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Josh: Well, Mike, time for one last exchange before the Big Ten Tournament starts. Usually, this space is reserved to analyze what we did right, and what we did wrong. I'll get the hard part out the way: we were so, so wrong about Purdue. Epically wrong. Not even in the ballpark. We guessed 9-9, and it turns out they were better than perhaps any team in the conference last season. So how did we miss the mark so badly? Well, while I think most people have it in their minds that Jeff Brooks or Christian Watford were this year's breakout players, there's a good argument to be made for JaJuan Johnson. He shot better on 2s, 3s, free throws, and significantly lowered his turnovers, and he did all of this while increasing his usage and with defenses focusing on him more. I have to say, I didn't see that coming. Beyond that, while there weren't any huge leaps within the supporting cast, every night seemed to feature at least one third scorer. It's as if the Boilers were on a chore schedule.
Beyond that, I think we missed on Michigan State, though we missed less than everyone else did. Hard to believe, but this was a consensus top-5 team in the preseason. Neither you or I were all that impressed, and ranked them 4th in the Big Ten. Well, turns out even that was optimistic. Looking back, the obvious problems were on offense. MSU posted the second-worst offensive numbers in the conference, and what dragged it down was two point shooting, where the Spartans ranked dead last. It's very difficult to believe that a Tom Izzo-coached team can struggle so much in the paint, but that's what happened. How? Well, from my view Draymond Green took a step back, and Durrell Summers took about three steps back. Kalin Lucas was in top form, but his upside will always be limited because he's a short player who insists on attempting a lot of two point shots. While MSU might still make the tournament, it's hard to see them doing any real damage if they get there. As for next season, Tom Izzo needs Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne to grow up in a hurry, and he also needs to figure out who will be his point guard. There are a lot of questions in East Lansing.
OK, over to you to explain the two small miracles in the Big Ten--Penn State and Michigan. Oh, and here are some final efficiency numbers to chew on
Mike: Great summary of those misses--we definitely were way off on Purdue. You're spot-on about JaJuan Johnson; he went from being a merely good Big Ten center to being (rightly) involved in National Player of the Year discussions. His heavy diet of midrange shots still holds him back a bit, but he's so good at that shot that he gets away with it (Johnson shot a hair under 50 percent on twos in Big Ten play). The only real negative side effect of all the outside play has been his big drop in free throw rate--Johnson led the Big Ten in getting to the line last season, and this year he's just 11th. Still, this is nitpicking, as Johnson has had a phenomenal senior season and Purdue looks like a Final Four contender.
With Penn State, the bigger question may be: why were they so mediocre in nonconference play? If Penn State took care of business at home against Maine and got a win at Mississippi, neither of which would look difficult right now, they'd probably be on the right side of the bubble instead of needing a big run in Indianapolis. I think our preseason take on the Nittany Lions was reasonable, as we saw Talor Battle, David Jackson, and not much else, but the emergence of Jeff Brooks really changed that offense. Brooks was a bad bench player in his first two seasons, then he started to show signs of his ability as a junior. This season, Brooks put it all together and has become one of the conference's most accurate shooters. In my mind, the unexpected play of Brooks accounts for most of Penn State's over-achievement.
As for Michigan, there were just surprises all over the place. Darius Morris went from a timid low-usage freshman to a ball-dominating sophomore, and he got more efficient in the process. Tim Hardaway Jr. came in as a 3-star freshman and put up an offensive season that would be good enough for first-team honors in some years. Jordan Morgan led the Big Ten in field goal percentage as a redshirt freshman. Those three players were off-the-charts surprises, and their emergence allowed the rest of the roster to just play their roles. But maybe we shouldn't be too surprised by the offense--John Beilein has established himself as a great offensive coach, and playing within his system surely helped these young guys. The big surprise is how well Michigan has defended. Seeing such a young team finish just outside the nation's top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency is truly impressive, especially considering their lack of height inside. If the Coach of the Year award goes to the guy whose team most exceeded expectations, it's hard to give it to anyone but Beilein.
