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The End

Sun, 27 Mar 2011 19:57:10 -0500

Brandon Knight’s 15-foot jumper ended Ohio State’s season in a 62-60 loss to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. The Buckeyes ran into the same problem that led to Wisconsin’s defeat on Thursday, which is an inability to make shots--both contested and uncontested shots. Most shocking was that OSU was just 31 percent inside the arc. But give credit to Kentucky, which features one of the finest interior defenses in the country, allowing opponents to make just 42 percent of their two point attempts. It was an especially frustrating night for William Buford, who was just 2 of 16 from the field. The Buckeyes were led by Jared Sullinger’s 21 points.

I’m writing this just after Virginia Commonwealth punched its ticket to the Final Four, joining Butler and UConn. This leads to the inescapable conclusion that basketball is just nuts this season (keep in mind, the Hukies were a #9 seed in their own conference tournament). Sure, more was expected from Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament after the team emerged as the Big Ten’s best team (which was arguably the best conference in Division I). But that’s March for you. If you replayed this year’s bracket a few hundred times, I’m sure that at least one 1-seed would make it to Houston. In a single elimination tournament format, there’s no guarantee that the best team wins the championship. But that’s a fact of every sport. The great part about college basketball is that everyone has a chance. All you need is something like a 10-game winning streak to finish the season.

All of this is to say that although the finish was disappointing, you cannot say that Ohio State underachieved or somehow did not play up to its potential this season simply because the team went ice cold at an inopportune time. It was a great year for Ohio State, and Thad Matta’s team should be proud, even if the school wished to raise another banner.

As for next year, it’s TBD at this point. Specifically, the futures of Jared Sullinger and William Buford need to be sorted out before anyone can provide an educated guess as to how good the team figures to be next season. Right now, Sullinger says he’s coming back. Ditto Buford. I have no reason to believe these young men are anything less than completely forthcoming, but it’s a good idea to take NBA draft-related declarations in March with a grain of salt. Ohio State fans know this all too well after hearing similar promises from Mike Conley Jr. shortly after his season ended in the National Championship game. And I don’t blame anyone for changing their mind, in either direction. This is not a decision one takes lightly.

But let’s play “what if.” It probably goes without saying that if Both Buford and Sullinger return, that Ohio State is your preseason #1 team and the heavy favorite to win the Big Ten next season. If only one of those players returns, the Buckeyes are probably something like a top 10 team, and again almost surely the best team in the Big Ten. If neither come back, however, not all hope is lost. DeShaun Thomas appears to be a fantastic breakout candidate this season, and Matta welcomes yet another monster recruiting class (though I’m not sure there are any Jared Sullingers in this class). There are also talents like Jordan Sibert and Lenzelle Smith that were buried on the bench behind OSU’s talented wings. The only question is whether the defense could keep rolling. Bottom line, even without Sullinger and Buford, this team should still be dancing next season. It’s not often you can say that about a team that loses five starters.

That wraps up another season of Big Ten Geeks, perhaps the most entertaining one yet. While we expected the conference to be good, it was nonetheless surprising. Both Michigan and Penn State refused to endure a rebuilding season, while Purdue refused to cry over torn ACLs. Michigan State and Illinois provided plenty of stress for fans and gray hairs for Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber. And Ohio State and Wisconsin entertained with the best and second-best offenses in the country on a per possession basis.

We hope to be back next year, and hopefully you’ll join us then. In the meantime, you can follow us on Twitter. See you in November.

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Badger Blues

Fri, 25 Mar 2011 10:36:36 -0500

And it happened again. For the fifth straight season, Wisconsin was bounced from the NCAA Tournament by a mid-major team. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs that escorted the Badgers out of the Dance by a score of 61-54 in a 63 possession game. It’s no secret that Wisconsin relies on jumpshots. This isn’t a bad thing, mind you, as the offense has never been better in Madison. Indeed, even in light of last night’s 0.86 points per possession output, this was still the second-best offense in the country. But apparently there are some nights when the shots just do not fall. Twice this season Wisconsin has posted an effective field goal percentage under 40.0. The first time was when the team scored 33 points against Penn State in the slowest game between Division I foes in some 13 years. The second time was last night.

Other than that, you can’t say that Wisconsin played that poorly. The defense held Butler to under a point per possession. And before you say “well sure, but they’re just Butler,” keep in mind that this is not something that’s happened to the Bulldogs since February 3rd. In fact, every time Butler was held to under a point per trip this season, they lost. Until last night.

In addition to taking a plethora of jumpshots, the Wisconsin offense is predicated on taking more shots than the other teams. Frankly, mission accomplished, as UW attempted 11 more shots than the Bulldogs. But that matters little when the team shoots 37 percent on twos and 24 percent on threes. And while a lot of credit should be thrown in the general direction of Brad Stevens, you simply cannot shoot this poorly without missing some wide open looks. Wisconsin missed plenty of open shots last night, and they paid for that.

