|
|
Sunday, March 27, 2011, 7:57 PM
Brandon Knight’s 15-foot jumper ended Ohio State’s season in a 62-60 loss to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. The Buckeyes ran into the same problem that led to Wisconsin’s defeat on Thursday, which is an inability to make shots--both contested and uncontested shots. Most shocking was that OSU was just 31 percent inside the arc. But give credit to Kentucky, which features one of the finest interior defenses in the country, allowing opponents to make just 42 percent of their two point attempts. It was an especially frustrating night for William Buford, who was just 2 of 16 from the field. The Buckeyes were led by Jared Sullinger’s 21 points. I’m writing this just after Virginia Commonwealth punched its ticket to the Final Four, joining Butler and UConn. This leads to the inescapable conclusion that basketball is just nuts this season (keep in mind, the Hukies were a #9 seed in their own conference tournament). Sure, more was expected from Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament after the team emerged as the Big Ten’s best team (which was arguably the best conference in Division I). But that’s March for you. If you replayed this year’s bracket a few hundred times, I’m sure that at least one 1-seed would make it to Houston. In a single elimination tournament format, there’s no guarantee that the best team wins the championship. But that’s a fact of every sport. The great part about college basketball is that everyone has a chance. All you need is something like a 10-game winning streak to finish the season. All of this is to say that although the finish was disappointing, you cannot say that Ohio State underachieved or somehow did not play up to its potential this season simply because the team went ice cold at an inopportune time. It was a great year for Ohio State, and Thad Matta’s team should be proud, even if the school wished to raise another banner. As for next year, it’s TBD at this point. Specifically, the futures of Jared Sullinger and William Buford need to be sorted out before anyone can provide an educated guess as to how good the team figures to be next season. Right now, Sullinger says he’s coming back. Ditto Buford. I have no reason to believe these young men are anything less than completely forthcoming, but it’s a good idea to take NBA draft-related declarations in March with a grain of salt. Ohio State fans know this all too well after hearing similar promises from Mike Conley Jr. shortly after his season ended in the National Championship game. And I don’t blame anyone for changing their mind, in either direction. This is not a decision one takes lightly. But let’s play “what if.” It probably goes without saying that if Both Buford and Sullinger return, that Ohio State is your preseason #1 team and the heavy favorite to win the Big Ten next season. If only one of those players returns, the Buckeyes are probably something like a top 10 team, and again almost surely the best team in the Big Ten. If neither come back, however, not all hope is lost. DeShaun Thomas appears to be a fantastic breakout candidate this season, and Matta welcomes yet another monster recruiting class (though I’m not sure there are any Jared Sullingers in this class). There are also talents like Jordan Sibert and Lenzelle Smith that were buried on the bench behind OSU’s talented wings. The only question is whether the defense could keep rolling. Bottom line, even without Sullinger and Buford, this team should still be dancing next season. It’s not often you can say that about a team that loses five starters. That wraps up another season of Big Ten Geeks, perhaps the most entertaining one yet. While we expected the conference to be good, it was nonetheless surprising. Both Michigan and Penn State refused to endure a rebuilding season, while Purdue refused to cry over torn ACLs. Michigan State and Illinois provided plenty of stress for fans and gray hairs for Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber. And Ohio State and Wisconsin entertained with the best and second-best offenses in the country on a per possession basis.We hope to be back next year, and hopefully you’ll join us then. In the meantime, you can follow us on Twitter. See you in November.