All that said, it's interesting to see that the Wolverines finished with the same negative efficiency margin as freefalling 6-12 Minnesota. The answer may be obvious, but what went wrong for the Gophers?
Josh: You're right, the answer seems obvious, and maybe Al Nolen is the Bob Sanders of the Big Ten. But maybe it's not that simple. After all, the Gophers had the most problems on offense, and that's not really Nolen's calling card. In fact, Al Nolen might be the worst pickup game player in the conference, because almost all of his offensive production is tied up in his ability to get to the free throw line. What killed Minnesota, really, is that they only had one Blake Hoffarber. Even though this team liked a three pointer about as much as Pat Knight (just 25.9% of their attempts were 3s), they were still incredibly inaccurate (just 29.6%). The Hoff played well enough, but everyone else on the team was putrid from the outside. Opposing defenses recognized this, sagged off the Gophers, and the result was a crowded paint area that was well defended and led to far too many turnovers. Yes, losing Al Nolen hurt quite a bit. But I wonder if it's the other point guard they lost, Devoe Joseph, that was the bigger absence.
What about Northwestern? I didn't think they would dance this season, but I expected better than this. Was this all because Shurna was banged up for most of the season?
Mike: You could certainly make that argument on the offensive end. Shurna's junior season was nowhere near as productive as his sophomore one, and I'm sure at least some of that stems from his injury. Shurna's dropoff probably explains the dip in Northwestern's offensive output (from 1.08 ppp last season to 1.06 ppp this year).
Still, the big issue--and it feels like we've been saying this forever--is the Wildcats' defense. We knew Northwestern would have a good-to-great offense, and we always said the key for them getting into the NCAA Tournament would be shoring up that D. There was literally zero improvement on that end of the floor, and the result is another losing conference record and (probably) another NIT bid. Northwestern is no longer short, yet they allowed Big Ten opponents to shoot 56.5 percent on twos. You just aren't going to stop anybody with a number like that. If I'm a Northwestern fan, I start to wonder if Bill Carmody is ever going to be able to put a decent defense on the floor.
I'll let you handle possibly the conference's biggest enigma--what's up with this Illinois team? Are they capable of finally putting together a run, or are they doomed to finish with a whimper?
Josh: Your guess on the Illini is as good as mine. This is Team Schizo. In tempo free terms, they've only been as good as the 08-09 Illini in conference play, but they were better than that in the non-conference slate. Sure, some close-game back luck has visited them, and the free throw "defense" has been bad, but this team does not play like it's full of seniors. Specifically, they do not value the basketball as much as they should. If they hold onto the basketball, this can be a great team. You know how Ohio State broke the 80.0 eFG mark against Wisconsin, and everyone is raving about how good the Buckeyes look? Yeah, Illinois has done that to a Big Ten team as well this season. Twice.
So I'm not ruling anything out.
Before we go patting ourselves on the back for correctly pegging Ohio State and Wisconsin, tell me about Iowa and Indiana, and the rebuilding efforts going on there. Which team has a brighter future?
Mike: Before the season started, I would have thought that was a silly question. Iowa has played a lot better than I expected this season, especially freshman Melsahn Basabe. We've said it many times, but it's hard to believe that this guy was all signed up to play at Siena. He'll give the Hawkeyes a legitimate big man to build around for the next three seasons. Iowa's other young players have struggled offensively, but it does look like Fran McCaffery has that program going in the right direction.
Still, despite finishing behind Iowa this season, you have to like the future for the Hoosiers. There's clearly talent on that team, and most of it is just finishing its freshman or sophomore campaign. On top of that, Tom Crean has a huge recruit coming next season in Cody Zeller, and the next two classes after that should be very kind to IU as well. This exhibits the huge difference between rebuilding at Indiana and rebuilding at Iowa--the Hoosier state produces a heck of a lot more talent. Indiana will get back on the national map at some point, but it may not be until Crean's fifth or sixth season. That's a long process, but rebuilding from zero takes time. The first step is to stop fouling like maniacs.
