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Tuesday, March 22, 2011, 10:45 AM
It's happened understandably under the radar, but Northwestern has put together a couple nice wins so far in the NIT. First, in a rare postseason home game, the Wildcats used some surprising tactics--namely, offensive rebounding and solid defense--to outlast Wisconsin Milwaukee by a 70-61 score. Despite a big size advantage, Northwestern shot just 42 percent on twos, but they compensated by retrieving 45 percent of their misses and making a third of their numerous three point attempts. The result was a solid 1.15 points per possession.
At the other end, the Panthers shot well but couldn't hold onto the ball. Their 26 percent turnover rate was the fifth highest forced by Northwestern all season, and it kept Milwaukee from getting above a point per trip.
John Shurna and Michael Thompson combined for 45 points on 31 shots. Luka Mirkovic finished with 4 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and no turnovers.
The second round figured to present a much greater challenge, as the Wildcats travelled to Chestnut Hill to face former bubble team Boston College. This was a matchup of teams with great offenses and bad defenses, with a bit of an Ivy League style thrown in. Northwestern exploded from the field for an 85-67 win that spanned 62 possessions. The Wildcats shot 73 percent on twos and 42 percent on threes, resulting in a 66.9 effective field goal percentage that matched their second best shooting game of the season. Their best shooting game? The home matchup against Georgia Tech. Northwestern needs to lobby to join the ACC.
The Wildcats scored 1.37 points per trip, a lofty output that Boston College had only allowed to one team all season (North Carolina). Northwestern's defense wasn't anything special, but it usually won't matter if you're scoring like that.
Thompson and Shurna combined for 42 points (32 shots), 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and just three turnovers. Mirkovic had another fantastic game with 13 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and no turnovers. This guy is making up for lost time after missing last season's NIT loss.
Northwestern moves on to the NIT quarterfinals with a late road game at Washington State (10pm CT Wednesday, ESPN2). The Cougars have been on quite the offensive roll lately, scoring 1.07 ppp or more in five of their last six games, so this could be another high-scoring affair. Junior guards Klay Thompson and Faisal Aden each take a third of their team's shots when on the floor, so stopping those two guys has to be the main concern. With Aden, that isn't so daunting--he posted a 39.9 eFG percentage in Pac 10 play--but Thompson is a legitimate scorer, especially from three. It's a battle of the Thompsons, Klay vs. Juice, with a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line.
- Posted by Mike Portscheller
Monday, March 21, 2011, 4:51 PM
Purdue's NCAA Tournament started out well enough with a 65-43 win over an outmatched St. Peter's squad. As could have been expected, the Pea**** struggled mightily at the offensive end, shooting 32 percent on twos and 24 percent on threes. The resulting 0.65 efficiency was among the lowest allowed by Purdue all season.
Still, even in this blowout win, things just didn't feel quite right for the Boilermakers. Purdue struggled a bit against St. Peter's solid defense, posting their second highest turnover rate of the season (24 percent). The Boilermakers didn't shoot all that well either (46 percent on twos, 33 percent on threes), resulting in a pedestrian 0.99 points per possession. Sure, St. Peter's has defended very well this season, but that's still a low output. For reference, note that St. Peter's has allowed a higher efficiency to teams like Fairfield, Rider, Lehigh, Long Beach State, Loyola (MD)... this wasn't a good offensive performance for the Boilermakers by any measure.
With that said, I don't think anyone foresaw what would happen next. In the Round of 32, Purdue got absolutely destroyed by Virginia Commonwealth, 94-76. The Boilermaker offense actually did alright in this one, scoring 1.16 points per trip thanks to a low turnover rate, but Purdue simply couldn't stop the Rams. VCU used dribble penetration to open up Purdue's overplaying defense, and the result was 66 percent shooting on twos and 38 percent shooting on threes. To make matters worse, VCU turned it over on just 6 percent of their possessions. The Rams scored 1.43 points per trip, a total that just blows away anything anybody did against Purdue all season. Even the spanking at Ohio State wasn't this bad.
