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Seven teams. This time last week, no such thought entered my mind. Did things break just right at the Big Ten Tournament for this to happen? You bet. But nonetheless, the conference is certainly good enough to get seven in, and they’re all good enough to be dancing. The lowest ranking by Pomeroy is Michigan State, sitting at 41. So bravo to the Big Ten, now let’s see if they can make some noise in the Dance.
Ohio State (#1 seed, East Region)
Technically, Ohio State’s first game is the winner of Texas San-Antonio/Alabama State. But the Buckeyes will win that game, easily, and nobody wants to read precisely why and how they will. I’m sure Thad Matta will say all the right things about not overlooking whoever their opponent is, but he’s going to overlook them. As he should.
So OSU’s first real test will be either George Mason or Villanova. I happen to think it will be George Mason, but the Wildcats could conceivably snap out of their funk as well. As Nova fans know all too well, the team started out at 16-1, with wins over Temple, UCLA, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Maryland. They finished the season on a 5-10 skid, with losses to Providence, Rutgers, and South Florida included. They also needed overtime to put away a woeful DePaul team. What people may not realize is that the slide of the Wildcats started a bit later than that. Up until late February, this was still the 2nd best team in the Big East by efficiency margin. Then the wheels fell off and the Wildcats were beat handily by the likes of St. John’s, Notre Dame, Pitt, and yes, South Florida. Why? Well, it was largely because of problems on the defensive side of the ball. Opponents made shots, didn’t turn it over, and consistently rebounded about 40 percent of their rare misses. Over the last 4 games of the season, VU’s opponents scored well over 1.1 points per possession. Obviously, a team that doesn’t defend is likely going to get their clocks cleaned by the Buckeyes. But before Nova can claim such an honor, they have to get by George Mason.
George Mason I suspect would be a popular Cinderella were it not for the fact that their path to Houston included a second-round matchup with the Buckeyes. Obviously, GMU is no stranger to deep tournament runs, and frankly, this year’s team looks a bit similar to the one that came 5 years prior. In 2006, the Patriots started out 7-4 before finishing the pre-Dance season on a 16-3 tear, which included a second round loss in the Colonial Tournament. This year, the team started out 10-5 and finished 16-1, with that one loss once again coming in the second round of the Colonial Tournament. But the similarities largely end there. That team was built on defense, this one is charged by offense. GMU is an excellent shooting team (over 40 percent on threes in conference play) that doesn’t turn the ball over and also gets to the line. It’s also worth noting that GMU beat up on the rest of the CAA like they were a John Calipari-coached Memphis in Conference USA. I must admit, teams like this always destroy my bracket. Although I’m well aware of their fine efficiencies, I nonetheless underrate them. My suspicion is that we’re not getting the full treatment from Larranaga’s boys in CAA play. The urge to unleash the beast drops after taking a 30-point lead in front of 1,500 people at Matthews Arena. But efficiency margins don’t account for that. Long story short, beware the Patriots, as there’s likely some gas-easing built in to their numbers. It would quite obviously be a massive upset for them to defeat Ohio State, but I suspect a real game will be had here.
Purdue (#3 seed, Southwest Region)
I think Purdue fans have a legitimate gripe about the number next to their school in the bracket, though for all practical purposes it seems that’s just a number. St. Peter’s is closer to a 15-seed than a 14, and Notre Dame looks to be the weakest 2-seed in the bracket. St. Peter’s upset the MAAC favorite Iona in the conference tournament final, though I don’t expect them to pose a real threat to the Boilers. The short take is that the defense is very good, and the offense is very bad.
In the second round, the Boilers could see any one of three teams (Georgetown, USC, and the controversial VCU). Losers of 5 of their last 6, the Hoyas have been perfectly ordinary in conference play, mostly due to their inability to win the turnover battle. They cough it up a lot on offense, but turnovers are rarely forced at the other end. Georgetown also shoots a lot of threes, but not particularly well. That’s going to dovetail nicely with Purdue’s overplay defense.
