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Sunday, March 27, 2011, 7:57 PM
Brandon Knight’s 15-foot jumper ended Ohio State’s season in a 62-60 loss to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. The Buckeyes ran into the same problem that led to Wisconsin’s defeat on Thursday, which is an inability to make shots--both contested and uncontested shots. Most shocking was that OSU was just 31 percent inside the arc. But give credit to Kentucky, which features one of the finest interior defenses in the country, allowing opponents to make just 42 percent of their two point attempts. It was an especially frustrating night for William Buford, who was just 2 of 16 from the field. The Buckeyes were led by Jared Sullinger’s 21 points. I’m writing this just after Virginia Commonwealth punched its ticket to the Final Four, joining Butler and UConn. This leads to the inescapable conclusion that basketball is just nuts this season (keep in mind, the Hukies were a #9 seed in their own conference tournament). Sure, more was expected from Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament after the team emerged as the Big Ten’s best team (which was arguably the best conference in Division I). But that’s March for you. If you replayed this year’s bracket a few hundred times, I’m sure that at least one 1-seed would make it to Houston. In a single elimination tournament format, there’s no guarantee that the best team wins the championship. But that’s a fact of every sport. The great part about college basketball is that everyone has a chance. All you need is something like a 10-game winning streak to finish the season. All of this is to say that although the finish was disappointing, you cannot say that Ohio State underachieved or somehow did not play up to its potential this season simply because the team went ice cold at an inopportune time. It was a great year for Ohio State, and Thad Matta’s team should be proud, even if the school wished to raise another banner. As for next year, it’s TBD at this point. Specifically, the futures of Jared Sullinger and William Buford need to be sorted out before anyone can provide an educated guess as to how good the team figures to be next season. Right now, Sullinger says he’s coming back. Ditto Buford. I have no reason to believe these young men are anything less than completely forthcoming, but it’s a good idea to take NBA draft-related declarations in March with a grain of salt. Ohio State fans know this all too well after hearing similar promises from Mike Conley Jr. shortly after his season ended in the National Championship game. And I don’t blame anyone for changing their mind, in either direction. This is not a decision one takes lightly. But let’s play “what if.” It probably goes without saying that if Both Buford and Sullinger return, that Ohio State is your preseason #1 team and the heavy favorite to win the Big Ten next season. If only one of those players returns, the Buckeyes are probably something like a top 10 team, and again almost surely the best team in the Big Ten. If neither come back, however, not all hope is lost. DeShaun Thomas appears to be a fantastic breakout candidate this season, and Matta welcomes yet another monster recruiting class (though I’m not sure there are any Jared Sullingers in this class). There are also talents like Jordan Sibert and Lenzelle Smith that were buried on the bench behind OSU’s talented wings. The only question is whether the defense could keep rolling. Bottom line, even without Sullinger and Buford, this team should still be dancing next season. It’s not often you can say that about a team that loses five starters. That wraps up another season of Big Ten Geeks, perhaps the most entertaining one yet. While we expected the conference to be good, it was nonetheless surprising. Both Michigan and Penn State refused to endure a rebuilding season, while Purdue refused to cry over torn ACLs. Michigan State and Illinois provided plenty of stress for fans and gray hairs for Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber. And Ohio State and Wisconsin entertained with the best and second-best offenses in the country on a per possession basis.We hope to be back next year, and hopefully you’ll join us then. In the meantime, you can follow us on Twitter. See you in November.