Ok, commence back-patting. Ohio State and Wisconsin--we were in on these teams before most, but what have they done that you didn't expect?
Josh: Well, for starters, I did not expect the Big Ten to feature the #1 (Wisconsin) and #2 (Ohio State) offenses in the country. What's more, they're not really close to anyone else. The points per possession differential between Ohio State and the next highest team (Notre Dame) is roughly the difference between Notre Dame and the #12 team. What I did expect, however, is for these teams to retain their stripes. Wisconsin scores via turnover minimization, while Ohio State is just deadly from the field. Indeed, the Badgers had the lowest turnover percentage by a power conference team, well, maybe ever (I can only find numbers going back to 1996-97). Of course, the season isn't over, and the 2005-06 West Virginia Beileiners might still have something to say about that.
Record-breaking or not, this Wisconsin team is the ultimate example of a team that doesn't beat themselves. They hold onto the ball of course, but they also lead the country in free throw percentage. Also, in true Bo Ryan fashion, they crash the defensive glass (but rarely gamble for steals or blocks). Sure, it's a little throwback, but it's very effective. There's a reason your 7th grade basketball coach was trying to get everyone to made good passes, practice free throws, and rebound--it works. Of course, that's not to say there isn't talent on this Wisconsin team. I think both Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer are legitimate NBA prospects, and stand to make lots of dough from their ability to create shots without being reckless.
Nonetheless, no one would dare accuse Ohio State of lacking in talent. Thad's been recruiting at a high level for years now, so it's kind of ho-hum at this point, but for those that love the "eye test," the Buckeyes look like the best team in the country. In terms of individual, developed, talent, I'm not sure there's another team out there that comes close (Kansas? Maybe?). What's also nice is how well the pieces fit together. You have the big man in the middle, of course, and he's the engine that makes them go. But there's also a couple of deadeye shooters that punish teams for collapsing, a slasher that prevents opponents from closing out to hard, and a couple of great defensive players in Aaron Craft and Dallas Lauderdale. Everything just fits so well--they're like the Voltron of college basketball. And that's why they're going to show up as champs on a lot of office brackets.
Before I send it over to you for some final thoughts, I just want to comment a bit about the great untold story of this season's Big Ten. Obviously, the class of 2007 has been powering the league for 4 years now, and it'll stretch into five next season as the likes of Trevor Mbakwe finish out their careers. Certainly though, there's going to be a big dropoff. But there's also been a rebirth of sorts in the conference. Frankly, I can't remember a season with so many productive freshmen since, well, the class of 2007 landed. Obviously, Jared Sullinger is the main draw. But there's also Tim Hardaway, Jr., who would be the runaway Freshman of the Year in any other season. Guys like Melsahn Basabe, Victor Oladipo, and Jereme Richmond have also been very good in conference play. But this is a deep class too--DeShaun Thomas might be the best scorer of the bunch, Jordan Morgan is an extremely advanced big man, Aaron Craft is already one of the 5 best defenders in the Big Ten, and Josh Gasser was extremely efficient (albeit with a low shot diet). And there's more talent in the well, too. Keith Appling and Adreian Payne were highly-touted recruits, as was Illinois' Meyers Leonard and OSU's Jordan Sibert. Eventually, some of those guys will round into form as well.
So while, yes, the Big Ten will be worse next year than this season, it's only a temporary setback. The class of 2010 has ensured the conference will be strong for years to come.
OK, I'll send it over to you for some final thoughts, and to reveal the All-Geek Team.
Mike: Well said on the classes of 2007 and 2010. The conference will indeed see a dip next season, and, assuming Sullinger leaves for the NBA, the Big Ten race will be wide open. Most of the teams in the lower half of the conference return almost everyone (Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern), while the teams at the top will see a lot of turnover. It's obviously too early to know, but it's possible that next season's Big Ten won't have a single Final Four contender, so we should enjoy this month's NCAA Tournament runs while we can.