Speaking of this Stevens fellow, I continue to be amazed at what he’s put together. It’s one thing for a mid-major team to catch fire in March, and blast all the way to a Final Four. We’ve seen that a couple of times now. But for that same team to do it twice in a row (Florida being the only remaining roadblock), after losing two starters (including its best player), well, the architect of such an accomplishment is worthy of all the praise he receives. This offseason, I expect to see plenty of Athletic Directors waving blank checks in front of Stevens. If the coach takes any of them up on that offer--watch out, Conference Opponents of Team That Hired Brad Stevens.

But back to Wisconsin. Certainly, it’s a bummer for this team to exit the Tournament, but at least this season the Badgers did not bow out at a woefully premature stage. This team was good enough for the Final Four, but not so good that anything short of that would be an underachievement. And that’s been occurring far too often in recent seasons. Assuming Jordan Taylor comes back, there’s no reason this team can’t compete for another Big Ten title next year. Mike Bruesewitz figures to help fill in the very big shoes of Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil, and I expect he’ll see some help from Jared Berggren in doing so. So I won’t count Wisconsin out next season, and anyone who does so does so at their own peril (they will, of course). It’s the season after next season that concerns me, however. But that’s a long way out. What will probably happen--as is the custom for Bo Ryan’s teams--is that someone will rip off their redshirt and reveal a superstar in the making. In the unusual event that does not happen, however, then there is a real window here, and it’s closing.

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Catching up with the Cats

Tue, 22 Mar 2011 10:45:22 -0500

It's happened understandably under the radar, but Northwestern has put together a couple nice wins so far in the NIT. First, in a rare postseason home game, the Wildcats used some surprising tactics--namely, offensive rebounding and solid defense--to outlast Wisconsin Milwaukee by a 70-61 score. Despite a big size advantage, Northwestern shot just 42 percent on twos, but they compensated by retrieving 45 percent of their misses and making a third of their numerous three point attempts. The result was a solid 1.15 points per possession.

At the other end, the Panthers shot well but couldn't hold onto the ball. Their 26 percent turnover rate was the fifth highest forced by Northwestern all season, and it kept Milwaukee from getting above a point per trip.

John Shurna and Michael Thompson combined for 45 points on 31 shots. Luka Mirkovic finished with 4 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and no turnovers.

The second round figured to present a much greater challenge, as the Wildcats travelled to Chestnut Hill to face former bubble team Boston College. This was a matchup of teams with great offenses and bad defenses, with a bit of an Ivy League style thrown in. Northwestern exploded from the field for an 85-67 win that spanned 62 possessions. The Wildcats shot 73 percent on twos and 42 percent on threes, resulting in a 66.9 effective field goal percentage that matched their second best shooting game of the season. Their best shooting game? The home matchup against Georgia Tech. Northwestern needs to lobby to join the ACC.

The Wildcats scored 1.37 points per trip, a lofty output that Boston College had only allowed to one team all season (North Carolina). Northwestern's defense wasn't anything special, but it usually won't matter if you're scoring like that.

Thompson and Shurna combined for 42 points (32 shots), 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and just three turnovers. Mirkovic had another fantastic game with 13 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and no turnovers. This guy is making up for lost time after missing last season's NIT loss.

Northwestern moves on to the NIT quarterfinals with a late road game at Washington State (10pm CT Wednesday, ESPN2). The Cougars have been on quite the offensive roll lately, scoring 1.07 ppp or more in five of their last six games, so this could be another high-scoring affair. Junior guards Klay Thompson and Faisal Aden each take a third of their team's shots when on the floor, so stopping those two guys has to be the main concern. With Aden, that isn't so daunting--he posted a 39.9 eFG percentage in Pac 10 play--but Thompson is a legitimate scorer, especially from three. It's a battle of the Thompsons, Klay vs. Juice, with a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line.

- Posted by Mike Portscheller

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Purdue peters out

Mon, 21 Mar 2011 16:51:03 -0500

Purdue's NCAA Tournament started out well enough with a 65-43 win over an outmatched St. Peter's squad. As could have been expected, the Pea**** struggled mightily at the offensive end, shooting 32 percent on twos and 24 percent on threes. The resulting 0.65 efficiency was among the lowest allowed by Purdue all season.

Still, even in this blowout win, things just didn't feel quite right for the Boilermakers. Purdue struggled a bit against St. Peter's solid defense, posting their second highest turnover rate of the season (24 percent). The Boilermakers didn't shoot all that well either (46 percent on twos, 33 percent on threes), resulting in a pedestrian 0.99 points per possession. Sure, St. Peter's has defended very well this season, but that's still a low output. For reference, note that St. Peter's has allowed a higher efficiency to teams like Fairfield, Rider, Lehigh, Long Beach State, Loyola (MD)... this wasn't a good offensive performance for the Boilermakers by any measure.

With that said, I don't think anyone foresaw what would happen next. In the Round of 32, Purdue got absolutely destroyed by Virginia Commonwealth, 94-76. The Boilermaker offense actually did alright in this one, scoring 1.16 points per trip thanks to a low turnover rate, but Purdue simply couldn't stop the Rams. VCU used dribble penetration to open up Purdue's overplaying defense, and the result was 66 percent shooting on twos and 38 percent shooting on threes. To make matters worse, VCU turned it over on just 6 percent of their possessions. The Rams scored 1.43 points per trip, a total that just blows away anything anybody did against Purdue all season. Even the spanking at Ohio State wasn't this bad.