It's hard to pinpoint why this happened. Maybe this smaller VCU squad was just a bad matchup for this Purdue team. Maybe the Rams are red-hot and playing with a chip on their shoulder. Maybe Kelsey Barlow is the greatest defender ever known to man. Whatever the reason, Purdue's season, and the collegiate careers of E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, came to a disappointing and unceremonious close. For all the great play they provided in West Lafayette, these seniors would never take their team further than the Sweet Sixteen.
Still, despite the Tournament flameout, this was quite the season for the Boilermakers. They proved a lot of people wrong, including us, in the way they compensated for the loss of Robbie Hummel. Moore and Johnson both made big leaps from their previous standards, and the supporting cast did a much better job than expected. Of the Big Ten teams that finished conference play with a positive efficiency margin, the Boilermakers will return the most minutes next season. If Hummel comes back fully healthy, the Boilermakers figure to be in the Big Ten title discussion again. That may be little solace to Purdue fans that were looking for more from this Tournament.
- Posted by Mike Portscheller
Monday, March 21, 2011, 4:26 PM
It started out competitively enough. Michigan and Tennessee played most of the first half like a typical 8/9 matchup, with neither team getting larger than a six point lead. That’s the advantage Tennessee held with seven minutes left in the first half--to that point, the Wolverines had clanked their way to a 35.4 effective field goal percentage and had struggled to stop Tennessee freshman Tobias Harris inside. Jordan Morgan and Tim Hardaway Jr. had two fouls apiece. John Beilein could have been forgiven for being a bit worried.
From there, however, things got a lot more fun for Michigan. The Wolverines hit seven of their next 12 shots, including two threes, to take a four point lead into halftime. It was a nice run, keyed by Matt Vogrich, but this was still anybody’s game.
After the break, Michigan exploded. The Wolverines opened the second half on a 19-2 run and kept their feet on the gas the rest of the way for a 75-45 trouncing. In the second half, Michigan shot 71 percent on twos and 55 percent on threes, driving them to a 1.36 efficiency without the benefit of a free throw. This was Beilein Ball at its finest.
Perhaps more impressive was the defensive effort after the break. In catchup mode, Tennessee was relegated to hoisting shot after shot from deep, and they made just 14 percent of them. More importantly, Michigan forced turnovers on nearly a third of Tennessee’s second half possessions. It was just an unreal performance, and the Volunteers were held to 0.52 points per trip in the second half. For the full game, Tennessee was held to a 0.71 efficiency, easily their lowest output of the season. The Volunteers faced a long list of good defenses this season--Pitt, Connecticut, Belmont, USC, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky--and none of them stopped Tennessee as well as Michigan just did. These Wolverines have proven their defensive prowess down the stretch in a big way.
Seven Wolverines scored at least eight points apiece, led by Zack Novak’s 14-10 double-double. Darius Morris posted 8 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists, while Stu Douglass put up 11 points, 5 assists, and just 1 turnover.
As their reward, the Wolverines moved onto to Sunday's matchup with the Duke Blue Devils. Michigan hung right with the defending national champions for the entire first half, using the standard Beilein Ball formula (low turnovers, lots of threes) to score 1.10 points per possession heading into the break. Michigan's offense was working against one of the nation's best defensive teams. Unfortunately, Duke was dominating in every other facet of the game, shooting 91 percent on twos and rebounding 42 percent of their misses. It was enough to give the Blue Devils a four point halftime lead.
Over the first 10 minutes of the second half, Duke took complete control of the game. A lead that had temporarily gotten as small as two points ballooned to 15. From there, Michigan wouldn't give up, and they chipped away at that lead until they were within eight with just over three minutes remaining. It would still take a phenomenal effort to win this game, but at least the Wolverines had kept contact.
From there, Tim Hardaway Jr. tried to provide that phenomenal effort, scoring seven straight points to make it a one point game with 1:28 remaining. On the ensuing possession, Duke missed a three but retained possession, leading to a made Kyrie Irving jumper. Michigan had the ball, down three, with 32 seconds remaining.