USC does three things very well--hold on to the basketball, defend threes, and rebound on defense. Everything else, they’re not so great at. Nicola Vucevic figures to be a real challenge for JaJuan Johnson if they meet up. The big man from Montenegro scores from all over the floor and he’s a powerhouse rebounder (though not much of a shot blocker). I imagine the Trojans will try and exploit his outside shooting ability to bring Johnson out of the lane, and thus open things up for others on the inside. Neither Vucevic nor Johnson foul very much, but if one of them does get into foul trouble, it could be decisive.
VCU plays a hectic brand of basketball that forces turnovers, but isn’t very good in the halfcourt. So long as Lewis Jackson plays like the mature guard he’s been in conference play, they shouldn’t be a problem. Jamie Skeen is another good-shooting big man that actually draws quite a few fouls, so Johnson may have to be careful there as well.
Wisconsin (#4 seed, Southeast Region)
It had to be Belmont. Over the past 4 seasons, the Badgers have been eliminated by a mid-major team in the Dance, and all but one of those occasions the opponent was the lower-seeded team. And Belmont just happens to be a lower-seeded mid-major, though it’s a sleeping giant. Maybe the Selection Committee has a sick sense of humor, or maybe this is what happens when your last impression to the seeding Gods is getting housed by Ohio State and following it up with 33 points against one of the poorer defenses in the Big Ten.
The matchup against Belmont consists largely of immovable objects and irresistible forces. The Bruins force tons of turnovers on defense, and crash the offensive glass on offense. Wisconsin is the best in the nation in terms of both taking care of the ball and defensive rebounding. Heck, Atlantic Sun opponents shot just 63 percent from the line against Belmont, while the Badgers drained over 85 percent of their free throws. On paper, Wisconsin should win this game, but only by a couple of points. And keep in mind, we have the same problem with Belmont that we had with George Mason: most of Belmont’s wins were blowouts, some by more than 40 points. Again, I suspect that we’re not getting 40 minutes of their “A game” in the latter stages of some of these laughers. So throw some salt onto what the paper says here. The truth is that this is an unfair first-round matchup for Wisconsin, and it’s certainly not the easiest game in which to remove the mid-major monkey from the Badgers’ collective back.
What’s more is that if the Badgers do advance past Belmont, they may end up facing the best mid-major team in the Dance in the form of Utah State (granting the Mountain West power conference status for this season, that is). The Aggies share some similarities with the Badgers in that they rebound well (especially at the defensive end, but they are capable offensive rebounders as well) and don’t look to force turnovers on defense. Containing Tai Wesley figures to be at the top of Bo Ryan’s list, as the bulky 6-7 senior shoots 60 percent on twos and lives at the free throw line. Offensively, UW will have a challenge making threes against the USU defense. Conference opponents were under 27 percent from downtown.
All of that assumes that Utah State gets past the surging Kansas State. All of that NIT boycott business now seems silly as the Wildcats earned a 5-seed. Obviously, Kansas State’s 6-game winning streak, which included wins over Texas and Kansas, played a big part in that. What changed? The biggest change was probably the shooting. Over that stretch, KSU shot 44 percent from 3 and just under 50 percent on twos. It’s also worth noting that the Wildcats made a concerted effort to get the ball inside over the win streak as well, as under 30 percent of their attempts came from three point range. Six games is a small sample, so maybe it’s a coincidence. Either way, Wisconsin should be prepared to defend the paint. But the good news is that the strengths of Kansas State--offensive rebounding and turnover forcing--are not easily conceded by the Badgers.
Michigan (#8 seed, West Region)
Michigan’s first game is an entirely winnable matchup with Tennessee. Though they accomplished plenty in the non-conference, the Volunteers were absolutely ordinary in a mediocre conference. Bruce Pearl’s team is adequate defensively, but they just can’t make shots. Scotty Hopson is the engine that makes them go. Stop him, and they can’t score.