As far as the All-Geek Team, I think we're in complete agreement about the first four: Jordan Taylor, JaJuan Johnson, Jon Leuer, and Jared Sullinger. All of these guys used up lots of possessions in a very efficient manner for very good teams. The last spot is a little more up-for-grabs. From prior discussions we've had, I think this one comes down to scoring guards E'Twaun Moore and Talor Battle and rebounding monster Trevor Mbakwe. Who gets the honors and why?
Josh: You're certainly no Larry King, Mike. Well, I think you're right on the three finalists, so now I'll judge between them. As I wrote elsewhere, Trevor Mbakwe appears to be very good defensively, if not the best defensive player in the conference. Of course, I understand if there are skeptics out there. For one, the Gophers sported just the 5th best defense in the conference. Then there's also the fact that Stops does not punish a player for fouling. Indeed, it's really just about, well, stops. There's no real punishment for bad defense, just rewards for good defense. So there's definitely limitations. I'll come back to Mbakwe in a minute.
Between the two guards, I'd probably pick Moore. Offensively, the two were very close, with a slight edge to Battle. But Moore puts up the better defensive numbers on a better defensive team--it seems clear he's got the edge on defense.
So that leaves a battle between Moore and Mbakwe. Putting Stops aside for the moment, let's make the defensive case for Mbakwe. He led the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.3). You have to go back to 2001-02 to find a mark that high (Reggie Evans). And Evans just tied him--you have to go back to 1996-97 to find a higher percentage (posted by one of the original Flintstones, Antonio Smith). Mbakwe's rebounding isn't all he brings, either. He's also fifth in the league in block percentage. Mbakwe also grabs a healthy number of steals for a big man. And Stops certainly isn't a worthless stat, as it correlates with year-over-year gains and losses on the defensive end. Overall, I just see a huge edge for Mbakwe on defense, and his offense is certainly good enough for the 2nd team on its own.
So that's my pick, Trevor Mbakwe. I don't think one offensive rebound would ever be captured against the All Geek Team:
Jordan Taylor
JaJuan Johnson
Jared Sullinger
Jon Leuer
Trevor Mbakwe
Well, it's been a heck of a season, Mike, but still a lot of basketball left. See you in Indianapolis.
Beyond that, I think we missed on Michigan State, though we missed less than everyone else did. Hard to believe, but this was a consensus top-5 team in the preseason. Neither you or I were all that impressed, and ranked them 4th in the Big Ten. Well, turns out even that was optimistic. Looking back, the obvious problems were on offense. MSU posted the second-worst offensive numbers in the conference, and what dragged it down was two point shooting, where the Spartans ranked dead last. It's very difficult to believe that a Tom Izzo-coached team can struggle so much in the paint, but that's what happened. How? Well, from my view Draymond Green took a step back, and Durrell Summers took about three steps back. Kalin Lucas was in top form, but his upside will always be limited because he's a short player who insists on attempting a lot of two point shots. While MSU might still make the tournament, it's hard to see them doing any real damage if they get there. As for next season, Tom Izzo needs Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne to grow up in a hurry, and he also needs to figure out who will be his point guard. There are a lot of questions in East Lansing.
OK, over to you to explain the two small miracles in the Big Ten--Penn State and Michigan. Oh, and here are some final efficiency numbers to chew on
Mike: Great summary of those misses--we definitely were way off on Purdue. You're spot-on about JaJuan Johnson; he went from being a merely good Big Ten center to being (rightly) involved in National Player of the Year discussions. His heavy diet of midrange shots still holds him back a bit, but he's so good at that shot that he gets away with it (Johnson shot a hair under 50 percent on twos in Big Ten play). The only real negative side effect of all the outside play has been his big drop in free throw rate--Johnson led the Big Ten in getting to the line last season, and this year he's just 11th. Still, this is nitpicking, as Johnson has had a phenomenal senior season and Purdue looks like a Final Four contender.