Darius Morris would make a layup to bring the lead back down to a point, and Duke's Nolan Smith made only one of two free throws at the other end. As the clock ran down, Morris drove into the lane and got a great look at a game-tying shot, but missed it. Duke retrieved the rebound and Michigan's season ended with a 73-71 loss.
The impressive result here was how effective Michigan's offense was against Duke. For the game, the Wolverines scored 1.16 points per possession--only St. John's hung a better output on the Blue Devils this season. It was true to form for John Beilein's better offensive teams, with a tiny turnover rate, fair enough three-point accuracy (33 percent), and a high conversion rate on twos (63 percent).
Five Wolverines finished in double figures, led by Morris' 16 points and 6 assists. Hardaway scored 15 points on 12 shots, and Evan Smotryczchipped in 13 points on 7 hoists.
Despite the loss, the season has to be considered an overwhelming success for Beilein and his team. Michigan had lost two all-conference type performers in Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, yet got a lot better at both ends. There's already a lot of talk about Michigan being the early favorite for the 2011-12 Big Ten title--understandably so, as the Wolverines don't figure to lose anyone off this roster. That may be a bit premature--remember, this team finished with a negative efficiency margin in conference play--but the future is definitely bright in Ann Arbor.
Thursday, March 17, 2011, 4:20 PM
In a thrilling back-and-forth game that could have gone either way, Penn State saw their season come to an end with a 66-64 loss to Temple. The Nittany Lions got off to an ideal start, scoring 20 points on their first 13 possessions and taking an early nine point lead. Talor Battle was on a roll in his first ever NCAA Tournament appearance, hitting three of four from downtown, and his running mate Jeff Brooks had six points and two assists. The Nittany Lions were looking unstoppable.
Less than two minutes later, Brooks drew his second foul and was relegated to the bench. From there, things turned sour for Penn State, as Temple outscored them 22-13 the rest of the half. The Nittany Lions were down two points at the break, but Ed Dechellis probably figured he'd be able to use Brooks for the entire second half thanks to his long benching.
Instead, only a minute and change passed in the second half before Brooks suffered a shoulder injury that would keep him out for good. Penn State would have to win this one without their best rebounder and second-best scorer. That's no easy feat, but it was one the Nittany Lions came tantalizingly close to accomplishing.
Penn State relied on a typically low turnover rate and some timely three-point shooting to keep up with the Owls sans Brooks, but the same old defensive woes prevented the Lions from taking control. In the game's waning moments, Talor Battle nailed a huge three--from at least 5 feet behind the line--to even the score with 14 seconds remaining. It was a moment that illustrated why we Geeks were so excited to see Battle get his chance in the Tournament.
Temple, as you'd expect, held for the final shot, and Penn State's defense did well to force Temple guard Juan Fernandez into a tough two. Fernandez shot just 37 percent on twos this season, and this was by no means a good look, but the Argentinian nailed it anyway to end Penn State's season in heartbreaking fashion.
For the game, Penn State scored 1.10 points per possession--an impressive total considering Jeff Brooks' 10 minutes of playing time. The Nittany Lions shot well from all over the court, including 42 percent from three, and turned it over on just 15.5 percent of their trips. This should have been enough scoring to get a victory, as only four teams had scored this well on Temple all season, including Duke, Villanova, and Xavier. This was truly a fantastic scoring effort from Penn State.
Talor Battle ended his career with 23 points on 21 shots, while David Jackson chipped in 14 points on 11 shots. Tim Frazier continued his fantastic finish to the season with 15 points (6 shots), 5 rebounds, and 7 assists. Frazier quietly shot 60 percent on threes over his final 10 games (9-15), giving some hope that he'll be able to increase his output next season as one of the team's main guys.
Unfortunately, all that good offense went for naught, as Penn State allowed Temple to shoot 61 percent on twos and score 1.14 points per possession. That end of the floor was the problem for Penn State all season, and it ultimately led to their demise. It was a very good season for the Nittany Lions, but to come so close to an NCAA Tournament win and fall short has to sting.