It's hard to pinpoint why this happened. Maybe this smaller VCU squad was just a bad matchup for this Purdue team. Maybe the Rams are red-hot and playing with a chip on their shoulder. Maybe Kelsey Barlow is the greatest defender ever known to man. Whatever the reason, Purdue's season, and the collegiate careers of E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, came to a disappointing and unceremonious close. For all the great play they provided in West Lafayette, these seniors would never take their team further than the Sweet Sixteen.

Still, despite the Tournament flameout, this was quite the season for the Boilermakers. They proved a lot of people wrong, including us, in the way they compensated for the loss of Robbie Hummel. Moore and Johnson both made big leaps from their previous standards, and the supporting cast did a much better job than expected. Of the Big Ten teams that finished conference play with a positive efficiency margin, the Boilermakers will return the most minutes next season. If Hummel comes back fully healthy, the Boilermakers figure to be in the Big Ten title discussion again. That may be little solace to Purdue fans that were looking for more from this Tournament.

- Posted by Mike Portscheller

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Wolverine weekend

Mon, 21 Mar 2011 16:26:36 -0500

It started out competitively enough. Michigan and Tennessee played most of the first half like a typical 8/9 matchup, with neither team getting larger than a six point lead. That’s the advantage Tennessee held with seven minutes left in the first half--to that point, the Wolverines had clanked their way to a 35.4 effective field goal percentage and had struggled to stop Tennessee freshman Tobias Harris inside. Jordan Morgan and Tim Hardaway Jr. had two fouls apiece. John Beilein could have been forgiven for being a bit worried.

From there, however, things got a lot more fun for Michigan. The Wolverines hit seven of their next 12 shots, including two threes, to take a four point lead into halftime. It was a nice run, keyed by Matt Vogrich, but this was still anybody’s game.

After the break, Michigan exploded. The Wolverines opened the second half on a 19-2 run and kept their feet on the gas the rest of the way for a 75-45 trouncing. In the second half, Michigan shot 71 percent on twos and 55 percent on threes, driving them to a 1.36 efficiency without the benefit of a free throw. This was Beilein Ball at its finest.

Perhaps more impressive was the defensive effort after the break. In catchup mode, Tennessee was relegated to hoisting shot after shot from deep, and they made just 14 percent of them. More importantly, Michigan forced turnovers on nearly a third of Tennessee’s second half possessions. It was just an unreal performance, and the Volunteers were held to 0.52 points per trip in the second half. For the full game, Tennessee was held to a 0.71 efficiency, easily their lowest output of the season. The Volunteers faced a long list of good defenses this season--Pitt, Connecticut, Belmont, USC, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky--and none of them stopped Tennessee as well as Michigan just did. These Wolverines have proven their defensive prowess down the stretch in a big way.

Seven Wolverines scored at least eight points apiece, led by Zack Novak’s 14-10 double-double. Darius Morris posted 8 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists, while Stu Douglass put up 11 points, 5 assists, and just 1 turnover.

As their reward, the Wolverines moved onto to Sunday's matchup with the Duke Blue Devils. Michigan hung right with the defending national champions for the entire first half, using the standard Beilein Ball formula (low turnovers, lots of threes) to score 1.10 points per possession heading into the break. Michigan's offense was working against one of the nation's best defensive teams. Unfortunately, Duke was dominating in every other facet of the game, shooting 91 percent on twos and rebounding 42 percent of their misses. It was enough to give the Blue Devils a four point halftime lead.

Over the first 10 minutes of the second half, Duke took complete control of the game. A lead that had temporarily gotten as small as two points ballooned to 15. From there, Michigan wouldn't give up, and they chipped away at that lead until they were within eight with just over three minutes remaining. It would still take a phenomenal effort to win this game, but at least the Wolverines had kept contact.

From there, Tim Hardaway Jr. tried to provide that phenomenal effort, scoring seven straight points to make it a one point game with 1:28 remaining. On the ensuing possession, Duke missed a three but retained possession, leading to a made Kyrie Irving jumper. Michigan had the ball, down three, with 32 seconds remaining.

Darius Morris would make a layup to bring the lead back down to a point, and Duke's Nolan Smith made only one of two free throws at the other end. As the clock ran down, Morris drove into the lane and got a great look at a game-tying shot, but missed it. Duke retrieved the rebound and Michigan's season ended with a 73-71 loss.

The impressive result here was how effective Michigan's offense was against Duke. For the game, the Wolverines scored 1.16 points per possession--only St. John's hung a better output on the Blue Devils this season. It was true to form for John Beilein's better offensive teams, with a tiny turnover rate, fair enough three-point accuracy (33 percent), and a high conversion rate on twos (63 percent).

Five Wolverines finished in double figures, led by Morris' 16 points and 6 assists. Hardaway scored 15 points on 12 shots, and Evan Smotryczchipped in 13 points on 7 hoists.