Friday, March 25, 2011, 10:36 AM
And it happened again. For the fifth straight season, Wisconsin was bounced from the NCAA Tournament by a mid-major team. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs that escorted the Badgers out of the Dance by a score of 61-54 in a 63 possession game. It’s no secret that Wisconsin relies on jumpshots. This isn’t a bad thing, mind you, as the offense has never been better in Madison. Indeed, even in light of last night’s 0.86 points per possession output, this was still the second-best offense in the country. But apparently there are some nights when the shots just do not fall. Twice this season Wisconsin has posted an effective field goal percentage under 40.0. The first time was when the team scored 33 points against Penn State in the slowest game between Division I foes in some 13 years. The second time was last night. Other than that, you can’t say that Wisconsin played that poorly. The defense held Butler to under a point per possession. And before you say “well sure, but they’re just Butler,” keep in mind that this is not something that’s happened to the Bulldogs since February 3rd. In fact, every time Butler was held to under a point per trip this season, they lost. Until last night. In addition to taking a plethora of jumpshots, the Wisconsin offense is predicated on taking more shots than the other teams. Frankly, mission accomplished, as UW attempted 11 more shots than the Bulldogs. But that matters little when the team shoots 37 percent on twos and 24 percent on threes. And while a lot of credit should be thrown in the general direction of Brad Stevens, you simply cannot shoot this poorly without missing some wide open looks. Wisconsin missed plenty of open shots last night, and they paid for that. Speaking of this Stevens fellow, I continue to be amazed at what he’s put together. It’s one thing for a mid-major team to catch fire in March, and blast all the way to a Final Four. We’ve seen that a couple of times now. But for that same team to do it twice in a row (Florida being the only remaining roadblock), after losing two starters (including its best player), well, the architect of such an accomplishment is worthy of all the praise he receives. This offseason, I expect to see plenty of Athletic Directors waving blank checks in front of Stevens. If the coach takes any of them up on that offer--watch out, Conference Opponents of Team That Hired Brad Stevens. But back to Wisconsin. Certainly, it’s a bummer for this team to exit the Tournament, but at least this season the Badgers did not bow out at a woefully premature stage. This team was good enough for the Final Four, but not so good that anything short of that would be an underachievement. And that’s been occurring far too often in recent seasons. Assuming Jordan Taylor comes back, there’s no reason this team can’t compete for another Big Ten title next year. Mike Bruesewitz figures to help fill in the very big shoes of Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil, and I expect he’ll see some help from Jared Berggren in doing so. So I won’t count Wisconsin out next season, and anyone who does so does so at their own peril (they will, of course). It’s the season after next season that concerns me, however. But that’s a long way out. What will probably happen--as is the custom for Bo Ryan’s teams--is that someone will rip off their redshirt and reveal a superstar in the making. In the unusual event that does not happen, however, then there is a real window here, and it’s closing.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011, 10:45 AM
It's happened understandably under the radar, but Northwestern has put together a couple nice wins so far in the NIT. First, in a rare postseason home game, the Wildcats used some surprising tactics--namely, offensive rebounding and solid defense--to outlast Wisconsin Milwaukee by a 70-61 score. Despite a big size advantage, Northwestern shot just 42 percent on twos, but they compensated by retrieving 45 percent of their misses and making a third of their numerous three point attempts. The result was a solid 1.15 points per possession.
At the other end, the Panthers shot well but couldn't hold onto the ball. Their 26 percent turnover rate was the fifth highest forced by Northwestern all season, and it kept Milwaukee from getting above a point per trip.
John Shurna and Michael Thompson combined for 45 points on 31 shots. Luka Mirkovic finished with 4 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and no turnovers.
The second round figured to present a much greater challenge, as the Wildcats travelled to Chestnut Hill to face former bubble team Boston College. This was a matchup of teams with great offenses and bad defenses, with a bit of an Ivy League style thrown in. Northwestern exploded from the field for an 85-67 win that spanned 62 possessions. The Wildcats shot 73 percent on twos and 42 percent on threes, resulting in a 66.9 effective field goal percentage that matched their second best shooting game of the season. Their best shooting game? The home matchup against Georgia Tech. Northwestern needs to lobby to join the ACC.
The Wildcats scored 1.37 points per trip, a lofty output that Boston College had only allowed to one team all season (North Carolina). Northwestern's defense wasn't anything special, but it usually won't matter if you're scoring like that.