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Michigan State got off to a wretched start against UCLA, falling behind 7-0 right out of the gates. Things wouldn't get any better for the rest of the first half, as the Spartans turned it over on 28 percent of their possessions and shot terribly (35 percent on twos, 14 percent on threes). All the while, the Bruins, not normally a great rebounding team, were dominating the glass at both ends and retrieving over half of their misses. When the dust settled, Michigan State went into halftime staring at an 18 point deficit.
After the break, it appeared that Tom Izzo had spoken some sense into his team, and the Spartan offense suddenly looked crisp in a quick 11-2 run. The lead, which had briefly touched 20 points, was down to 11 with 16 minutes remaining. Michigan State had hope.
After some back and forth play, UCLA went on a run of their own, this one 15-2 over just seven possessions, to swell the lead to 23 points. That outburst was the only positive stretch of the second half for the Bruins, but it would prove to be just enough to hold off the Spartans. Michigan State kept fighting and nailing threes down the stretch, and UCLA kept missing free throws, allowing the Spartans to claw within a single point on a Keith Appling three with 4.4 seconds left. UCLA then went to the foul line, made the first, and missed the second, but the Spartans were out of timeouts and Kalin Lucas hurried into a travel as he prepared for a half court heave. UCLA prevailed by a 78-76 score.
This game was a microcosm of Michigan State's season, with a terrible start forcing them to play in desperation mode down the stretch. The Spartans absolutely dominated the second half, scoring at 1.39 points per trip and holding UCLA to a 0.96 efficiency, but they had already dug themselves too deep a hole.
Lucas had a very rough night--he didn't score until a breakaway layup with just 7:44 remaining and finished with 11 points (14 shots), 5 assists, and 4 turnovers. Draymond Green did all he could, posting a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists, along with 4 steals. Durrell Summers put up 15 points on 15 shots in his final game in a Michigan State uniform.
So ends a disappointing season for the Spartans, one that began with inflated preseason expectations and ended with a whimper. Looking back at Michigan State's schedule, there really weren't a lot of terrible results if you simply had considered the Spartans a middling Big Ten team from the start. Their four nonconference losses were to teams that all currently reside in Pomeroy's top 14, and the conference losses that looked bad at the time (at Penn State, vs Michigan) turned out to not be so bad after all. The only real headscratcher was the blowout loss at Iowa. This was a decent team weighed down by unrealistic expectations, a problem they don't figure to have this fall.
- Posted by Mike Portscheller
Tuesday, March 8, 2011, 2:05 PM
Josh: Well, Mike, time for one last exchange before the Big Ten Tournament starts. Usually, this space is reserved to analyze what we did right, and what we did wrong. I'll get the hard part out the way: we were so, so wrong about Purdue. Epically wrong. Not even in the ballpark. We guessed 9-9, and it turns out they were better than perhaps any team in the conference last season. So how did we miss the mark so badly? Well, while I think most people have it in their minds that Jeff Brooks or Christian Watford were this year's breakout players, there's a good argument to be made for JaJuan Johnson. He shot better on 2s, 3s, free throws, and significantly lowered his turnovers, and he did all of this while increasing his usage and with defenses focusing on him more. I have to say, I didn't see that coming. Beyond that, while there weren't any huge leaps within the supporting cast, every night seemed to feature at least one third scorer. It's as if the Boilers were on a chore schedule. Beyond that, I think we missed on Michigan State, though we missed less than everyone else did. Hard to believe, but this was a consensus top-5 team in the preseason. Neither you or I were all that impressed, and ranked them 4th in the Big Ten. Well, turns out even that was optimistic. Looking back, the obvious problems were on offense. MSU posted the second-worst offensive numbers in the conference, and what dragged it down was two point shooting, where the Spartans ranked dead last. It's very difficult to believe that a Tom Izzo-coached team can struggle so much in the paint, but that's what happened. How? Well, from my view Draymond Green took a step back, and Durrell Summers took about three steps back. Kalin Lucas was in top form, but his upside will always be limited because he's a short player who insists on attempting a lot of two point shots. While MSU might still make the tournament, it's hard to see them doing any real damage if they get there. As for next season, Tom Izzo