If Michigan makes it past the Vols, they’ll be rewarded with the defending champs. Duke enters the Tournament with one fewer loss than they had last season, though there doesn’t seem to be a lot of chatter about the possibility of them repeating. The Blue Devils are certainly capable of doing just that, however. Nolan Smith has become a special player, one deserving of All-American status. Kyle Singler has been good if not great, and there are some other nice pieces like the Plumlee brothers and sharpshooter Seth Curry. It’s a typical Duke overplay defense--teams don’t like shooting threes against them, and the rotations are quick to draw charges. That makes for an interesting matchup with Michigan, of course, as the Wolverines really space teams out, so that help defense will have to move quickly. Of course, if Kyrie Irving plays, watch out.
Illinois (#9 seed, Southwest Region)
Throw out the numbers. The Committee put the Illini up against its two former coaches in the first two rounds. These games are not so much about UNLV’s turnover-forcing or Kansas’ dominant inside play as they are about Athletic Director Ron Guenther’s visit from the Ghost of Madness Past. Sure, I could tell you that the Illini have done well in recent years against pressing teams, and that although Illinois doesn’t usually get to the line a lot, UNLV does foul a ton. I could tell you that the Rebels struggle with outside shooting, and that the matchup between Demetri McCamey and Tre’Von Willis could be determinative. I could tell you that Illinois will have their hands full guarding the Winklevi of college basketball in the Morris twins. I could tell you that the Jayhawks have been playing long stretches without a point guard (because Josh Selby can’t shoot, and Elijah Johnson can’t defend), and because of that, KU is susceptible to ball pressure.
I could tell you all of those things, but I doubt any of this will be the primary reason why Illinois wins or loses these games. Put simply, Illinois, more than any other team in the Big Ten, has not played to their talent level this season. And at times, it’s certainly appeared that the team seemingly had better things to do than hold onto leads late in close games. All of that actually makes this draw quite favorable to Illinois. Because now there’s a reason for the team to care. Playing ex-coaches is a big deal to fans, it’s a big deal to the media, and I’m sure it’s a big deal to the coaches as well. It’s the basketball equivalent of running into an old girlfriend--you want to look like you’ve been doing really well. (Yes, that’s my BMW. My wife--did I mention she was a model?--she’s got one too. The extra legroom comes in handy when we’re taking those weekend drives up the coast to our summer home.) If that gives the Illini a reason to play to their potential, well, there’s no reason they can’t keep playing past the first weekend.
Penn State (#10 seed, West Region)
Temple is a tough 7-seed, but it could be worse. The Nittany Lions could be facing the best team in the Pac-10 as a 10 seed (good luck with that, Georgia). Instead, they’re merely facing the 2nd-best team in the Atlantic 10. This game might not last 90 minutes, as neither team likes stopping the action for fouls. The teams are also similar in that they do not turn the ball over very much. The teams do have significant differences however, one example being that Temple actually plays defense. Penn State, on the other hand, was the 9th-best defensive team in the Big Ten. This past weekend’s aberration notwithstanding, the Lions are likely going to have to win this game on offense. Penn State shoots two pointers rather well (largely thanks to Jeff Brooks, who is shooting 63 percent on 2s in Big Ten play), but Temple also defends the paint (opponents are shooting 43 percent on 2s on the year). Overall, this looks like a tough matchup for the Nittany Lions, once that may require some Talor Battle heroics. But he’s good at that stuff.
If they get by the Owls, Penn State will face San Diego State. The Aztecs are a legitimate 2-seed with a ferocious defense, one better than PSU has faced all season. SDSU doesn’t allow 2s, 3s, and they don’t foul. There’s also a lot of shotblocking ability on the Aztecs, especially from senior Malcolm Thomas. His matchup with Brooks figures to be a good one. But the Aztecs’ best player is Kawhi Leonard, a legitimate NBA lottery prospect and one of the best rebounders in the country. What scouts love about Leonard is how productive he is despite being so raw offensively. Indeed, he’s kind of a mediocre shooter at this point. Nonetheless, he’s an All-MWC performer. Certainly, Penn State did not get an easy draw.