Despite the loss, the season has to be considered an overwhelming success for Beilein and his team. Michigan had lost two all-conference type performers in Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, yet got a lot better at both ends. There's already a lot of talk about Michigan being the early favorite for the 2011-12 Big Ten title--understandably so, as the Wolverines don't figure to lose anyone off this roster. That may be a bit premature--remember, this team finished with a negative efficiency margin in conference play--but the future is definitely bright in Ann Arbor.

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Table for two

Sun, 20 Mar 2011 22:13:57 -0500

Jordan Taylor didn’t have a great game, but he had a great final two minutes. The Big Ten Geek Player of the Year was an awful 2-16 from the field, and was severely outplayed by his counterpart, Jacob Pullen (who lit up the Badgers for 38 points). But in crunch time, Taylor made his presence felt, with a key steal that led to a Mike Bruesewitz three pointer, and then later blocked Pullen’s three point attempt that would have tied the game with seconds on the clock. The end result was a 70-65 win for Wisconsin, who advances to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008. And the good news is that they won’t have to guard Stephen Curry. This game was a physical affair, as both Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil were bloodied in the opening minutes of the game. Indeed, it was rough going for the Badgers in the paint, as they converted just forty percent of their two point attempts. But the offense was nonetheless efficient, thanks to the typical combination of great ballhandling (a turnover rate of just 9 percent) and hot outside shooting (45 percent on threes). Leuer led the way with 19 points on 12 shots.

It was over before it began in Ohio State’s 98-66 win over George Mason. The Buckeyes scored 1.48 points per possession, thanks largely to its outstanding shooting performance. Thad Matta’s team was 61 percent from two point range and 62 percent from downtown, all good for a 74.7 effective field goal percentage. OSU also turned it over on less than 15 percent of their possessions, and rebounded over 40 percent of their rare misses. In short, it was domination. Ohio State is playing its best basketball of these season, right now. David Lighty led the way with 25 points on a mere 10 shots, and he was a perfect 7 for 7 from three point range.

Illinois ended their season in an emblematic loss--where the team shows they belong for about 35 minutes, and then crumbles down the stretch. Kansas’ Morris twins were just too much for the Illini, combining for 41 points and 25 rebounds in a 73-59 Jayhawk victory. Illinois got a nice boost from Mike Davis, who finished with a 17 point, 7 rebound line in his final game as an Illini. Despite the fact they shot poorly in this game, Bruce Weber’s team forced Kansas into a surprising number of turnovers.

It’s a shame that Illinois had to play a 1-seed in the round of 32, as this is a better team than your typical 8-seed. But this team brought it on itself. All season long, the Illini blew leads, and failed to convert late in games. Even so, this looked like a team that should have been a bit better than their +0.05 efficiency margin. The offense bears most of the blame, as the Illini once again attempted too many jumpers that counted for only two points. Going forward, the offense will look different. The main offenders of the mid-range jump shot were Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Demetri McCamey. But it’s hard to see this team being better next season. Obviously, a lot of seniors are walking out the door, and though Bruce Weber welcomes a very good recruiting class, it’s not a class that anyone would mistake for the Fab Five in terms of “instant impact.” Illinois figures to have the most problems in the frontcourt, as the only viable alternative to the Mikes this season was freshman Jereme Richmond--and his status appears to be up in the air for the moment.

That’s really the most disappointing part about this season: it was supposed to be a peak of sorts, and instead it was a plateau. The Illini still have a lot of talent going forward, it’s just very young at the moment. In a couple of years, this could be a dominant team once again. That is, so long as the next generation does not settle so much for mid-range jumpers.

And so now we’re down to two teams. That’s somewhat disappointing given how well the conference was on the season, but Ohio State and probably Wisconsin both look like the favorites to win their regions now. Certainly, two Final Four berths will go a long way in solidifying the conference’s reputation. Besides, no conference has more than two teams still dancing. It’s a pretty level field out there.

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Illinois and Ohio State roll

Sat, 19 Mar 2011 12:52:26 -0500

Illinois was fairly even with first round opponent UNLV to start off the game. After the Rebels took an early 9-8 lead, however, it was all Illini as Bruce Weber's team cruised to a 73-62 victory. Frankly, the game was not as close as the score, as Illinois had around a 20-point cushion for most of the game. The turnovers played out as expected, with UNLV forcing a lot of them, while Illinois failed to do the same. But when you shoot 62 percent on twos and 54 percent on threes, while holding the opponent to 47 percent and 29 percent, the turnover battle just isn't as important. The Illini also limited UNLV's second chances, grabbing 79 percent of the available defensive rebounds. Mike Davis was especially impressive with 22 points (13 shots), 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. Illinois' reward is a second round matchup against former Illinois coach Bill Self and the #1 seed Kansas Jayhawks.

Ohio State opened up Tournament play against #16th seed UT-San Antonio. I could probably just stop right there, and you could guess the outcome. The Buckeyes dominated the shooting, dominated the glass, and dispatched of UTSA like they were Billy Madison in a game of 4th-grade dodgeball. The final margin was 75-46, and William Buford led the team with 18 points to go with 5 assists and 6 rebounds. Ohio State continues its march to Houston with a second round matchup against George Mason.