needs Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne to grow up in a hurry, and he also needs to figure out who will be his point guard. There are a lot of questions in East Lansing. OK, over to you to explain the two small miracles in the Big Ten--Penn State and Michigan. Oh, and here are some final efficiency numbers to chew on Mike: Great summary of those misses--we definitely were way off on Purdue. You're spot-on about JaJuan Johnson; he went from being a merely good Big Ten center to being (rightly) involved in National Player of the Year discussions. His heavy diet of midrange shots still holds him back a bit, but he's so good at that shot that he gets away with it (Johnson shot a hair under 50 percent on twos in Big Ten play). The only real negative side effect of all the outside play has been his big drop in free throw rate--Johnson led the Big Ten in getting to the line last season, and this year he's just 11th. Still, this is nitpicking, as Johnson has had a phenomenal senior season and Purdue looks like a Final Four contender. With Penn State, the bigger question may be: why were they so mediocre in nonconference play? If Penn State took care of business at home against Maine and got a win at Mississippi, neither of which would look difficult right now, they'd probably be on the right side of the bubble instead of needing a big run in Indianapolis. I think our preseason take on the Nittany Lions was reasonable, as we saw Talor Battle, David Jackson, and not much else, but the emergence of Jeff Brooks really changed that offense. Brooks was a bad bench player in his first two seasons, then he started to show signs of his ability as a junior. This season, Brooks put it all together and has become one of the conference's most accurate shooters. In my mind, the unexpected play of Brooks accounts for most of Penn State's over-achievement. As for Michigan, there were just surprises all over the place. Darius Morris went from a timid low-usage freshman to a ball-dominating sophomore, and he got more efficient in the process. Tim Hardaway Jr. came in as a 3-star freshman and put up an offensive season that would be good enough for first-team honors in some years. Jordan Morgan led the Big Ten in field goal percentage as a redshirt freshman. Those three players were off-the-charts surprises, and their emergence allowed the rest of the roster to just play their roles. But maybe we shouldn't be too surprised by the offense--John Beilein has established himself as a great offensive coach, and playing within his system surely helped these young guys. The big surprise is how well Michigan has defended. Seeing such a young team finish just outside the nation's top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency is truly impressive, especially considering their lack of height inside. If the Coach of the Year award goes to the guy whose team most exceeded expectations, it's hard to give it to anyone but Beilein. All that said, it's interesting to see that the Wolverines finished with the same negative efficiency margin as freefalling 6-12 Minnesota. The answer may be obvious, but what went wrong for the Gophers?Josh: You're right, the answer seems obvious, and maybe Al Nolen is the Bob Sanders of the Big Ten. But maybe it's not that simple. After all, the Gophers had the most problems on offense, and that's not really Nolen's calling card. In fact, Al Nolen might be the worst pickup game player in the conference, because almost all of his offensive production is tied up in his ability to get to the free throw line. What killed Minnesota, really, is that they only had one Blake Hoffarber. Even though this team liked a three pointer about as much as Pat Knight (just 25.9% of their attempts were 3s), they were still incredibly inaccurate (just 29.6%). The Hoff played well enough, but everyone else on the team was putrid from the outside. Opposing defenses recognized this, sagged off the Gophers, and the result was a crowded paint area that was well defended and led to far too many turnovers. Yes, losing Al Nolen hurt quite a bit. But I wonder if it's the other point guard they lost, Devoe Joseph, that was the bigger absence. What about Northwestern? I didn't think they would dance this season, but I expected better than this. Was this all because Shurna was banged up for most of the season? Mike: You could certainly make that argument on the offensive end. Shurna's junior season was nowhere near as productive as his sophomore one, and I'm sure at least some of that stems from his injury. Shurna's dropoff probably explains the dip in Northwestern's offensive output (from 1.08 ppp last season to 1.06 ppp this year). Still, the big issue--and it feels like we've been saying this forever--is the Wildcats' defense. We knew Northwestern would have a good-to-great offense, and we always said the key for them getting into the NCAA Tournament would be shoring up that D. There was