Michigan State (#10 seed, Southeast Region)
Somehow, some way, Tom Izzo has his team dancing. It took three overtime wins in conference play, and a couple more Ws in Indianapolis, but they’re still one of the last 68 teams eligible to win the National Championship. They’ll face UCLA in the first round, the regular season Pac-10 champs. Color me confused on the seeding of Pac-10 teams. Washington was the best team per on-court reality, UCLA won the regular season title, and Arizona won the most Pac-10 games (by virtue of winning the conference tournament). Yet, the highest seed for any of those three was a 5-seed to ‘Zona. The Big Ten got 3 teams seeded higher than that. Six of the Big East’s teams were 5-seeds or better. Three for the Big XII. The ACC got a deserving 2, the same number as the Mountain West. The Committee figured that three teams in the SEC were better than or equal to the best of what the Pac-10 offered. Maybe it’s just me, but I just can’t believe that there’s 18 teams out there that are better than (or equal to) everyone in the Pac-10.
OK, rant over. UCLA is a fine defensive team, the best in the Pac-10 in fact, and Michigan State struggled to score all season. What’s worse is that the Bruins are especially good at defending the paint, the epicenter of MSU’s troubles. What’s more is that UCLA really gets out on shooters, thus driving most of the shots inside. Both frontlines are extremely physical, and UCLA’s Josh Smith may be the finest offensive rebounder in the country. Also, this game could get very sloppy, as both squads have turnover issues.
If they can get past the Bruins, it will likely be Florida awaiting the Spartans. The Gators have recovered nicely after a disappointing non-conference season, winning the regular season SEC title. Florida has a powerful offense that relies on the shotmaking abilities of Vernon Macklin and Chandler Parsons, both of whom shoot over 55 percent on two pointers. Offensively for Michigan State, this is a good matchup. The Gators really don’t disturb shots, especially on the interior. Though Florida is a good defensive rebounding team, Michigan State relies on offensive rebounding a bit less than Izzo’s teams normally do.
Everything kicks off on Thursday with Penn State vs. Temple, Wisconsin vs. Belmont, and Michigan State vs. UCLA. Finally, the Madness is here.
Ohio State (#1 seed, East Region)
Technically, Ohio State’s first game is the winner of Texas San-Antonio/Alabama State. But the Buckeyes will win that game, easily, and nobody wants to read precisely why and how they will. I’m sure Thad Matta will say all the right things about not overlooking whoever their opponent is, but he’s going to overlook them. As he should.
So OSU’s first real test will be either George Mason or Villanova. I happen to think it will be George Mason, but the Wildcats could conceivably snap out of their funk as well. As Nova fans know all too well, the team started out at 16-1, with wins over Temple, UCLA, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Maryland. They finished the season on a 5-10 skid, with losses to Providence, Rutgers, and South Florida included. They also needed overtime to put away a woeful DePaul team. What people may not realize is that the slide of the Wildcats started a bit later than that. Up until late February, this was still the 2nd best team in the Big East by efficiency margin. Then the wheels fell off and the Wildcats were beat handily by the likes of St. John’s, Notre Dame, Pitt, and yes, South Florida. Why? Well, it was largely because of problems on the defensive side of the ball. Opponents made shots, didn’t turn it over, and consistently rebounded about 40 percent of their rare misses. Over the last 4 games of the season, VU’s opponents scored well over 1.1 points per possession. Obviously, a team that doesn’t defend is likely going to get their clocks cleaned by the Buckeyes. But before Nova can claim such an honor, they have to get by George Mason.