Thompson and Shurna combined for 42 points (32 shots), 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and just three turnovers. Mirkovic had another fantastic game with 13 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and no turnovers. This guy is making up for lost time after missing last season's NIT loss.
Northwestern moves on to the NIT quarterfinals with a late road game at Washington State (10pm CT Wednesday, ESPN2). The Cougars have been on quite the offensive roll lately, scoring 1.07 ppp or more in five of their last six games, so this could be another high-scoring affair. Junior guards Klay Thompson and Faisal Aden each take a third of their team's shots when on the floor, so stopping those two guys has to be the main concern. With Aden, that isn't so daunting--he posted a 39.9 eFG percentage in Pac 10 play--but Thompson is a legitimate scorer, especially from three. It's a battle of the Thompsons, Klay vs. Juice, with a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line.
- Posted by Mike Portscheller
Monday, March 21, 2011, 4:51 PM
Purdue's NCAA Tournament started out well enough with a 65-43 win over an outmatched St. Peter's squad. As could have been expected, the Pea**** struggled mightily at the offensive end, shooting 32 percent on twos and 24 percent on threes. The resulting 0.65 efficiency was among the lowest allowed by Purdue all season.
Still, even in this blowout win, things just didn't feel quite right for the Boilermakers. Purdue struggled a bit against St. Peter's solid defense, posting their second highest turnover rate of the season (24 percent). The Boilermakers didn't shoot all that well either (46 percent on twos, 33 percent on threes), resulting in a pedestrian 0.99 points per possession. Sure, St. Peter's has defended very well this season, but that's still a low output. For reference, note that St. Peter's has allowed a higher efficiency to teams like Fairfield, Rider, Lehigh, Long Beach State, Loyola (MD)... this wasn't a good offensive performance for the Boilermakers by any measure.
With that said, I don't think anyone foresaw what would happen next. In the Round of 32, Purdue got absolutely destroyed by Virginia Commonwealth, 94-76. The Boilermaker offense actually did alright in this one, scoring 1.16 points per trip thanks to a low turnover rate, but Purdue simply couldn't stop the Rams. VCU used dribble penetration to open up Purdue's overplaying defense, and the result was 66 percent shooting on twos and 38 percent shooting on threes. To make matters worse, VCU turned it over on just 6 percent of their possessions. The Rams scored 1.43 points per trip, a total that just blows away anything anybody did against Purdue all season. Even the spanking at Ohio State wasn't this bad.
It's hard to pinpoint why this happened. Maybe this smaller VCU squad was just a bad matchup for this Purdue team. Maybe the Rams are red-hot and playing with a chip on their shoulder. Maybe Kelsey Barlow is the greatest defender ever known to man. Whatever the reason, Purdue's season, and the collegiate careers of E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, came to a disappointing and unceremonious close. For all the great play they provided in West Lafayette, these seniors would never take their team further than the Sweet Sixteen.
Still, despite the Tournament flameout, this was quite the season for the Boilermakers. They proved a lot of people wrong, including us, in the way they compensated for the loss of Robbie Hummel. Moore and Johnson both made big leaps from their previous standards, and the supporting cast did a much better job than expected. Of the Big Ten teams that finished conference play with a positive efficiency margin, the Boilermakers will return the most minutes next season. If Hummel comes back fully healthy, the Boilermakers figure to be in the Big Ten title discussion again. That may be little solace to Purdue fans that were looking for more from this Tournament.
- Posted by Mike Portscheller
Monday, March 21, 2011, 4:26 PM
It started out competitively enough. Michigan and Tennessee played most of the first half like a typical 8/9 matchup, with neither team getting larger than a six point lead. That’s the advantage Tennessee held with seven minutes left in the first half--to that point, the Wolverines had clanked their way to a 35.4 effective field goal percentage and had struggled to stop Tennessee freshman Tobias Harris inside. Jordan Morgan and Tim Hardaway Jr. had two fouls apiece. John Beilein could have been forgiven for being a bit worried.