With Penn State, the bigger question may be: why were they so mediocre in nonconference play? If Penn State took care of business at home against Maine and got a win at Mississippi, neither of which would look difficult right now, they'd probably be on the right side of the bubble instead of needing a big run in Indianapolis. I think our preseason take on the Nittany Lions was reasonable, as we saw Talor Battle, David Jackson, and not much else, but the emergence of Jeff Brooks really changed that offense. Brooks was a bad bench player in his first two seasons, then he started to show signs of his ability as a junior. This season, Brooks put it all together and has become one of the conference's most accurate shooters. In my mind, the unexpected play of Brooks accounts for most of Penn State's over-achievement.
As for Michigan, there were just surprises all over the place. Darius Morris went from a timid low-usage freshman to a ball-dominating sophomore, and he got more efficient in the process. Tim Hardaway Jr. came in as a 3-star freshman and put up an offensive season that would be good enough for first-team honors in some years. Jordan Morgan led the Big Ten in field goal percentage as a redshirt freshman. Those three players were off-the-charts surprises, and their emergence allowed the rest of the roster to just play their roles. But maybe we shouldn't be too surprised by the offense--John Beilein has established himself as a great offensive coach, and playing within his system surely helped these young guys. The big surprise is how well Michigan has defended. Seeing such a young team finish just outside the nation's top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency is truly impressive, especially considering their lack of height inside. If the Coach of the Year award goes to the guy whose team most exceeded expectations, it's hard to give it to anyone but Beilein.
All that said, it's interesting to see that the Wolverines finished with the same negative efficiency margin as freefalling 6-12 Minnesota. The answer may be obvious, but what went wrong for the Gophers?
Josh: You're right, the answer seems obvious, and maybe Al Nolen is the Bob Sanders of the Big Ten. But maybe it's not that simple. After all, the Gophers had the most problems on offense, and that's not really Nolen's calling card. In fact, Al Nolen might be the worst pickup game player in the conference, because almost all of his offensive production is tied up in his ability to get to the free throw line. What killed Minnesota, really, is that they only had one Blake Hoffarber. Even though this team liked a three pointer about as much as Pat Knight (just 25.9% of their attempts were 3s), they were still incredibly inaccurate (just 29.6%). The Hoff played well enough, but everyone else on the team was putrid from the outside. Opposing defenses recognized this, sagged off the Gophers, and the result was a crowded paint area that was well defended and led to far too many turnovers. Yes, losing Al Nolen hurt quite a bit. But I wonder if it's the other point guard they lost, Devoe Joseph, that was the bigger absence.
What about Northwestern? I didn't think they would dance this season, but I expected better than this. Was this all because Shurna was banged up for most of the season?
Mike: You could certainly make that argument on the offensive end. Shurna's junior season was nowhere near as productive as his sophomore one, and I'm sure at least some of that stems from his injury. Shurna's dropoff probably explains the dip in Northwestern's offensive output (from 1.08 ppp last season to 1.06 ppp this year).
Still, the big issue--and it feels like we've been saying this forever--is the Wildcats' defense. We knew Northwestern would have a good-to-great offense, and we always said the key for them getting into the NCAA Tournament would be shoring up that D. There was literally zero improvement on that end of the floor, and the result is another losing conference record and (probably) another NIT bid. Northwestern is no longer short, yet they allowed Big Ten opponents to shoot 56.5 percent on twos. You just aren't going to stop anybody with a number like that. If I'm a Northwestern fan, I start to wonder if Bill Carmody is ever going to be able to put a decent defense on the floor.
I'll let you handle possibly the conference's biggest enigma--what's up with this Illinois team? Are they capable of finally putting together a run, or are they doomed to finish with a whimper?