George Mason I suspect would be a popular Cinderella were it not for the fact that their path to Houston included a second-round matchup with the Buckeyes. Obviously, GMU is no stranger to deep tournament runs, and frankly, this year’s team looks a bit similar to the one that came 5 years prior. In 2006, the Patriots started out 7-4 before finishing the pre-Dance season on a 16-3 tear, which included a second round loss in the Colonial Tournament. This year, the team started out 10-5 and finished 16-1, with that one loss once again coming in the second round of the Colonial Tournament. But the similarities largely end there. That team was built on defense, this one is charged by offense. GMU is an excellent shooting team (over 40 percent on threes in conference play) that doesn’t turn the ball over and also gets to the line. It’s also worth noting that GMU beat up on the rest of the CAA like they were a John Calipari-coached Memphis in Conference USA. I must admit, teams like this always destroy my bracket. Although I’m well aware of their fine efficiencies, I nonetheless underrate them. My suspicion is that we’re not getting the full treatment from Larranaga’s boys in CAA play. The urge to unleash the beast drops after taking a 30-point lead in front of 1,500 people at Matthews Arena. But efficiency margins don’t account for that. Long story short, beware the Patriots, as there’s likely some gas-easing built in to their numbers. It would quite obviously be a massive upset for them to defeat Ohio State, but I suspect a real game will be had here.
Purdue (#3 seed, Southwest Region)
I think Purdue fans have a legitimate gripe about the number next to their school in the bracket, though for all practical purposes it seems that’s just a number. St. Peter’s is closer to a 15-seed than a 14, and Notre Dame looks to be the weakest 2-seed in the bracket. St. Peter’s upset the MAAC favorite Iona in the conference tournament final, though I don’t expect them to pose a real threat to the Boilers. The short take is that the defense is very good, and the offense is very bad.
In the second round, the Boilers could see any one of three teams (Georgetown, USC, and the controversial VCU). Losers of 5 of their last 6, the Hoyas have been perfectly ordinary in conference play, mostly due to their inability to win the turnover battle. They cough it up a lot on offense, but turnovers are rarely forced at the other end. Georgetown also shoots a lot of threes, but not particularly well. That’s going to dovetail nicely with Purdue’s overplay defense.
USC does three things very well--hold on to the basketball, defend threes, and rebound on defense. Everything else, they’re not so great at. Nicola Vucevic figures to be a real challenge for JaJuan Johnson if they meet up. The big man from Montenegro scores from all over the floor and he’s a powerhouse rebounder (though not much of a shot blocker). I imagine the Trojans will try and exploit his outside shooting ability to bring Johnson out of the lane, and thus open things up for others on the inside. Neither Vucevic nor Johnson foul very much, but if one of them does get into foul trouble, it could be decisive.
VCU plays a hectic brand of basketball that forces turnovers, but isn’t very good in the halfcourt. So long as Lewis Jackson plays like the mature guard he’s been in conference play, they shouldn’t be a problem. Jamie Skeen is another good-shooting big man that actually draws quite a few fouls, so Johnson may have to be careful there as well.
Wisconsin (#4 seed, Southeast Region)
It had to be Belmont. Over the past 4 seasons, the Badgers have been eliminated by a mid-major team in the Dance, and all but one of those occasions the opponent was the lower-seeded team. And Belmont just happens to be a lower-seeded mid-major, though it’s a sleeping giant. Maybe the Selection Committee has a sick sense of humor, or maybe this is what happens when your last impression to the seeding Gods is getting housed by Ohio State and following it up with 33 points against one of the poorer defenses in the Big Ten.
The matchup against Belmont consists largely of immovable objects and irresistible forces. The Bruins force tons of turnovers on defense, and crash the offensive glass on offense. Wisconsin is the best in the nation in terms of both taking care of the ball and defensive rebounding. Heck, Atlantic Sun opponents shot just 63 percent from the line against Belmont, while the Badgers drained over 85 percent of their free throws. On paper, Wisconsin should win this game, but only by a couple of points. And keep in mind, we have the same problem with Belmont that we had with George Mason: most of Belmont’s wins were blowouts, some by more than 40 points. Again, I suspect that we’re not getting 40 minutes of their “A game” in the latter stages of some of these laughers. So throw some salt onto what the paper says here. The truth is that this is an unfair first-round matchup for Wisconsin, and it’s certainly not the easiest game in which to remove the mid-major monkey from the Badgers’ collective back.