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No mid-major troubles this year

Thu, 17 Mar 2011 21:58:50 -0500

Wisconsin was unusually sloppy with the ball in their 72-58 win over Belmont, but that tends not to matter when you shoot frequent three pointers at a 55 percent clip. Belmont’s pressure defense led to a Wisconsin turnover on over twenty percent of their possessions, something the Bruins have been doing to teams all season. In fact, Wisconsin posted their third-highest turnover rate of the season in this game. But hot shooting can cure all ills, and Belmont had no answer for the Badgers’ never-ending storm of three pointers. Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer were especially hot, combining for 43 points on 25 shots. Wisconsin will play the winner of Utah State and Kansas State, and right now it looks like it will be the Wildcats. If that’s the opponent, look for a big time battle on the boards (specifically, while Kansas State is on offense).

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Penn State succumbs to the Madness; big Spartan rally falls short

Thu, 17 Mar 2011 16:20:49 -0500

In a thrilling back-and-forth game that could have gone either way, Penn State saw their season come to an end with a 66-64 loss to Temple. The Nittany Lions got off to an ideal start, scoring 20 points on their first 13 possessions and taking an early nine point lead. Talor Battle was on a roll in his first ever NCAA Tournament appearance, hitting three of four from downtown, and his running mate Jeff Brooks had six points and two assists. The Nittany Lions were looking unstoppable.

Less than two minutes later, Brooks drew his second foul and was relegated to the bench. From there, things turned sour for Penn State, as Temple outscored them 22-13 the rest of the half. The Nittany Lions were down two points at the break, but Ed Dechellis probably figured he'd be able to use Brooks for the entire second half thanks to his long benching.

Instead, only a minute and change passed in the second half before Brooks suffered a shoulder injury that would keep him out for good. Penn State would have to win this one without their best rebounder and second-best scorer. That's no easy feat, but it was one the Nittany Lions came tantalizingly close to accomplishing.

Penn State relied on a typically low turnover rate and some timely three-point shooting to keep up with the Owls sans Brooks, but the same old defensive woes prevented the Lions from taking control. In the game's waning moments, Talor Battle nailed a huge three--from at least 5 feet behind the line--to even the score with 14 seconds remaining. It was a moment that illustrated why we Geeks were so excited to see Battle get his chance in the Tournament.

Temple, as you'd expect, held for the final shot, and Penn State's defense did well to force Temple guard Juan Fernandez into a tough two. Fernandez shot just 37 percent on twos this season, and this was by no means a good look, but the Argentinian nailed it anyway to end Penn State's season in heartbreaking fashion.

For the game, Penn State scored 1.10 points per possession--an impressive total considering Jeff Brooks' 10 minutes of playing time. The Nittany Lions shot well from all over the court, including 42 percent from three, and turned it over on just 15.5 percent of their trips. This should have been enough scoring to get a victory, as only four teams had scored this well on Temple all season, including Duke, Villanova, and Xavier. This was truly a fantastic scoring effort from Penn State.

Talor Battle ended his career with 23 points on 21 shots, while David Jackson chipped in 14 points on 11 shots. Tim Frazier continued his fantastic finish to the season with 15 points (6 shots), 5 rebounds, and 7 assists. Frazier quietly shot 60 percent on threes over his final 10 games (9-15), giving some hope that he'll be able to increase his output next season as one of the team's main guys.

Unfortunately, all that good offense went for naught, as Penn State allowed Temple to shoot 61 percent on twos and score 1.14 points per possession. That end of the floor was the problem for Penn State all season, and it ultimately led to their demise. It was a very good season for the Nittany Lions, but to come so close to an NCAA Tournament win and fall short has to sting.

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Michigan State got off to a wretched start against UCLA, falling behind 7-0 right out of the gates. Things wouldn't get any better for the rest of the first half, as the Spartans turned it over on 28 percent of their possessions and shot terribly (35 percent on twos, 14 percent on threes). All the while, the Bruins, not normally a great rebounding team, were dominating the glass at both ends and retrieving over half of their misses. When the dust settled, Michigan State went into halftime staring at an 18 point deficit.

After the break, it appeared that Tom Izzo had spoken some sense into his team, and the Spartan offense suddenly looked crisp in a quick 11-2 run. The lead, which had briefly touched 20 points, was down to 11 with 16 minutes remaining. Michigan State had hope.

After some back and forth play, UCLA went on a run of their own, this one 15-2 over just seven possessions, to swell the lead to 23 points. That outburst was the only positive stretch of the second half for the Bruins, but it would prove to be just enough to hold off the Spartans. Michigan State kept fighting and nailing threes down the stretch, and UCLA kept missing free throws, allowing the Spartans to claw within a single point on a Keith Appling three with 4.4 seconds left. UCLA then went to the foul line, made the first, and missed the second, but the Spartans were out of timeouts and Kalin Lucas hurried into a travel as he prepared for a half court heave. UCLA prevailed by a 78-76 score.