Josh: Your guess on the Illini is as good as mine. This is Team Schizo. In tempo free terms, they've only been as good as the 08-09 Illini in conference play, but they were better than that in the non-conference slate. Sure, some close-game back luck has visited them, and the free throw "defense" has been bad, but this team does not play like it's full of seniors. Specifically, they do not value the basketball as much as they should. If they hold onto the basketball, this can be a great team. You know how Ohio State broke the 80.0 eFG mark against Wisconsin, and everyone is raving about how good the Buckeyes look? Yeah, Illinois has done that to a Big Ten team as well this season. Twice.
So I'm not ruling anything out.
Before we go patting ourselves on the back for correctly pegging Ohio State and Wisconsin, tell me about Iowa and Indiana, and the rebuilding efforts going on there. Which team has a brighter future?
Mike: Before the season started, I would have thought that was a silly question. Iowa has played a lot better than I expected this season, especially freshman Melsahn Basabe. We've said it many times, but it's hard to believe that this guy was all signed up to play at Siena. He'll give the Hawkeyes a legitimate big man to build around for the next three seasons. Iowa's other young players have struggled offensively, but it does look like Fran McCaffery has that program going in the right direction.
Still, despite finishing behind Iowa this season, you have to like the future for the Hoosiers. There's clearly talent on that team, and most of it is just finishing its freshman or sophomore campaign. On top of that, Tom Crean has a huge recruit coming next season in Cody Zeller, and the next two classes after that should be very kind to IU as well. This exhibits the huge difference between rebuilding at Indiana and rebuilding at Iowa--the Hoosier state produces a heck of a lot more talent. Indiana will get back on the national map at some point, but it may not be until Crean's fifth or sixth season. That's a long process, but rebuilding from zero takes time. The first step is to stop fouling like maniacs.
Ok, commence back-patting. Ohio State and Wisconsin--we were in on these teams before most, but what have they done that you didn't expect?
Josh: Well, for starters, I did not expect the Big Ten to feature the #1 (Wisconsin) and #2 (Ohio State) offenses in the country. What's more, they're not really close to anyone else. The points per possession differential between Ohio State and the next highest team (Notre Dame) is roughly the difference between Notre Dame and the #12 team. What I did expect, however, is for these teams to retain their stripes. Wisconsin scores via turnover minimization, while Ohio State is just deadly from the field. Indeed, the Badgers had the lowest turnover percentage by a power conference team, well, maybe ever (I can only find numbers going back to 1996-97). Of course, the season isn't over, and the 2005-06 West Virginia Beileiners might still have something to say about that.
Record-breaking or not, this Wisconsin team is the ultimate example of a team that doesn't beat themselves. They hold onto the ball of course, but they also lead the country in free throw percentage. Also, in true Bo Ryan fashion, they crash the defensive glass (but rarely gamble for steals or blocks). Sure, it's a little throwback, but it's very effective. There's a reason your 7th grade basketball coach was trying to get everyone to made good passes, practice free throws, and rebound--it works. Of course, that's not to say there isn't talent on this Wisconsin team. I think both Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer are legitimate NBA prospects, and stand to make lots of dough from their ability to create shots without being reckless.
Nonetheless, no one would dare accuse Ohio State of lacking in talent. Thad's been recruiting at a high level for years now, so it's kind of ho-hum at this point, but for those that love the "eye test," the Buckeyes look like the best team in the country. In terms of individual, developed, talent, I'm not sure there's another team out there that comes close (Kansas? Maybe?). What's also nice is how well the pieces fit together. You have the big man in the middle, of course, and he's the engine that makes them go. But there's also a couple of deadeye shooters that punish teams for collapsing, a slasher that prevents opponents from closing out to hard, and a couple of great defensive players in Aaron Craft and Dallas Lauderdale. Everything just fits so well--they're like the Voltron of college basketball. And that's why they're going to show up as champs on a lot of office brackets.