From there, however, things got a lot more fun for Michigan. The Wolverines hit seven of their next 12 shots, including two threes, to take a four point lead into halftime. It was a nice run, keyed by Matt Vogrich, but this was still anybody’s game.
After the break, Michigan exploded. The Wolverines opened the second half on a 19-2 run and kept their feet on the gas the rest of the way for a 75-45 trouncing. In the second half, Michigan shot 71 percent on twos and 55 percent on threes, driving them to a 1.36 efficiency without the benefit of a free throw. This was Beilein Ball at its finest.
Perhaps more impressive was the defensive effort after the break. In catchup mode, Tennessee was relegated to hoisting shot after shot from deep, and they made just 14 percent of them. More importantly, Michigan forced turnovers on nearly a third of Tennessee’s second half possessions. It was just an unreal performance, and the Volunteers were held to 0.52 points per trip in the second half. For the full game, Tennessee was held to a 0.71 efficiency, easily their lowest output of the season. The Volunteers faced a long list of good defenses this season--Pitt, Connecticut, Belmont, USC, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky--and none of them stopped Tennessee as well as Michigan just did. These Wolverines have proven their defensive prowess down the stretch in a big way.
Seven Wolverines scored at least eight points apiece, led by Zack Novak’s 14-10 double-double. Darius Morris posted 8 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists, while Stu Douglass put up 11 points, 5 assists, and just 1 turnover.
As their reward, the Wolverines moved onto to Sunday's matchup with the Duke Blue Devils. Michigan hung right with the defending national champions for the entire first half, using the standard Beilein Ball formula (low turnovers, lots of threes) to score 1.10 points per possession heading into the break. Michigan's offense was working against one of the nation's best defensive teams. Unfortunately, Duke was dominating in every other facet of the game, shooting 91 percent on twos and rebounding 42 percent of their misses. It was enough to give the Blue Devils a four point halftime lead.
Over the first 10 minutes of the second half, Duke took complete control of the game. A lead that had temporarily gotten as small as two points ballooned to 15. From there, Michigan wouldn't give up, and they chipped away at that lead until they were within eight with just over three minutes remaining. It would still take a phenomenal effort to win this game, but at least the Wolverines had kept contact.
From there, Tim Hardaway Jr. tried to provide that phenomenal effort, scoring seven straight points to make it a one point game with 1:28 remaining. On the ensuing possession, Duke missed a three but retained possession, leading to a made Kyrie Irving jumper. Michigan had the ball, down three, with 32 seconds remaining.
Darius Morris would make a layup to bring the lead back down to a point, and Duke's Nolan Smith made only one of two free throws at the other end. As the clock ran down, Morris drove into the lane and got a great look at a game-tying shot, but missed it. Duke retrieved the rebound and Michigan's season ended with a 73-71 loss.
The impressive result here was how effective Michigan's offense was against Duke. For the game, the Wolverines scored 1.16 points per possession--only St. John's hung a better output on the Blue Devils this season. It was true to form for John Beilein's better offensive teams, with a tiny turnover rate, fair enough three-point accuracy (33 percent), and a high conversion rate on twos (63 percent).
Five Wolverines finished in double figures, led by Morris' 16 points and 6 assists. Hardaway scored 15 points on 12 shots, and Evan Smotryczchipped in 13 points on 7 hoists.
Despite the loss, the season has to be considered an overwhelming success for Beilein and his team. Michigan had lost two all-conference type performers in Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, yet got a lot better at both ends. There's already a lot of talk about Michigan being the early favorite for the 2011-12 Big Ten title--understandably so, as the Wolverines don't figure to lose anyone off this roster. That may be a bit premature--remember, this team finished with a negative efficiency margin in conference play--but the future is definitely bright in Ann Arbor.
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