This game was a microcosm of Michigan State's season, with a terrible start forcing them to play in desperation mode down the stretch. The Spartans absolutely dominated the second half, scoring at 1.39 points per trip and holding UCLA to a 0.96 efficiency, but they had already dug themselves too deep a hole.

Lucas had a very rough night--he didn't score until a breakaway layup with just 7:44 remaining and finished with 11 points (14 shots), 5 assists, and 4 turnovers. Draymond Green did all he could, posting a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists, along with 4 steals. Durrell Summers put up 15 points on 15 shots in his final game in a Michigan State uniform.

So ends a disappointing season for the Spartans, one that began with inflated preseason expectations and ended with a whimper. Looking back at Michigan State's schedule, there really weren't a lot of terrible results if you simply had considered the Spartans a middling Big Ten team from the start. Their four nonconference losses were to teams that all currently reside in Pomeroy's top 14, and the conference losses that looked bad at the time (at Penn State, vs Michigan) turned out to not be so bad after all. The only real headscratcher was the blowout loss at Iowa. This was a decent team weighed down by unrealistic expectations, a problem they don't figure to have this fall.

- Posted by Mike Portscheller

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Now for the real fun

Mon, 14 Mar 2011 15:36:37 -0500

Seven teams. This time last week, no such thought entered my mind. Did things break just right at the Big Ten Tournament for this to happen? You bet. But nonetheless, the conference is certainly good enough to get seven in, and they’re all good enough to be dancing. The lowest ranking by Pomeroy is Michigan State, sitting at 41. So bravo to the Big Ten, now let’s see if they can make some noise in the Dance.

Ohio State (#1 seed, East Region)
Technically, Ohio State’s first game is the winner of Texas San-Antonio/Alabama State. But the Buckeyes will win that game, easily, and nobody wants to read precisely why and how they will. I’m sure Thad Matta will say all the right things about not overlooking whoever their opponent is, but he’s going to overlook them. As he should.

So OSU’s first real test will be either George Mason or Villanova. I happen to think it will be George Mason, but the Wildcats could conceivably snap out of their funk as well. As Nova fans know all too well, the team started out at 16-1, with wins over Temple, UCLA, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Maryland. They finished the season on a 5-10 skid, with losses to Providence, Rutgers, and South Florida included. They also needed overtime to put away a woeful DePaul team. What people may not realize is that the slide of the Wildcats started a bit later than that. Up until late February, this was still the 2nd best team in the Big East by efficiency margin. Then the wheels fell off and the Wildcats were beat handily by the likes of St. John’s, Notre Dame, Pitt, and yes, South Florida. Why? Well, it was largely because of problems on the defensive side of the ball. Opponents made shots, didn’t turn it over, and consistently rebounded about 40 percent of their rare misses. Over the last 4 games of the season, VU’s opponents scored well over 1.1 points per possession. Obviously, a team that doesn’t defend is likely going to get their clocks cleaned by the Buckeyes. But before Nova can claim such an honor, they have to get by George Mason.

George Mason I suspect would be a popular Cinderella were it not for the fact that their path to Houston included a second-round matchup with the Buckeyes. Obviously, GMU is no stranger to deep tournament runs, and frankly, this year’s team looks a bit similar to the one that came 5 years prior. In 2006, the Patriots started out 7-4 before finishing the pre-Dance season on a 16-3 tear, which included a second round loss in the Colonial Tournament. This year, the team started out 10-5 and finished 16-1, with that one loss once again coming in the second round of the Colonial Tournament. But the similarities largely end there. That team was built on defense, this one is charged by offense. GMU is an excellent shooting team (over 40 percent on threes in conference play) that doesn’t turn the ball over and also gets to the line. It’s also worth noting that GMU beat up on the rest of the CAA like they were a John Calipari-coached Memphis in Conference USA. I must admit, teams like this always destroy my bracket. Although I’m well aware of their fine efficiencies, I nonetheless underrate them. My suspicion is that we’re not getting the full treatment from Larranaga’s boys in CAA play. The urge to unleash the beast drops after taking a 30-point lead in front of 1,500 people at Matthews Arena. But efficiency margins don’t account for that. Long story short, beware the Patriots, as there’s likely some gas-easing built in to their numbers. It would quite obviously be a massive upset for them to defeat Ohio State, but I suspect a real game will be had here.

Purdue (#3 seed, Southwest Region)
I think Purdue fans have a legitimate gripe about the number next to their school in the bracket, though for all practical purposes it seems that’s just a number. St. Peter’s is closer to a 15-seed than a 14, and Notre Dame looks to be the weakest 2-seed in the bracket. St. Peter’s upset the MAAC favorite Iona in the conference tournament final, though I don’t expect them to pose a real threat to the Boilers. The short take is that the defense is very good, and the offense is very bad.

In the second round, the Boilers could see any one of three teams (Georgetown, USC, and the controversial VCU). Losers of 5 of their last 6, the Hoyas have been perfectly ordinary in conference play, mostly due to their inability to win the turnover battle. They cough it up a lot on offense, but turnovers are rarely forced at the other end. Georgetown also shoots a lot of threes, but not particularly well. That’s going to dovetail nicely with Purdue’s overplay defense.