Before I send it over to you for some final thoughts, I just want to comment a bit about the great untold story of this season's Big Ten. Obviously, the class of 2007 has been powering the league for 4 years now, and it'll stretch into five next season as the likes of Trevor Mbakwe finish out their careers. Certainly though, there's going to be a big dropoff. But there's also been a rebirth of sorts in the conference. Frankly, I can't remember a season with so many productive freshmen since, well, the class of 2007 landed. Obviously, Jared Sullinger is the main draw. But there's also Tim Hardaway, Jr., who would be the runaway Freshman of the Year in any other season. Guys like Melsahn Basabe, Victor Oladipo, and Jereme Richmond have also been very good in conference play. But this is a deep class too--DeShaun Thomas might be the best scorer of the bunch, Jordan Morgan is an extremely advanced big man, Aaron Craft is already one of the 5 best defenders in the Big Ten, and Josh Gasser was extremely efficient (albeit with a low shot diet). And there's more talent in the well, too. Keith Appling and Adreian Payne were highly-touted recruits, as was Illinois' Meyers Leonard and OSU's Jordan Sibert. Eventually, some of those guys will round into form as well.
So while, yes, the Big Ten will be worse next year than this season, it's only a temporary setback. The class of 2010 has ensured the conference will be strong for years to come.
OK, I'll send it over to you for some final thoughts, and to reveal the All-Geek Team.
Mike: Well said on the classes of 2007 and 2010. The conference will indeed see a dip next season, and, assuming Sullinger leaves for the NBA, the Big Ten race will be wide open. Most of the teams in the lower half of the conference return almost everyone (Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern), while the teams at the top will see a lot of turnover. It's obviously too early to know, but it's possible that next season's Big Ten won't have a single Final Four contender, so we should enjoy this month's NCAA Tournament runs while we can.
As far as the All-Geek Team, I think we're in complete agreement about the first four: Jordan Taylor, JaJuan Johnson, Jon Leuer, and Jared Sullinger. All of these guys used up lots of possessions in a very efficient manner for very good teams. The last spot is a little more up-for-grabs. From prior discussions we've had, I think this one comes down to scoring guards E'Twaun Moore and Talor Battle and rebounding monster Trevor Mbakwe. Who gets the honors and why?
Josh: You're certainly no Larry King, Mike. Well, I think you're right on the three finalists, so now I'll judge between them. As I wrote elsewhere, Trevor Mbakwe appears to be very good defensively, if not the best defensive player in the conference. Of course, I understand if there are skeptics out there. For one, the Gophers sported just the 5th best defense in the conference. Then there's also the fact that Stops does not punish a player for fouling. Indeed, it's really just about, well, stops. There's no real punishment for bad defense, just rewards for good defense. So there's definitely limitations. I'll come back to Mbakwe in a minute.
Between the two guards, I'd probably pick Moore. Offensively, the two were very close, with a slight edge to Battle. But Moore puts up the better defensive numbers on a better defensive team--it seems clear he's got the edge on defense.
So that leaves a battle between Moore and Mbakwe. Putting Stops aside for the moment, let's make the defensive case for Mbakwe. He led the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.3). You have to go back to 2001-02 to find a mark that high (Reggie Evans). And Evans just tied him--you have to go back to 1996-97 to find a higher percentage (posted by one of the original Flintstones, Antonio Smith). Mbakwe's rebounding isn't all he brings, either. He's also fifth in the league in block percentage. Mbakwe also grabs a healthy number of steals for a big man. And Stops certainly isn't a worthless stat, as it correlates with year-over-year gains and losses on the defensive end. Overall, I just see a huge edge for Mbakwe on defense, and his offense is certainly good enough for the 2nd team on its own.
So that's my pick, Trevor Mbakwe. I don't think one offensive rebound would ever be captured against the All Geek Team:
Jordan Taylor
JaJuan Johnson
Jared Sullinger
Jon Leuer
Trevor Mbakwe
Well, it's been a heck of a season, Mike, but still a lot of basketball left. See you in Indianapolis.