Friday, March 25, 2011, 10:36 AM
And it happened again. For the fifth straight season, Wisconsin was bounced from the NCAA Tournament by a mid-major team. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs that escorted the Badgers out of the Dance by a score of 61-54 in a 63 possession game. It’s no secret that Wisconsin relies on jumpshots. This isn’t a bad thing, mind you, as the offense has never been better in Madison. Indeed, even in light of last night’s 0.86 points per possession output, this was still the second-best offense in the country. But apparently there are some nights when the shots just do not fall. Twice this season Wisconsin has posted an effective field goal percentage under 40.0. The first time was when the team scored 33 points against Penn State in the slowest game between Division I foes in some 13 years. The second time was last night. Other than that, you can’t say that Wisconsin played that poorly. The defense held Butler to under a point per possession. And before you say “well sure, but they’re just Butler,” keep in mind that this is not something that’s happened to the Bulldogs since February 3rd. In fact, every time Butler was held to under a point per trip this season, they lost. Until last night. In addition to taking a plethora of jumpshots, the Wisconsin offense is predicated on taking more shots than the other teams. Frankly, mission accomplished, as UW attempted 11 more shots than the Bulldogs. But that matters little when the team shoots 37 percent on twos and 24 percent on threes. And while a lot of credit should be thrown in the general direction of Brad Stevens, you simply cannot shoot this poorly without missing some wide open looks. Wisconsin missed plenty of open shots last night, and they paid for that. Speaking of this Stevens fellow, I continue to be amazed at what he’s put together. It’s one thing for a mid-major team to catch fire in March, and blast all the way to a Final Four. We’ve seen that a couple of times now. But for that same team to do it twice in a row (Florida being the only remaining roadblock), after losing two starters (including its best player), well, the architect of such an accomplishment is worthy of all the praise he receives. This offseason, I expect to see plenty of Athletic Directors waving blank checks in front of Stevens. If the coach takes any of them up on that offer--watch out, Conference Opponents of Team That Hired Brad Stevens. But back to Wisconsin. Certainly, it’s a bummer for this team to exit the Tournament, but at least this season the Badgers did not bow out at a woefully premature stage. This team was good enough for the Final Four, but not so good that anything short of that would be an underachievement. And that’s been occurring far too often in recent seasons. Assuming Jordan Taylor comes back, there’s no reason this team can’t compete for another Big Ten title next year. Mike Bruesewitz figures to help fill in the very big shoes of Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil, and I expect he’ll see some help from Jared Berggren in doing so. So I won’t count Wisconsin out next season, and anyone who does so does so at their own peril (they will, of course). It’s the season after next season that concerns me, however. But that’s a long way out. What will probably happen--as is the custom for Bo Ryan’s teams--is that someone will rip off their redshirt and reveal a superstar in the making. In the unusual event that does not happen, however, then there is a real window here, and it’s closing.
Sunday, March 20, 2011, 10:13 PM
Jordan Taylor didn’t have a great game, but he had a great final two minutes. The Big Ten Geek Player of the Year was an awful 2-16 from the field, and was severely outplayed by his counterpart, Jacob Pullen (who lit up the Badgers for 38 points). But in crunch time, Taylor made his presence felt, with a key steal that led to a Mike Bruesewitz three pointer, and then later blocked Pullen’s three point attempt that would have tied the game with seconds on the clock. The end result was a 70-65 win for Wisconsin, who advances to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008. And the good news is that they won’t have to guard Stephen Curry. This game was a physical affair, as both Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil were bloodied in the opening minutes of the game. Indeed, it was rough going for the Badgers in the paint, as they converted just forty percent of their two point attempts. But the offense was nonetheless efficient, thanks to the typical combination of great ballhandling (a turnover rate of just 9 percent) and hot outside shooting (45 percent on threes). Leuer led the way with 19 points on 12 shots. It was over before it began in Ohio State’s 98-66 win over George Mason. The Buckeyes scored 1.48 points per possession, thanks largely to its outstanding shooting performance. Thad Matta’s team was 61 percent from two point range and 62 percent from downtown, all good for a 74.7 effective field goal percentage. OSU