What’s more is that if the Badgers do advance past Belmont, they may end up facing the best mid-major team in the Dance in the form of Utah State (granting the Mountain West power conference status for this season, that is). The Aggies share some similarities with the Badgers in that they rebound well (especially at the defensive end, but they are capable offensive rebounders as well) and don’t look to force turnovers on defense. Containing Tai Wesley figures to be at the top of Bo Ryan’s list, as the bulky 6-7 senior shoots 60 percent on twos and lives at the free throw line. Offensively, UW will have a challenge making threes against the USU defense. Conference opponents were under 27 percent from downtown.
All of that assumes that Utah State gets past the surging Kansas State. All of that NIT boycott business now seems silly as the Wildcats earned a 5-seed. Obviously, Kansas State’s 6-game winning streak, which included wins over Texas and Kansas, played a big part in that. What changed? The biggest change was probably the shooting. Over that stretch, KSU shot 44 percent from 3 and just under 50 percent on twos. It’s also worth noting that the Wildcats made a concerted effort to get the ball inside over the win streak as well, as under 30 percent of their attempts came from three point range. Six games is a small sample, so maybe it’s a coincidence. Either way, Wisconsin should be prepared to defend the paint. But the good news is that the strengths of Kansas State--offensive rebounding and turnover forcing--are not easily conceded by the Badgers.
Michigan (#8 seed, West Region)
Michigan’s first game is an entirely winnable matchup with Tennessee. Though they accomplished plenty in the non-conference, the Volunteers were absolutely ordinary in a mediocre conference. Bruce Pearl’s team is adequate defensively, but they just can’t make shots. Scotty Hopson is the engine that makes them go. Stop him, and they can’t score.
If Michigan makes it past the Vols, they’ll be rewarded with the defending champs. Duke enters the Tournament with one fewer loss than they had last season, though there doesn’t seem to be a lot of chatter about the possibility of them repeating. The Blue Devils are certainly capable of doing just that, however. Nolan Smith has become a special player, one deserving of All-American status. Kyle Singler has been good if not great, and there are some other nice pieces like the Plumlee brothers and sharpshooter Seth Curry. It’s a typical Duke overplay defense--teams don’t like shooting threes against them, and the rotations are quick to draw charges. That makes for an interesting matchup with Michigan, of course, as the Wolverines really space teams out, so that help defense will have to move quickly. Of course, if Kyrie Irving plays, watch out.
Illinois (#9 seed, Southwest Region)
Throw out the numbers. The Committee put the Illini up against its two former coaches in the first two rounds. These games are not so much about UNLV’s turnover-forcing or Kansas’ dominant inside play as they are about Athletic Director Ron Guenther’s visit from the Ghost of Madness Past. Sure, I could tell you that the Illini have done well in recent years against pressing teams, and that although Illinois doesn’t usually get to the line a lot, UNLV does foul a ton. I could tell you that the Rebels struggle with outside shooting, and that the matchup between Demetri McCamey and Tre’Von Willis could be determinative. I could tell you that Illinois will have their hands full guarding the Winklevi of college basketball in the Morris twins. I could tell you that the Jayhawks have been playing long stretches without a point guard (because Josh Selby can’t shoot, and Elijah Johnson can’t defend), and because of that, KU is susceptible to ball pressure.
I could tell you all of those things, but I doubt any of this will be the primary reason why Illinois wins or loses these games. Put simply, Illinois, more than any other team in the Big Ten, has not played to their talent level this season. And at times, it’s certainly appeared that the team seemingly had better things to do than hold onto leads late in close games. All of that actually makes this draw quite favorable to Illinois. Because now there’s a reason for the team to care. Playing ex-coaches is a big deal to fans, it’s a big deal to the media, and I’m sure it’s a big deal to the coaches as well. It’s the basketball equivalent of running into an old girlfriend--you want to look like you’ve been doing really well. (Yes, that’s my BMW. My wife--did I mention she was a model?--she’s got one too. The extra legroom comes in handy when we’re taking those weekend drives up the coast to our summer home.) If that gives the Illini a reason to play to their potential, well, there’s no reason they can’t keep playing past the first weekend.