literally zero improvement on that end of the floor, and the result is another losing conference record and (probably) another NIT bid. Northwestern is no longer short, yet they allowed Big Ten opponents to shoot 56.5 percent on twos. You just aren't going to stop anybody with a number like that. If I'm a Northwestern fan, I start to wonder if Bill Carmody is ever going to be able to put a decent defense on the floor.I'll let you handle possibly the conference's biggest enigma--what's up with this Illinois team? Are they capable of finally putting together a run, or are they doomed to finish with a whimper?Josh: Your guess on the Illini is as good as mine. This is Team Schizo. In tempo free terms, they've only been as good as the 08-09 Illini in conference play, but they were better than that in the non-conference slate. Sure, some close-game back luck has visited them, and the free throw "defense" has been bad, but this team does not play like it's full of seniors. Specifically, they do not value the basketball as much as they should. If they hold onto the basketball, this can be a great team. You know how Ohio State broke the 80.0 eFG mark against Wisconsin, and everyone is raving about how good the Buckeyes look? Yeah, Illinois has done that to a Big Ten team as well this season. Twice. So I'm not ruling anything out. Before we go patting ourselves on the back for correctly pegging Ohio State and Wisconsin, tell me about Iowa and Indiana, and the rebuilding efforts going on there. Which team has a brighter future? Mike: Before the season started, I would have thought that was a silly question. Iowa has played a lot better than I expected this season, especially freshman Melsahn Basabe. We've said it many times, but it's hard to believe that this guy was all signed up to play at Siena. He'll give the Hawkeyes a legitimate big man to build around for the next three seasons. Iowa's other young players have struggled offensively, but it does look like Fran McCaffery has that program going in the right direction.Still, despite finishing behind Iowa this season, you have to like the future for the Hoosiers. There's clearly talent on that team, and most of it is just finishing its freshman or sophomore campaign. On top of that, Tom Crean has a huge recruit coming next season in Cody Zeller, and the next two classes after that should be very kind to IU as well. This exhibits the huge difference between rebuilding at Indiana and rebuilding at Iowa--the Hoosier state produces a heck of a lot more talent. Indiana will get back on the national map at some point, but it may not be until Crean's fifth or sixth season. That's a long process, but rebuilding from zero takes time. The first step is to stop fouling like maniacs.Ok, commence back-patting. Ohio State and Wisconsin--we were in on these teams before most, but what have they done that you didn't expect?Josh: Well, for starters, I did not expect the Big Ten to feature the #1 (Wisconsin) and #2 (Ohio State) offenses in the country. What's more, they're not really close to anyone else. The points per possession differential between Ohio State and the next highest team (Notre Dame) is roughly the difference between Notre Dame and the #12 team. What I did expect, however, is for these teams to retain their stripes. Wisconsin scores via turnover minimization, while Ohio State is just deadly from the field. Indeed, the Badgers had the lowest turnover percentage by a power conference team, well, maybe ever (I can only find numbers going back to 1996-97). Of course, the season isn't over, and the 2005-06 West Virginia Beileiners might still have something to say about that. Record-breaking or not, this Wisconsin team is the ultimate example of a team that doesn't beat themselves. They hold onto the ball of course, but they also lead the country in free throw percentage. Also, in true Bo Ryan fashion, they crash the defensive glass (but rarely gamble for steals or blocks). Sure, it's a little throwback, but it's very effective. There's a reason your 7th grade basketball coach was trying to get everyone to made good passes, practice free throws, and rebound--it works. Of course, that's not to say there isn't talent on this Wisconsin team. I think both Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer are legitimate NBA prospects, and stand to make lots of dough from their ability to create shots without being reckless. Nonetheless, no one would dare accuse Ohio State of lacking in talent. Thad's been recruiting at a high level for years now, so it's kind of ho-hum at this point, but for those that love the "eye test," the Buckeyes look like the best team in the country. In terms of individual, developed, talent, I'm not sure there's another team out there that comes close (Kansas? Maybe?). What's also nice is how well the pieces fit together. You have the big man in the middle, of course, and he's the engine that makes them go. But there's