also turned it over on less than 15 percent of their possessions, and rebounded over 40 percent of their rare misses. In short, it was domination. Ohio State is playing its best basketball of these season, right now. David Lighty led the way with 25 points on a mere 10 shots, and he was a perfect 7 for 7 from three point range. Illinois ended their season in an emblematic loss--where the team shows they belong for about 35 minutes, and then crumbles down the stretch. Kansas’ Morris twins were just too much for the Illini, combining for 41 points and 25 rebounds in a 73-59 Jayhawk victory. Illinois got a nice boost from Mike Davis, who finished with a 17 point, 7 rebound line in his final game as an Illini. Despite the fact they shot poorly in this game, Bruce Weber’s team forced Kansas into a surprising number of turnovers. It’s a shame that Illinois had to play a 1-seed in the round of 32, as this is a better team than your typical 8-seed. But this team brought it on itself. All season long, the Illini blew leads, and failed to convert late in games. Even so, this looked like a team that should have been a bit better than their +0.05 efficiency margin. The offense bears most of the blame, as the Illini once again attempted too many jumpers that counted for only two points. Going forward, the offense will look different. The main offenders of the mid-range jump shot were Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Demetri McCamey. But it’s hard to see this team being better next season. Obviously, a lot of seniors are walking out the door, and though Bruce Weber welcomes a very good recruiting class, it’s not a class that anyone would mistake for the Fab Five in terms of “instant impact.” Illinois figures to have the most problems in the frontcourt, as the only viable alternative to the Mikes this season was freshman Jereme Richmond--and his status appears to be up in the air for the moment. That’s really the most disappointing part about this season: it was supposed to be a peak of sorts, and instead it was a plateau. The Illini still have a lot of talent going forward, it’s just very young at the moment. In a couple of years, this could be a dominant team once again. That is, so long as the next generation does not settle so much for mid-range jumpers. And so now we’re down to two teams. That’s somewhat disappointing given how well the conference was on the season, but Ohio State and probably Wisconsin both look like the favorites to win their regions now. Certainly, two Final Four berths will go a long way in solidifying the conference’s reputation. Besides, no conference has more than two teams still dancing. It’s a pretty level field out there.
Saturday, March 19, 2011, 12:52 PM
Illinois was fairly even with first round opponent UNLV to start off the game. After the Rebels took an early 9-8 lead, however, it was all Illini as Bruce Weber's team cruised to a 73-62 victory. Frankly, the game was not as close as the score, as Illinois had around a 20-point cushion for most of the game. The turnovers played out as expected, with UNLV forcing a lot of them, while Illinois failed to do the same. But when you shoot 62 percent on twos and 54 percent on threes, while holding the opponent to 47 percent and 29 percent, the turnover battle just isn't as important. The Illini also limited UNLV's second chances, grabbing 79 percent of the available defensive rebounds. Mike Davis was especially impressive with 22 points (13 shots), 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. Illinois' reward is a second round matchup against former Illinois coach Bill Self and the #1 seed Kansas Jayhawks.
Ohio State opened up Tournament play against #16th seed UT-San Antonio. I could probably just stop right there, and you could guess the outcome. The Buckeyes dominated the shooting, dominated the glass, and dispatched of UTSA like they were Billy Madison in a game of 4th-grade dodgeball. The final margin was 75-46, and William Buford led the team with 18 points to go with 5 assists and 6 rebounds. Ohio State continues its march to Houston with a second round matchup against George Mason.
Thursday, March 17, 2011, 9:58 PM
Wisconsin was unusually sloppy with the ball in their 72-58 win over Belmont, but that tends not to matter when you shoot frequent three pointers at a 55 percent clip. Belmont’s pressure defense led to a Wisconsin turnover on over twenty percent of their possessions, something the Bruins have been doing to teams all season. In fact, Wisconsin posted their third-highest turnover rate of the season in this game. But hot shooting can cure all ills, and Belmont had no answer for the Badgers’ never-ending storm of three pointers. Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer were especially hot, combining for 43 points on 25 shots. Wisconsin will play the winner of Utah State and Kansas State, and right now it looks like it will be the Wildcats. If that’s the opponent, look for a big time battle on the boards (specifically, while Kansas State is on offense).
|
|