Penn State (#10 seed, West Region)
Temple is a tough 7-seed, but it could be worse. The Nittany Lions could be facing the best team in the Pac-10 as a 10 seed (good luck with that, Georgia). Instead, they’re merely facing the 2nd-best team in the Atlantic 10. This game might not last 90 minutes, as neither team likes stopping the action for fouls. The teams are also similar in that they do not turn the ball over very much. The teams do have significant differences however, one example being that Temple actually plays defense. Penn State, on the other hand, was the 9th-best defensive team in the Big Ten. This past weekend’s aberration notwithstanding, the Lions are likely going to have to win this game on offense. Penn State shoots two pointers rather well (largely thanks to Jeff Brooks, who is shooting 63 percent on 2s in Big Ten play), but Temple also defends the paint (opponents are shooting 43 percent on 2s on the year). Overall, this looks like a tough matchup for the Nittany Lions, once that may require some Talor Battle heroics. But he’s good at that stuff.
If they get by the Owls, Penn State will face San Diego State. The Aztecs are a legitimate 2-seed with a ferocious defense, one better than PSU has faced all season. SDSU doesn’t allow 2s, 3s, and they don’t foul. There’s also a lot of shotblocking ability on the Aztecs, especially from senior Malcolm Thomas. His matchup with Brooks figures to be a good one. But the Aztecs’ best player is Kawhi Leonard, a legitimate NBA lottery prospect and one of the best rebounders in the country. What scouts love about Leonard is how productive he is despite being so raw offensively. Indeed, he’s kind of a mediocre shooter at this point. Nonetheless, he’s an All-MWC performer. Certainly, Penn State did not get an easy draw.
Michigan State (#10 seed, Southeast Region)
Somehow, some way, Tom Izzo has his team dancing. It took three overtime wins in conference play, and a couple more Ws in Indianapolis, but they’re still one of the last 68 teams eligible to win the National Championship. They’ll face UCLA in the first round, the regular season Pac-10 champs. Color me confused on the seeding of Pac-10 teams. Washington was the best team per on-court reality, UCLA won the regular season title, and Arizona won the most Pac-10 games (by virtue of winning the conference tournament). Yet, the highest seed for any of those three was a 5-seed to ‘Zona. The Big Ten got 3 teams seeded higher than that. Six of the Big East’s teams were 5-seeds or better. Three for the Big XII. The ACC got a deserving 2, the same number as the Mountain West. The Committee figured that three teams in the SEC were better than or equal to the best of what the Pac-10 offered. Maybe it’s just me, but I just can’t believe that there’s 18 teams out there that are better than (or equal to) everyone in the Pac-10.
OK, rant over. UCLA is a fine defensive team, the best in the Pac-10 in fact, and Michigan State struggled to score all season. What’s worse is that the Bruins are especially good at defending the paint, the epicenter of MSU’s troubles. What’s more is that UCLA really gets out on shooters, thus driving most of the shots inside. Both frontlines are extremely physical, and UCLA’s Josh Smith may be the finest offensive rebounder in the country. Also, this game could get very sloppy, as both squads have turnover issues.
If they can get past the Bruins, it will likely be Florida awaiting the Spartans. The Gators have recovered nicely after a disappointing non-conference season, winning the regular season SEC title. Florida has a powerful offense that relies on the shotmaking abilities of Vernon Macklin and Chandler Parsons, both of whom shoot over 55 percent on two pointers. Offensively for Michigan State, this is a good matchup. The Gators really don’t disturb shots, especially on the interior. Though Florida is a good defensive rebounding team, Michigan State relies on offensive rebounding a bit less than Izzo’s teams normally do.
Everything kicks off on Thursday with Penn State vs. Temple, Wisconsin vs. Belmont, and Michigan State vs. UCLA. Finally, the Madness is here.