). The latter two players combined to shoot 5 of 12 from three, mostly on open looks provided by the attention paid to the Big Two.

 

Illinois was led by McCamey's 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists, while Mike Davis posted a 12-10 double-double. Brandon Paul and Jereme Richmond, who figure to be the focal points of next year's team, combined for 20 points on 15 shots.

 

Illinois can actually take some encouragement from their performance--compare their 8-point loss with what Ohio State (lost by 13) and Wisconsin (lost by 8) recently did at Mackey. If the Illini play like this for the rest of the season, they could reach the Sweet Sixteen. The problem is that you just never know what you will get from this bunch, and they need to win at home against Indiana on Saturday and win the 4/5 game of the Big Ten Tournament to feel secure about an at-large bid. There is still work to be done.

 

With the win, Purdue maintains an outside shot at a share of the conference crown. The Boilermakers play at Iowa on Saturday, a game that should get them to 15 conference wins. Ohio State hosts Wisconsin on Sunday, so it's not completely impossible that the Buckeyes could stumble and share their title with Purdue. Pomeroy's odds suggest that there's an 18 percent chance of that scenario unfolding.

 

Speaking of Ohio State, the Buckeyes had absolutely no trouble on the road against Penn State in an 82-61 win. On paper, this looked like a game that could potentially result in an upset--after all, the Nittany Lions have been very good at home--but the Buckeyes steadily built their lead to 15 points by halftime. This was due in no small part to the shooting of Jon Diebler, who hit five first half threes. The second half brought more of the same, and Diebler finished with 30 points on just 12 shots, all from downtown. His 10 made threes tied a conference record.

 

All told, Ohio State's offense posted 1.31 points per possession, amazingly just their sixth-highest output of the season. The Buckeyes are really firing on all cylinders down the stretch, and we could see some serious fireworks in the season finale against Wisconsin.

 

To go along with his 30 points, Diebler also dished 5 assists against no turnovers. William Buford chipped in 21 points on 14 shots, while Jared Sullinger had a bit of an off-night: 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 turnovers. That the Buckeyes scored so easily without much from their freshman phenom is mighty impressive.

 

Penn State was led by a valliant effort from Talor Battle (18 points on 14 shots), but their offense was doomed by uncharacteristic turnover problems, primarily in the form of Tim Frazier (3 assists, 6 turnovers). Andrew Jones and David Jackson chipped in 22 points on 14 shots.

 

This loss seemingly slams the door on Penn State's at-large hopes, as they'll finish with at least 14 losses if they don't win the Big Ten Tournament. They've got a road trip to Minnesota on Sunday, then they'll have serious work to do in Indianapolis. It's been a better season for Penn State than many expected, but it looks like they're going to fall short of the NCAA Tournament thanks to an unimpressive non-conference performance (really, how did they lose at home to Maine?).

 

Ohio State is really on a roll, and the home tilt against Wisconsin is all that stands between them and an outright Big Ten title. Beyond that, the Buckeyes will head into the Big Ten Tournament looking to solidify their case for a #1 seed, with a chance to perhaps claim the #1 overall seed.

 

Tonight, it's our final Super Wednesday liveblog of the season, with both games showing on the Big Ten Network. At 5:30pm CT, Iowa visits Michigan State in a must-win game for the Spartans. Michigan State looked terrible at home against Purdue, so a good performance could serve as a nice springboard into their huge weekend game at Michigan. A loss could be devastating to Michigan State's hopes.

 

At 7:30pm CT, Minnesota limps to Northwestern with their at-large hopes nearly dashed. There's still a chance for Tubby Smith's team, if they can finish 8-10 and make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament, but that makes winning this game is an absolute requirement.

 

We're expecting to be joined in our liveblog by Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com, so we'll be fully equipped to talk seeding and bubbles. Join us with your questions and comments as we jump into March!

 

- Posted by Mike Portscheller