USC does three things very well--hold on to the basketball, defend threes, and rebound on defense. Everything else, they’re not so great at. Nicola Vucevic figures to be a real challenge for JaJuan Johnson if they meet up. The big man from Montenegro scores from all over the floor and he’s a powerhouse rebounder (though not much of a shot blocker). I imagine the Trojans will try and exploit his outside shooting ability to bring Johnson out of the lane, and thus open things up for others on the inside. Neither Vucevic nor Johnson foul very much, but if one of them does get into foul trouble, it could be decisive.

VCU plays a hectic brand of basketball that forces turnovers, but isn’t very good in the halfcourt. So long as Lewis Jackson plays like the mature guard he’s been in conference play, they shouldn’t be a problem. Jamie Skeen is another good-shooting big man that actually draws quite a few fouls, so Johnson may have to be careful there as well.

Wisconsin (#4 seed, Southeast Region)
It had to be Belmont. Over the past 4 seasons, the Badgers have been eliminated by a mid-major team in the Dance, and all but one of those occasions the opponent was the lower-seeded team. And Belmont just happens to be a lower-seeded mid-major, though it’s a sleeping giant. Maybe the Selection Committee has a sick sense of humor, or maybe this is what happens when your last impression to the seeding Gods is getting housed by Ohio State and following it up with 33 points against one of the poorer defenses in the Big Ten.

The matchup against Belmont consists largely of immovable objects and irresistible forces. The Bruins force tons of turnovers on defense, and crash the offensive glass on offense. Wisconsin is the best in the nation in terms of both taking care of the ball and defensive rebounding. Heck, Atlantic Sun opponents shot just 63 percent from the line against Belmont, while the Badgers drained over 85 percent of their free throws. On paper, Wisconsin should win this game, but only by a couple of points. And keep in mind, we have the same problem with Belmont that we had with George Mason: most of Belmont’s wins were blowouts, some by more than 40 points. Again, I suspect that we’re not getting 40 minutes of their “A game” in the latter stages of some of these laughers. So throw some salt onto what the paper says here. The truth is that this is an unfair first-round matchup for Wisconsin, and it’s certainly not the easiest game in which to remove the mid-major monkey from the Badgers’ collective back.

What’s more is that if the Badgers do advance past Belmont, they may end up facing the best mid-major team in the Dance in the form of Utah State (granting the Mountain West power conference status for this season, that is). The Aggies share some similarities with the Badgers in that they rebound well (especially at the defensive end, but they are capable offensive rebounders as well) and don’t look to force turnovers on defense. Containing Tai Wesley figures to be at the top of Bo Ryan’s list, as the bulky 6-7 senior shoots 60 percent on twos and lives at the free throw line. Offensively, UW will have a challenge making threes against the USU defense. Conference opponents were under 27 percent from downtown.

All of that assumes that Utah State gets past the surging Kansas State. All of that NIT boycott business now seems silly as the Wildcats earned a 5-seed. Obviously, Kansas State’s 6-game winning streak, which included wins over Texas and Kansas, played a big part in that. What changed? The biggest change was probably the shooting. Over that stretch, KSU shot 44 percent from 3 and just under 50 percent on twos. It’s also worth noting that the Wildcats made a concerted effort to get the ball inside over the win streak as well, as under 30 percent of their attempts came from three point range. Six games is a small sample, so maybe it’s a coincidence. Either way, Wisconsin should be prepared to defend the paint. But the good news is that the strengths of Kansas State--offensive rebounding and turnover forcing--are not easily conceded by the Badgers.

Michigan (#8 seed, West Region)
Michigan’s first game is an entirely winnable matchup with Tennessee. Though they accomplished plenty in the non-conference, the Volunteers were absolutely ordinary in a mediocre conference. Bruce Pearl’s team is adequate defensively, but they just can’t make shots. Scotty Hopson is the engine that makes them go. Stop him, and they can’t score.

If Michigan makes it past the Vols, they’ll be rewarded with the defending champs. Duke enters the Tournament with one fewer loss than they had last season, though there doesn’t seem to be a lot of chatter about the possibility of them repeating. The Blue Devils are certainly capable of doing just that, however. Nolan Smith has become a special player, one deserving of All-American status. Kyle Singler has been good if not great, and there are some other nice pieces like the Plumlee brothers and sharpshooter Seth Curry. It’s a typical Duke overplay defense--teams don’t like shooting threes against them, and the rotations are quick to draw charges. That makes for an interesting matchup with Michigan, of course, as the Wolverines really space teams out, so that help defense will have to move quickly. Of course, if Kyrie Irving plays, watch out.