also a couple of deadeye shooters that punish teams for collapsing, a slasher that prevents opponents from closing out to hard, and a couple of great defensive players in Aaron Craft and Dallas Lauderdale. Everything just fits so well--they're like the Voltron of college basketball. And that's why they're going to show up as champs on a lot of office brackets. Before I send it over to you for some final thoughts, I just want to comment a bit about the great untold story of this season's Big Ten. Obviously, the class of 2007 has been powering the league for 4 years now, and it'll stretch into five next season as the likes of Trevor Mbakwe finish out their careers. Certainly though, there's going to be a big dropoff. But there's also been a rebirth of sorts in the conference. Frankly, I can't remember a season with so many productive freshmen since, well, the class of 2007 landed. Obviously, Jared Sullinger is the main draw. But there's also Tim Hardaway, Jr., who would be the runaway Freshman of the Year in any other season. Guys like Melsahn Basabe, Victor Oladipo, and Jereme Richmond have also been very good in conference play. But this is a deep class too--DeShaun Thomas might be the best scorer of the bunch, Jordan Morgan is an extremely advanced big man, Aaron Craft is already one of the 5 best defenders in the Big Ten, and Josh Gasser was extremely efficient (albeit with a low shot diet). And there's more talent in the well, too. Keith Appling and Adreian Payne were highly-touted recruits, as was Illinois' Meyers Leonard and OSU's Jordan Sibert. Eventually, some of those guys will round into form as well. So while, yes, the Big Ten will be worse next year than this season, it's only a temporary setback. The class of 2010 has ensured the conference will be strong for years to come. OK, I'll send it over to you for some final thoughts, and to reveal the All-Geek Team. Mike: Well said on the classes of 2007 and 2010. The conference will indeed see a dip next season, and, assuming Sullinger leaves for the NBA, the Big Ten race will be wide open. Most of the teams in the lower half of the conference return almost everyone (Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern), while the teams at the top will see a lot of turnover. It's obviously too early to know, but it's possible that next season's Big Ten won't have a single Final Four contender, so we should enjoy this month's NCAA Tournament runs while we can.As far as the All-Geek Team, I think we're in complete agreement about the first four: Jordan Taylor, JaJuan Johnson, Jon Leuer, and Jared Sullinger. All of these guys used up lots of possessions in a very efficient manner for very good teams. The last spot is a little more up-for-grabs. From prior discussions we've had, I think this one comes down to scoring guards E'Twaun Moore and Talor Battle and rebounding monster Trevor Mbakwe. Who gets the honors and why?Josh: You're certainly no Larry King, Mike. Well, I think you're right on the three finalists, so now I'll judge between them. As I wrote elsewhere, Trevor Mbakwe appears to be very good defensively, if not the best defensive player in the conference. Of course, I understand if there are skeptics out there. For one, the Gophers sported just the 5th best defense in the conference. Then there's also the fact that Stops does not punish a player for fouling. Indeed, it's really just about, well, stops. There's no real punishment for bad defense, just rewards for good defense. So there's definitely limitations. I'll come back to Mbakwe in a minute. Between the two guards, I'd probably pick Moore. Offensively, the two were very close, with a slight edge to Battle. But Moore puts up the better defensive numbers on a better defensive team--it seems clear he's got the edge on defense. So that leaves a battle between Moore and Mbakwe. Putting Stops aside for the moment, let's make the defensive case for Mbakwe. He led the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.3). You have to go back to 2001-02 to find a mark that high (Reggie Evans). And Evans just tied him--you have to go back to 1996-97 to find a higher percentage (posted by one of the original Flintstones, Antonio Smith). Mbakwe's rebounding isn't all he brings, either. He's also fifth in the league in block percentage. Mbakwe also grabs a healthy number of steals for a big man. And Stops certainly isn't a worthless stat, as it correlates with year-over-year gains and losses on the defensive end. Overall, I just see a huge edge for Mbakwe on defense, and his offense is certainly good enough for the 2nd team on its own. So that's my pick, Trevor Mbakwe. I don't think one offensive rebound would ever be captured against the All Geek Team: Jordan TaylorJaJuan JohnsonJared SullingerJon LeuerTrevor MbakweWell, it's been a heck of a season, Mike, but still a lot of basketball left. See you in Indianapolis.
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