Illinois (#9 seed, Southwest Region)
Throw out the numbers. The Committee put the Illini up against its two former coaches in the first two rounds. These games are not so much about UNLV’s turnover-forcing or Kansas’ dominant inside play as they are about Athletic Director Ron Guenther’s visit from the Ghost of Madness Past. Sure, I could tell you that the Illini have done well in recent years against pressing teams, and that although Illinois doesn’t usually get to the line a lot, UNLV does foul a ton. I could tell you that the Rebels struggle with outside shooting, and that the matchup between Demetri McCamey and Tre’Von Willis could be determinative. I could tell you that Illinois will have their hands full guarding the Winklevi of college basketball in the Morris twins. I could tell you that the Jayhawks have been playing long stretches without a point guard (because Josh Selby can’t shoot, and Elijah Johnson can’t defend), and because of that, KU is susceptible to ball pressure.

I could tell you all of those things, but I doubt any of this will be the primary reason why Illinois wins or loses these games. Put simply, Illinois, more than any other team in the Big Ten, has not played to their talent level this season. And at times, it’s certainly appeared that the team seemingly had better things to do than hold onto leads late in close games. All of that actually makes this draw quite favorable to Illinois. Because now there’s a reason for the team to care. Playing ex-coaches is a big deal to fans, it’s a big deal to the media, and I’m sure it’s a big deal to the coaches as well. It’s the basketball equivalent of running into an old girlfriend--you want to look like you’ve been doing really well. (Yes, that’s my BMW. My wife--did I mention she was a model?--she’s got one too. The extra legroom comes in handy when we’re taking those weekend drives up the coast to our summer home.) If that gives the Illini a reason to play to their potential, well, there’s no reason they can’t keep playing past the first weekend.

Penn State (#10 seed, West Region)
Temple is a tough 7-seed, but it could be worse. The Nittany Lions could be facing the best team in the Pac-10 as a 10 seed (good luck with that, Georgia). Instead, they’re merely facing the 2nd-best team in the Atlantic 10. This game might not last 90 minutes, as neither team likes stopping the action for fouls. The teams are also similar in that they do not turn the ball over very much. The teams do have significant differences however, one example being that Temple actually plays defense. Penn State, on the other hand, was the 9th-best defensive team in the Big Ten. This past weekend’s aberration notwithstanding, the Lions are likely going to have to win this game on offense. Penn State shoots two pointers rather well (largely thanks to Jeff Brooks, who is shooting 63 percent on 2s in Big Ten play), but Temple also defends the paint (opponents are shooting 43 percent on 2s on the year). Overall, this looks like a tough matchup for the Nittany Lions, once that may require some Talor Battle heroics. But he’s good at that stuff.

If they get by the Owls, Penn State will face San Diego State. The Aztecs are a legitimate 2-seed with a ferocious defense, one better than PSU has faced all season. SDSU doesn’t allow 2s, 3s, and they don’t foul. There’s also a lot of shotblocking ability on the Aztecs, especially from senior Malcolm Thomas. His matchup with Brooks figures to be a good one. But the Aztecs’ best player is Kawhi Leonard, a legitimate NBA lottery prospect and one of the best rebounders in the country. What scouts love about Leonard is how productive he is despite being so raw offensively. Indeed, he’s kind of a mediocre shooter at this point. Nonetheless, he’s an All-MWC performer. Certainly, Penn State did not get an easy draw.

Michigan State (#10 seed, Southeast Region)
Somehow, some way, Tom Izzo has his team dancing. It took three overtime wins in conference play, and a couple more Ws in Indianapolis, but they’re still one of the last 68 teams eligible to win the National Championship. They’ll face UCLA in the first round, the regular season Pac-10 champs. Color me confused on the seeding of Pac-10 teams. Washington was the best team per on-court reality, UCLA won the regular season title, and Arizona won the most Pac-10 games (by virtue of winning the conference tournament). Yet, the highest seed for any of those three was a 5-seed to ‘Zona. The Big Ten got 3 teams seeded higher than that. Six of the Big East’s teams were 5-seeds or better. Three for the Big XII. The ACC got a deserving 2, the same number as the Mountain West. The Committee figured that three teams in the SEC were better than or equal to the best of what the Pac-10 offered. Maybe it’s just me, but I just can’t believe that there’s 18 teams out there that are better than (or equal to) everyone in the Pac-10.

OK, rant over. UCLA is a fine defensive team, the best in the Pac-10 in fact, and Michigan State struggled to score all season. What’s worse is that the Bruins are especially good at defending the paint, the epicenter of MSU’s troubles. What’s more is that UCLA really gets out on shooters, thus driving most of the shots inside. Both frontlines are extremely physical, and UCLA’s Josh Smith may be the finest offensive rebounder in the country. Also, this game could get very sloppy, as both squads have turnover issues.

If they can get past the Bruins, it will likely be Florida awaiting the Spartans. The Gators have recovered nicely after a disappointing non-conference season, winning the regular season SEC title. Florida has a powerful offense that relies on the shotmaking abilities of Vernon Macklin and Chandler Parsons, both of whom shoot over 55 percent on two pointers. Offensively for Michigan State, this is a good matchup. The Gators really don’t disturb shots, especially on the interior. Though Florida is a good defensive rebounding team, Michigan State relies on offensive rebounding a bit less than Izzo’s teams normally do.

Everything kicks off on Thursday with Penn State vs. Temple, Wisconsin vs. Belmont, and Michigan State vs. UCLA. Finally, the Madness is here.

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